Talk about Capitals hockey & more! > Washington Capitals & Other Hockey Discussion
Nicky v Holts
zerofox:
--- Quote from: alta on Wednesday January 01, 2020, 03:14:02 PM Eastern ---
Holts is not the reason this team is losing right now, nor is he the reason everyone in front of him is playing like shit. But he is part of the reason this team is still in first place. Are you part of the lockerrroom staff? I ask because you seem to know more about what's going on than the rest of us. Like who's forcing the decision to play Holts over Samsonov. He is, and did earn the #1 spot. I see no reason to take that from him at this point. Especially when looking at how the rest of the team has played in the last 5 games. Maybe we should bench the team and tell Hershey to send everyone.
I'm not ready to upset the ship just yet. We know the flu is going through the lockerrroom right now, and it could be another week before everyone is back to normal. This team hasn't given their normal hard physical game in the last three, and the decision making in the ice has been atrocious. I know the flu effects me similarly, when I feel one coming on the motorcycle gets parked and the American Express stays in the safe. Usually for about a week. Multiply that by 30 people and it's going to take longer.
Personally, I don't see any $10M a year goalies in this league, and if the salary cap doesn't go up significantly in the next two years those contracts are going bite some teams in the ass. Worse than what the Caps are dealing with.
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Our team is in first place IN SPITE of Holtby's struggles (although yes I agree he's not the only one to blame for any struggles we have as a team). We have one of the most high powered offenses in the league and our defense, despite how much we say it sucks, is actually pretty middle of the road. Hate to break it to you but .900 SV% and a GAA of 3.0 is not an elite goalie. Not worth $10 million a year. Not even worth $6-7 million a year. The problem is Holtby earned his #1 spot years ago, and now he's still considered the de facto #1. Sammy gets the back to back starts, otherwise if Holts has a bad game they put him in again instead of giving someone who has a higher probability of being a goalie of the future some more practice. I'm not saying Sammy IS the goalie of the future, but I'm saying Holtby is NOT. Unless he's willing to take south of $6 million. Otherwise I don't think he's worth it.
4 Caps:
Another factor in whether we should sign Holtby is the expansion draft coming up in June of 21. I am sure Holtby will want a no movement clause in any contract he signs so as to guarantee that the team will not expose him in the expansion draft. I doubt whether the Caps would agree to such a clause because they would have to expose Samsonov and the Caps will not want to do that. I therefore do not see the Caps re-signing Holtby.
BlackIce:
What Alta said.
It is impossible to judge the play of the team right now because of the health issues going through the clubhouse. My wife has had what might be somewhat the same thing this past week, and she is sleeping more and doesn't have quite the pep she usually has. Not having "quite the pep" can make all the difference in a sport like hockey where extreme effort is crucial to success.
In the Backstrom vs. Holtby discussion there is a broader, longer-term perspective that needs to come into play. I've seen some commentary from within and outside the organization that this season might be the last one as a viable Cup contender for the current roster, because too much of the core is getting too far along in their careers to maintain the team's top-tier status. It's hard for me to judge how valid this opinion is, especially since the team is at the top of the league -- at this point. But the thinking seems to be that as the stars continue to age, if the team core is kept relatively stable it will slowly but steadily fall out of top-contender status, simply because father time is undefeated. (Or it may happen that the team goes off a cliff relatively suddenly -- it's happened to a lot of aging sports teams over the years, and hockey is a rough sport that can cause players to cross performance "tipping points" suddenly.)
So the organization really is at a crossroads here. The goalie situation is unique because of the rules for the upcoming expansion draft, which is going to dictate the moves for that position more than any other. But we are now coming up to fish-or-cut-bait time with Backstrom and then Ovechkin. The feeling is that they should remain Caps for the duration of their careers, but if the "conventional wisdom" plays out and the team morphs into a "pretty good, but not really a Cup contender" team, should we really sign those guys to multi-year contracts to be the foundation of a slow (or not-so-slow) fade?
Would it be better to sign neither Backstrom nor Holtby, maybe not sign Ovechkin (or maybe Ovie sees the writing on the wall when neither is signed, and decides on his own not to resign), take our lumps, get back in the lottery or even sink toward the bottom of the league, and reset the team in a fundamental way? The Caps have made a heroic ongoing attempt to field a top-flight team without really high draft choices for the past decade, and have drafted very well in the latter stages of the first round, especially. But time may be running out. The future team trajectory is fundamentally different if the Caps sign Backstrom and Ovie for some more years at, say, $18 million annually between them, or if they don't.
4 Caps:
BlackIce you make a good point about the aging of the team but I will be totally shocked if the Caps don’t re-sign Backstrom and Ovie. I really think the feeling of management and ownership is that Backstrom and Ovie will retire as Capitals after having played their entire career as Capitals.
RavenCp:
--- Quote from: DC_1908 on Wednesday January 01, 2020, 02:33:08 PM Eastern ---It’s not as so much as Holts vs Sammy. . . It’s a matter of GMBetaMale using EA Sports to do the salary cap.
The “optimists” are thinking Sammy is the next “hot rookie/young superstar goalie” like The Hens and Blues had. Which is not only a major risk after he’s made a starter, but the risk is the following years.
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I don't have much on this subject, just except keep using more Samsonov, because he'll probably will stay longer with Caps and people move their asses when feel competition, and it works for Holtby as well. Besides it can help in bargaining.
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