Author Topic: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN  (Read 43767 times)

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Offline 4 Caps

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #220 on: Thursday March 21, 2019, 07:11:01 AM Eastern »



Pardon my French, but this is baloney.  The Caps came out (how much was Reirden, how much was the players putting their nose to the grindstone I can't say, of course) with a plan that was fundamentally different from what they traditionally do.  Their (reported) hitting was more than it's been in virtually all games this year.  They put basically a shot a minute on goal.  That IS more than they've done all season and probably top 10 in their history, and contrary to their philosophy of setting up to get the best possible shot at the expense.  They came out with gusto against a team that has been on fire all year, when they were in the back half of a back-to-back and Tampa wasn't.  To say that this team gave "no effort" in allowing 5 goals is NONSENSE!!!  Pure and utter NONSENSE!!!  There's no crying in hockey.  The team DID man up and the top 3 D all played extra minutes, with Kempny out and Orpik/Jensen not playin all that much.  Where's your evidence of crying???  Sometimes the result isn't what you want, but stop ragging on these guys for no rational reason.  They showed grit in keeping at it until the end, tied it in the last minute, and lost in the OT, which doesn't mean anything for the playoffs anyway because you don't see 3-3 then.  Please quit trying to shoehorn what actually happened on the ice into your distorted view of reality.
Great post Blackice.  Couldn’t agree more. Caps set a franchise record with 58 SOG.  if you want to look for a reason we lost the game it was special teams.  TB was 3 for 3 on the PP and we were 1 for 6.  Have to do better, our PK was doing so well lately that this was disappointing.  We had so many opportunities to clear the puck and we failed.  Great game though to watch. 

Offline richkrt99

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #221 on: Thursday March 21, 2019, 08:35:42 AM Eastern »
Caps outplayed them for most of the game.  I was happy with the effort.  Some bad calls (which happens) and a couple lucky bounces were the difference.  It happens.
What I do feel good about is the Caps were the better team last night.  They put forth the effort.  They hit, they hustled, they did NOT quit when it was 3-1 and I thought it was over. They battled, and played really well against the very best team there is.


Yes PK could have been better, but Tampa is Really Really good, and give them 3 PP goals and that's the game.  Plus one of those was just a bad bounce off Carlson's foot and another was lucky bounce right to a guy's stick.  I was pissed cause we DID have a chance to clear the puck multiple times and failed.  We did commit some turnovers that hemmed us in, but Tampa is the best team in hockey so they will make you pay for those little moments of failure.


The Caps outplayed the best team in hockey.  Not the end result we wanted, but you can't be unhappy with the overall effort.  That level of effort will win 75% of games.


Their goalie was excellent.  He and the bad calls and bounces were the difference.


Take away one or two of the BS penalties (which WON'T be called in a playoff series) and the Caps win this game


I'll trade our 6 PP chances to their 3.  We beat them at 5 on 5 (last night)


What this game showed me was that the Caps can compete with Tampa which I really did not think we could.  Can they do so enough to win a 7 game series?  I sure hope we get the chance to find out.


Any word on Kempny?   I never saw anything that would cause a leg injury - unless it was some falling on him after the scrum


Anyway, good game by the Caps overall.


Go Caps

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Offline BlackIce

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #222 on: Thursday March 21, 2019, 08:50:48 AM Eastern »
Two comments:


(1)  I wasn't around for most of last night's game because of a church commitment.  Didn't realize that 58 shots was a franchise record, but I guess in retrospect I'm not surprised.


(2)  In the playoff/Division race, don't sleep on Carolina.  They are 7 points behind us, with two games in hand.  Their next two games are our leftovers -- they play Tampa tonight and Minnesota Saturday, both games the 2nd of road back-to-backs for those teams with Carolina sitting at home, having not having played the night before.  Then comes the home-and-home we have with them next week, and after that they have a seemingly easier road to the end than we do ("seemingly" because any team can beat any other on a given night.)  In point of fact, Carolina DOES have an outside, but legitimate path to the Metro title.

Offline Mickstix

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #223 on: Thursday March 21, 2019, 09:09:56 AM Eastern »
Any word on Kempny?   I never saw anything that would cause a leg injury - unless it was some falling on him after the scrum


Rierden said "He's going to miss some time" He needed a break anyway.. Hopefully it's not a months type injury and is only a weeks type..


(2)  In the playoff/Division race, don't sleep on Carolina.  In point of fact, Carolina DOES have an outside, but legitimate path to the Metro title.


I couldn't care less if we win the division or have an extra home playoff game.. Didn't need it last year, wasted it in years past and our home record this year isn't anything to be excited about.

