Offseason starts

[BlackIce]

And now the next domino falls.  The salary cap for next year was just announced at $79.5 million.  I just don't see how that is going to be enough to sign Carlson for market value, give Wilson a healthy raise, AND fill out the rest of the roster, even if most of the rest are sub-million dollar players.  The numbers just don't add up, unless a player or two with a larger salary is moved.  One obvious candidate is Burakovsky.  Even a Beagle won't save you very much, because his current hit is $1.75 million.


It really looks as though the choice comes down to either pay Carlson and Wilson and have close to minimum salary players fill out the last half-dozen spots on the roster, or let Carlson go, pay Wilson, and have significant room to sign whoever else of the vets you want -- and maybe even add a $2-3 million defenseman to occupy Carlson's spot (I won't say "replace him" because that's unreasonable to expect.)

[DC_1908]

And now the next domino falls.  The salary cap for next year was just announced at $79.5 million.  I just don't see how that is going to be enough to sign Carlson for market value, give Wilson a healthy raise, AND fill out the rest of the roster, even if most of the rest are sub-million dollar players.  The numbers just don't add up, unless a player or two with a larger salary is moved.  One obvious candidate is Burakovsky.  Even a Beagle won't save you very much, because his current hit is $1.75 million.


It really looks as though the choice comes down to either pay Carlson and Wilson and have close to minimum salary players fill out the last half-dozen spots on the roster, or let Carlson go, pay Wilson, and have significant room to sign whoever else of the vets you want -- and maybe even add a $2-3 million defenseman to occupy Carlson's spot (I won't say "replace him" because that's unreasonable to expect.)

This will really depend on the coach and the market.


Right now given the big salaries we already have, the cap space, Wilson and Holts coming up, and the questionable orginizational depth (Hershey finished last), I can’t see throwing 7-8m and a lot of years on one player.


Sure, it probably “could” be done, but it would all but certainly come back to bight us in the ass next year if not sooner.


I’m all for letting Carson go get 8m, and find a respectable Dman to take his spot at half the price.

[justwincaps]

This will really depend on the coach and the market.


Right now given the big salaries we already have, the cap space, Wilson and Holts coming up, and the questionable orginizational depth (Hershey finished last), I can’t see throwing 7-8m and a lot of years on one player.


Sure, it probably “could” be done, but it would all but certainly come back to bight us in the ass next year if not sooner.


I’m all for letting Carson go get 8m, and find a respectable Dman to take his spot at half the price.

Completely agree with letting JC go.   Please let someone else overpay him and use that "saved" money elsewhere.   I'm afraid GMBM may see us in a short window with with Ovie and Backstrom and use that to sign Carlson to keep "the gang" together for a shot at a repeat.   Carlson would be hard to replace, but $8M in cap relief to shore up others areas and hopefully get a serviceable D-man seems the better path to me.

[Ozzies09tc]

Grubs and Orpik to Avs for a 2nd

[BlackIce]

Grubs and Orpik to Avs for a 2nd

That may seem like not a whole lot in return, but the key to the deal was not what they could get for Grubauer, it was getting rid of Orpik's salary.  You can bet your booties that NOW they are going to do everything they can to sign Carlson and probably Kempny as well.  One big problem with the Caps' salary structure all along was that Orpik's contract lasted one year past the end of Carlson's.  Now that $5.5 million problem is gone, and they didn't even have to buy him out, which would have given some, but not as much, cap relief and dragged the issue out another year.

[chas]

Grubs and Orpik to Avs for a 2nd

Grubauer is a starting goaltender on practically any other team.  Good for him and thankfully in the other conference.

[BlackIce]

So here's where the team stands at this moment:


9 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goalie currently signed and on the active NHL roster.  They are


Ovie                Kuzy            __________
Vrana              Backy           Oshie
Bura                Eller             Connolly
Stephenson      _______      __________




Orlov             Niskanen
________      ___________
Djoos            ___________




Holtby


So obviously, we need to sign, resign, or otherwise bring up to the roster 4 defensemen, 4 forwards, and a backup goalie at minimum; i.e., 9 players.