This is how a Euro-nonfigjtef handles himself, against a 6’3” player with a few fights under his belt


His pussy ass didn't really wait till he was 30 to have his first fight did he??  :snicker:  Give the kid a break.. So he got a bloody nose! So what!! At least he dropped the gloves.. Something you should build off instead of repeatedly pissing on him..  :uh-huh:

Offline DC_1908

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #224 on: Thursday March 21, 2019, 10:39:54 AM Eastern »



Pardon my French, but this is baloney.  The Caps came out (how much was Reirden, how much was the players putting their nose to the grindstone I can't say, of course) with a plan that was fundamentally different from what they traditionally do.  Their (reported) hitting was more than it's been in virtually all games this year.  They put basically a shot a minute on goal.  That IS more than they've done all season and probably top 10 in their history, and contrary to their philosophy of setting up to get the best possible shot at the expense.  They came out with gusto against a team that has been on fire all year, when they were in the back half of a back-to-back and Tampa wasn't.  To say that this team gave "no effort" in allowing 5 goals is NONSENSE!!!  Pure and utter NONSENSE!!!  There's no crying in hockey.  The team DID man up and the top 3 D all played extra minutes, with Kempny out and Orpik/Jensen not playin all that much.  Where's your evidence of crying???  Sometimes the result isn't what you want, but stop ragging on these guys for no rational reason.  They showed grit in keeping at it until the end, tied it in the last minute, and lost in the OT, which doesn't mean anything for the playoffs anyway because you don't see 3-3 then.  Please quit trying to shoehorn what actually happened on the ice into your distorted
 view of reality.
Like hell it is baloney!  What’s baloney, no bullshit, giving this team and coach praise for allowing 5 goals because you are entertained by woman’s rules hockey, not to mention your, though amusing, is your continued attempts to challenge and disgrace me.


You do NOT know what you’re talking about when it comes to this sport, you only think and act like you do.  You simply  know your entertainment, and refuse to learn thing one hear because ya like to think you’re smartest person on here  which is the only  “distorted view of reality”


But hey, I’ll continue to lecture you, and give two examples, of which  you should of already learned on here by now, of how this loss was on Reidon.  So you pointed out that despite being down a D, Jensen and Orpik played 11:32, and 12:00 respectively while Orlov, know for mistakes, played 24:54 and committed 3 turnovers, allowed the GWG in OT, and should be praised for his effort. Now while  in today’s Woman’s Hockey League it’s generally common when trailing to sit your defensive pair when trailing, being down a D can, and in a one goal game, (which indicates a possibility of pulling a goalie and a possible 3 on 3), and in a good position in the standings with the playoffs coming up shortly, can should and will change that.  Now Hooks is aging, not particularly fast, and isn’t an offensive juggernaut, but is not completely useless in this case, yet instead of adjusting personnel and play calls, crossed of Kempys name and put Orlovs name in twice resulting in 25 min of ice time.


A second, though not the last,example is Kuzy.  The best move Reidon did was swap Kuzy and Nick that kept Kuzy away from Stamkos and Now this will come as a surprise, but that is a terrible match up as aside from pretty skating and the occasional pretty passes, Stamkos is superior in every aspect. Let’s not forget Kucherev(?sp who cares), is also on that line. So good on Reidon for daring to change his line up card.  However, Kuzy was again 33% on face offs, yet continues to take them.  Believe it or not, there is a way to work around this, here’s how and the evidemce:   You may not of heard of Dave Steckel, but when he was here he was an elite face off expert.  What BB would do is send him out for the faceoff, after which he would head to the bench and the center he took the faceoff for would come on. This one person change is low risk as you more than likely as you typically  have possession, if not you have a better defensive player on the ice until you do.  BB, Hunter, Oates, and Trorz all did this with Steckel and/or Beagle.  They even would have the Brouwer or Ward just take the faceoff regardless of what dot there on. So, why not do that with Dowd (75% last game), Stevenson or Boyd?  No they aren’t even close to Steckel or Beagle, but they sure as hell better than Kuzy.


These two examples not only apply to the last game, but illustrate two examples of how Reidon fails to adjust (aka treating every game like any other game).  Now Reidon is an NHL coach and ive said noyjknv hr hasn’t seen before.  But these and other examples imply some combination of his over-confidence in his system, inability to get the players to execute adjustments, or just following orders.


Yes the players are on the ice, and score or allow the goals.  But like any other team sport, the real war is between the coaches.  Now you can “get by” and win some  with weapons and some luck, but not for long.

Offline HoustonCapsFan

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #225 on: Thursday March 21, 2019, 11:19:29 AM Eastern »
Blah.  Can't go 0 for 3 on the PK and expect to win.  There were some high points, some low.  Bottom line, I think this game should show that Tampa is not invincible.  Gotta have better effort on the PK.

Offline alta

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #226 on: Thursday March 21, 2019, 11:28:50 AM Eastern »

I have to admit, it is tempting to rag on the refs, but I'm getting tired of it. 



The officiating was the typical crap last night, but that wasn't the reason the Caps lost. In an overall very good game, there were some serious defense lapses. That is what lost the game.
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Offline DC_1908

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #227 on: Thursday March 21, 2019, 11:37:13 AM Eastern »
Blah.  Can't go 0 for 3 on the PK and expect to win.  There were some high points, some low.  Bottom line, I think this game should show that Tampa is not invincible.  Gotta have better effort on the PK.
Granted, this roster wasn’t built with the PK being a priority, but that isn’t the only reason the PK is pathetic. With almost a whole season of ingame experience, scouting and video review, it’s pretty damn clear teams have learned how to score on our PK.


Reidon and  his staff need to go to back to the white board and come up with a better PK scheme before this gets any worse

Offline HoustonCapsFan

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #228 on: Thursday March 21, 2019, 01:00:50 PM Eastern »
Granted, this roster wasn’t built with the PK being a priority, but that isn’t the only reason the PK is pathetic. With almost a whole season of ingame experience, scouting and video review, it’s pretty damn clear teams have learned how to score on our PK.


Reidon and  his staff need to go to back to the white board and come up with a better PK scheme before this gets any worse


I'm fine with it not being a priority, you can't have everything.  However, you have to be able to at least occasionally kill a penalty against a top flight unit like Tampa.  I agree they need to do something with this god awful unit. 

Offline BlackIce

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #229 on: Thursday March 21, 2019, 09:33:46 PM Eastern »
Like hell it is baloney!  What’s baloney, no bullshit, giving this team and coach praise for allowing 5 goals because you are entertained by woman’s rules hockey, not to mention your, though amusing, is your continued attempts to challenge and disgrace me.


You do NOT know what you’re talking about when it comes to this sport, you only think and act like you do.  You simply  know your entertainment, and refuse to learn thing one hear because ya like to think you’re smartest person on here  which is the only  “distorted view of reality”


But hey, I’ll continue to lecture you, and give two examples, of which  you should of already learned on here by now, of how this loss was on Reidon.  So you pointed out that despite being down a D, Jensen and Orpik played 11:32, and 12:00 respectively while Orlov, know for mistakes, played 24:54 and committed 3 turnovers, allowed the GWG in OT, and should be praised for his effort. Now while  in today’s Woman’s Hockey League it’s generally common when trailing to sit your defensive pair when trailing, being down a D can, and in a one goal game, (which indicates a possibility of pulling a goalie and a possible 3 on 3), and in a good position in the standings with the playoffs coming up shortly, can should and will change that.  Now Hooks is aging, not particularly fast, and isn’t an offensive juggernaut, but is not completely useless in this case, yet instead of adjusting personnel and play calls, crossed of Kempys name and put Orlovs name in twice resulting in 25 min of ice time.


A second, though not the last,example is Kuzy.  The best move Reidon did was swap Kuzy and Nick that kept Kuzy away from Stamkos and Now this will come as a surprise, but that is a terrible match up as aside from pretty skating and the occasional pretty passes, Stamkos is superior in every aspect. Let’s not forget Kucherev(?sp who cares), is also on that line. So good on Reidon for daring to change his line up card.  However, Kuzy was again 33% on face offs, yet continues to take them.  Believe it or not, there is a way to work around this, here’s how and the evidemce:   You may not of heard of Dave Steckel, but when he was here he was an elite face off expert.  What BB would do is send him out for the faceoff, after which he would head to the bench and the center he took the faceoff for would come on. This one person change is low risk as you more than likely as you typically  have possession, if not you have a better defensive player on the ice until you do.  BB, Hunter, Oates, and Trorz all did this with Steckel and/or Beagle.  They even would have the Brouwer or Ward just take the faceoff regardless of what dot there on. So, why not do that with Dowd (75% last game), Stevenson or Boyd?  No they aren’t even close to Steckel or Beagle, but they sure as hell better than Kuzy.