The current total cap hit of the 13 players listed above is $57.4 million, leaving us about $22 million under the $79.5 million cap.


If we sign Wilson (which is a certainty) and Carlson (far from a certainty), it will probably cost us somewhere between $11 million and $12 million of cap space, leaving us $10 million + for the other 7 players.

[/size][size=78%] Kempny, Smith-Pelly, and Beagle might cost us a total of $5-6 million, leaving us $4 million + for the other 4 players.[/size]
[/size]
[/size][size=78%]Bowey is almost a certainty to be on the roster full-time next year.  He is due a bit of a raise, though I'd hope not too much of one -- maybe $1.3 million or so.  The other 3 players would HAVE to be minimum salary players.  This makes me think that not all of Kempny, Beagle, and Smith-Pelly are going to be signed, which would save a million or so dollars apiece if minimum-salary players are used instead.  I think Kempny would be my first priority to sign, though with the good end of season he had someone might try to steal him out from under us.[/size]
[/size]
[/size]
[/size][size=78%]Sorry about the change of font -- I don't know how that happened.[/size]

[Ozzies09tc]

It's been said in a few articles pheonix copley will backup holtbeast next year.


I believe he is on a minimum salary so there's another roster spot filled with little cap used.

[waynerivers]

That may seem like not a whole lot in return, but the key to the deal was not what they could get for Grubauer, it was getting rid of Orpik's salary.  You can bet your booties that NOW they are going to do everything they can to sign Carlson and probably Kempny as well.  One big problem with the Caps' salary structure all along was that Orpik's contract lasted one year past the end of Carlson's.  Now that $5.5 million problem is gone, and they didn't even have to buy him out, which would have given some, but not as much, cap relief and dragged the issue out another year.

Seems like it's all about the money now.  So, we basically gave away Grubauer in order to lavish money on Carlson.  Now, I think Carlson should be resigned but it wasn't too long ago that everybody hated him for his defensive lapses.  I wonder how long it might be until that happens again, especially if we don't add a physical d-man to replace Orpik.  Orpik was getting up there but he was reliable.

[BlackIce]

Seems like it's all about the money now.  So, we basically gave away Grubauer in order to lavish money on Carlson.  Now, I think Carlson should be resigned but it wasn't too long ago that everybody hated him for his defensive lapses.  I wonder how long it might be until that happens again, especially if we don't add a physical d-man to replace Orpik.  Orpik was getting up there but he was reliable.

Oh, it's ABSOLUTELY all about the money.  Now I realize you had images of getting more in return for Grubauer, and MacLellan said that he could have gotten at least a bit higher draft choice for Gruby alone.  But before you pooh-pooh a mid 2nd round draft pick, remember that Grubauer was a 4th rounder.  Adding Orpik actually detracted from the return, and in fact, the Avalanche have made clear that Orpik will not be in their organization when the season starts.


From the Caps' point of view, their choices boiled down to


(1) No Grubauer, the draft pick they got, Orpik still on the team next year, no Carlson


vs.


(2) No Grubauer, a better draft pick, Orpik and his salary cap hit gone, good chance to resign Carlson


The Caps chose (2).  Would you have chosen differently?

[4 Caps]

What is interesting is that Colorado has put Orpik on waivers for purposes of buying out his contract.  If he clears waivers and Colorado buys out his contract he becomes an UFA and the Caps could re-sign him for 1.25 million and with the money he receives from Colorado he would be making the same as he did last season.  If BMac pulls this off that would be amazing. 

[Devise]

What is interesting is that Colorado has put Orpik on waivers for purposes of buying out his contract.  If he clears waivers and Colorado buys out his contract he becomes an UFA and the Caps could re-sign him for 1.25 million and with the money he receives from Colorado he would be making the same as he did last season.  If BMac pulls this off that would be amazing.

Seems like that was the plan all along. Wouldn't shock me if Orpik and his agent also are fine with doing this. Everyone recognizes the business aspect here, and if Colorado had no interest in his contract, while he may see more dollar offers, with how tight the salary cap is and his age I don't see anyone having any problems with us coming in and getting him back for cheaper.