These two examples not only apply to the last game, but illustrate two examples of how Reidon fails to adjust (aka treating every game like any other game).  Now Reidon is an NHL coach and ive said noyjknv hr hasn’t seen before.  But these and other examples imply some combination of his over-confidence in his system, inability to get the players to execute adjustments, or just following orders.


Yes the players are on the ice, and score or allow the goals.  But like any other team sport, the real war is between the coaches.  Now you can “get by” and win some  with weapons and some luck, but not for long.




If you want to see someone who won't learn anything and doesn't know what he thinks he knows, there is a mirror on the wall over there.


Now I wonder why Reirden didn't play Orpik more?  Could it be because, since he is slow, he simply can't handle Tampa's top lines consistently, so his exposure has to be limited? Frankly, after Kempny was lost, I bet if anything Reirden was sorry he hadn't started Djoos rather than Orpik as the 3rd LHD.  Djoos can't move people, but he might be able to keep up with the waterbugs a little better.


Yeah, I've never hear of David Steckel.  Right.  My first Caps jersey was Steckel's -- he was my favorite player in the time he was here, though he was one of those soft players you don't seem to like.  Sure, I remember seeing Steckel take the important face-offs and get off the ice, just like Beagle did in the past few years.  I suspect the Caps would do that if they had someone they could depend on consistently in the face-off dot.  But they don't.  C'mon - you chide about overreaching on stats.  One game of face-offs isn't a reliable stat for Dowd.  Face-off stats bounce around from game to game for a lot of guys.


You really ought to get off your high horse and realize there are other opinions besides yours.

Offline DC_1908

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #230 on: Thursday March 21, 2019, 09:53:34 PM Eastern »



If you want to see someone who won't learn anything and doesn't know what he thinks he knows, there is a mirror on the wall over there.
Sorry, was I a bit over your head, or dead right about you?  Don’t worry, you, me and plenty others know I was both.  You’re response by simply maintaining your weak and failed personal assaults on me instead of addressing the points I provided just provides all the “evidence” needed to prove that.

Heh fell for the Steckel trap. 

But, looks like 33% faceoffs is reliable in your mind.  Dowd is also at 50 (which looks great on this team), and was 75% that game.  So what does 75% tell you, a luckey day?   Or is he winning because he’s figured out the opposition?   Keep in mind all TBLs centers are over 50% this year.  So parade a <40% faceoff winner out against one of four centers who are ovet 50% because no one else is reliable? 

Yeah. Hooks is slow, I said that.  So what?  You can’t start him on the D zone? Can’t quick change him? Can’t figure out something that won’t expose a mistake prone D for over 20min by double shifting him?  Why?

I said that this loss was mainly on Reidon and his unwillingness, or inability to adjust to anything that isn’t just another game.  All you did was justifiy and apologize for it:

One game of 75% isn’t reliable for  a 50% season long percentage, so its pointless to swap him in for a center that’s <40% for both that game and year.

And Hooks is slow, so it’s right to leave him on the bench whole exposing and overworking a mistake prone D

Your opinion” is this team the greatest and Reidon can do little no wrong because that’s just “today’s NHL”.  But hey, it’s easier and more entertaining than being logical, objective, and analytical.

Offline BlackIce

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #231 on: Thursday March 21, 2019, 10:25:21 PM Eastern »
🤣🤣🤣 Sorry, was I a bit over your head, or dead right about you?  Don’t worry, you, me and plenty others know I was both.  You’re response by simply maintaining your weak and failed personal assaults on me instead of addressing the points I provided just provides all the “evidence” needed to prove that.


All right -- try this.  When did you see Steckel or Beagle take the ice specifically for a face-off late in the game?  Generally it was when the team was protecting a lead, or maybe tied.  Kuznetsov was taking face-offs late in the game because THE CAPS WERE BEHIND.  In that circumstance you don't put a 4th line guy out there for the face-off and hope you can find a chance to get him off the ice; you go with the offensive guy.  There of course is another reason why Dowd wouldn't take face-offs in place of Kuzy, and that is because Kuzy generally takes face-offs where you want a LH in the dot, which by the way is on the far side of the ice from the bench, and more difficult to get a change.  Dowd is RH.  Now Stephenson could then be used in place of Kuzy  because he is also LH, but I don't think Reirden trusts Stephenson to do much of anything.  He has shown very little this season.


Frankly, I'd like to hear what others think about your and my reasoning and thoughtfulness in understanding the nuances of the game.  I personally know NOTHING of what you say I know regarding your and my takes on the game.


And where have I ever said that this team is "the greatest?"  You're putting words in my mouth that I've never said.  I've pointed out both strengths and weaknesses of this team.  You seem fixated on what this team can't do in your opinion, and say almost nothing about what they can do.