He'll probably be worse next season, but his play in the playoffs and leadership especially as more Hershey D are likely to come up is pretty much needed in the LR. If somehow our first rounder this season plays, or tries to get into the line up. Given Orpiks size, and play style, I'd much rather he be the one to work with and mentor that kid than some of our other veteran options.

[BlackIce]

It's now early Sunday morning.  At noon, other teams can start talking to Carlson/his agent about Carlson's services in preparation for the UFA feeding frenzy on July 1.  MacLellan said during the draft that he would like to get Carlson signed before that deadline arrives.  We'll see -- the clock is ticking.

[Beaglefan2]

Let the clock run out. Signing Carlson to a 5+ year contract at $8 million a year would be a huge mistake.


 Let’s re-sign Orpik on the cheap and sign Kempney. Bowey showed good promise last year and Djoos is ok. Then we have Orlov and Nisky and we see if any of our Prospects can provide some depth - or add a free agent.


Carlson had a good year and racked up some stats (funny how that happens in a contract year). For the long term, I really, really don’t want him at a big price.

[4 Caps]

I have said it before but I will say it again the Caps have no chance of going back to back if they don’t re-sign John Carlson.  However, I am confident that Carlson will be back next season.  But I was confident that Trotz was returning too so we will have to wait and see. 

[Maacoshark]

What is interesting is that Colorado has put Orpik on waivers for purposes of buying out his contract.  If he clears waivers and Colorado buys out his contract he becomes an UFA and the Caps could re-sign him for 1.25 million and with the money he receives from Colorado he would be making the same as he did last season.  If BMac pulls this off that would be amazing.

      That would be a pretty good deal.

[Maacoshark]

Let the clock run out. Signing Carlson to a 5+ year contract at $8 million a year would be a huge mistake.


 Let’s re-sign Orpik on the cheap and sign Kempney. Bowey showed good promise last year and Djoos is ok. Then we have Orlov and Nisky and we see if any of our Prospects can provide some depth - or add a free agent.


Carlson had a good year and racked up some stats (funny how that happens in a contract year). For the long term, I really, really don’t want him at a big price.

   Carlson didnt just play well offensively. His overall game was very solid. I really really want us to sign Carlson but I hope its for less than 8 per. Dont want an 8 year deal either. I was hoping for 6 years at around 7.5 mil per season. I bet we give him more just because of the lack of options.

[BlackIce]

You can hope all you want, but some other team WILL give him $8 million AAV for 7 years, so he isn't going to be resigned for less money AND less term.


If you don't want Carlson back by committing essentially that much to him, then you don't want him back, period.  And I'm not being critical; there is a perfectly reasonable argument that he isn't worth that much, and we should pass on him.  The issue, of course, is that we won't be able to replace him with a similar talent through UFA (money only), and replacing him with comparable talent through trade would cost serious assets in players/prospects/draft picks and probably open up other holes on the roster.

[DC_1908]

You can hope all you want, but some other team WILL give him $8 million AAV for 7 years, so he isn't going to be resigned for less money AND less term.


If you don't want Carlson back by committing essentially that much to him, then you don't want him back, period.  And I'm not being critical; there is a perfectly reasonable argument that he isn't worth that much, and we should pass on him.  The issue, of course, is that we won't be able to replace him with a similar talent through UFA (money only), and replacing him with comparable talent through trade would cost serious assets in players/prospects/draft picks and probably open up other holes on the roster.

Well with the system we the Cup with, we don’t need to pay a top 5 or 3 point totaling Dman.  So replanting him in with that mind could and should work to our advantage.

[BlackIce]

Well, it is now 4 pm, well after the time when impending UFA's can begin talking to other teams.  We have heard nothing about whether or not Carlson has been resigned, which I interpret as meaning he hasn't.  Whether that means that talks have broken down, they are in the final stages of negotiating the crossed t's and dotted i's, there has been a mutual agreement that Carlson will talk to other teams, or whatever, we have no idea, because there seems to be a news blackout.


This situation, even more than the Trotz negotiation, is the linchpin of this offseason; almost everything else the team does this summer, with the possible exception of whatever deal they eventually give Wilson, hinges on what happens in with Carlson.  It would be nice if the team would give us a status report, no matter how brief.