Offline DC_1908

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #232 on: Thursday March 21, 2019, 11:13:14 PM Eastern »

All right -- try this.  When did you see Steckel or Beagle take the ice specifically for a face-off late in the game?  Generally it was when the team was protecting a lead, or maybe tied.  Kuznetsov was taking face-offs late in the game because THE CAPS WERE BEHIND.  In that circumstance you don't put a 4th line guy out there for the face-off and hope you can find a chance to get him off the ice; you go with the offensive guy.  There of course is another reason why Dowd wouldn't take face-offs in place of Kuzy, and that is because Kuzy generally takes face-offs where you want a LH in the dot, which by the way is on the far side of the ice from the bench, and more difficult to get a change.  Dowd is RH.  Now Stephenson could then be used in place of Kuzy  because he is also LH, but I don't think Reirden trusts Stephenson to do much of anything.  He has shown very little this season.


Frankly, I'd like to hear what others think about your and my reasoning and thoughtfulness in understanding the nuances of the game.  I personally know NOTHING of what you say I know regarding your and my takes on the game.


And where have I ever said that this team is "the greatest?"  You're putting words in my mouth that I've never said.  I've pointed out both strengths and weaknesses of this team.  You seem fixated on what this team can't do in your opinion, and say almost nothing about what they can do.
what the hell ever man.. Now that bullshit up there, while humorous  is “just balonety”.

So, your advocating to keeping a 30% face winner because the other guy is a “4th liner”, they’re trailing, and the face off dot.  All of which completely justifies loosing 60% of faceoffs because these things are law in “Today’s NHL”, and no one can work around them.
Great analysis and understanding of the game there pal!  We don’t need faceoffs, we have Kuzy right?


I also didn’t put words in your mouth.  You have shown to be a just a  hero worshiping zzealot, You only echos weakness that are brought up by others and tries to sell it anc lecture it as his own “expertice”.  Faceoffs and are a problem, well no shot!!!

Look at this thread! You praised the “effort”, acknowledged the PK sucks, and defended Reirdon in a 5-4 loss,

So, I gave you only two examples of  possibilities Reirdon could have done to increase the chances of winning, or helped to lose.  So what, with your vast knowledge of nuances , did you see that he could of done differently?
« Last Edit: Friday March 22, 2019, 08:18:25 AM Eastern by DC_1908 »

Offline Kaz

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #233 on: Friday March 22, 2019, 05:43:14 PM Eastern »
Longtime listener, first-time caller.


Blackice is right about the faceoff issue.  The Steckel/Beagle point is moot because we don't have a faceoff specialist anymore.  There isn't anyone we can use (especially LH) to utilize the tactic you're describing.  Sheltering Kuznetsov's deployments isn't much of an option, and the only worthwhile wings we have in our top 6 that can reasonably help with faceoffs are both right-handed.  So this was an odd point to bring up as a criticism of Reirden.


The Orpik vs. Orlov point is a lesser of two evils thing.  With Kempny hurt, Orlov is our best LD.  Unfortunately he's also all the things that DC says he is, which makes the loss of Kempny that much worse.  What this amounts to would typically be a reason to NOT shelter your 3rd pair if they can play.  Jensen has been solid since his arrival and the chemistry with Orpik isn't terrible.  With Kempny out we need that pair to eat more minutes.


Tampa is a bad metric to make that kind of choice.  If this continues versus lesser teams, I'd consider shuffling the pairs if it'd help Reirden distribute minutes better.


Getting edged out in OT by the best team in the league isn't terrible.  The PP goals sank us, and refs swallow their whistles in the playoffs, so I'm not that concerned.  I think we can hang with them at evens.  Dialing up the physical play without taking penalties would be key.


I'm not wild about Reirden's coaching this year either, but Tampa is a bitch to match up with for any team.

Offline DC_1908

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #234 on: Saturday March 23, 2019, 12:33:49 AM Eastern »
Longtime listener, first-time caller.


Blackice is right about the faceoff issue.  The Steckel/Beagle point is moot because we don't have a faceoff specialist anymore.  There isn't anyone we can use (especially LH) to utilize the tactic you're describing.  Sheltering Kuznetsov's deployments isn't much of an option, and the only worthwhile wings we have in our top 6 that can reasonably help with faceoffs are both right-handed.  So this was an odd point to bring up as a criticism of Reirden.


The Orpik vs. Orlov point is a lesser of two evils thing.  With Kempny hurt, Orlov is our best LD.  Unfortunately he's also all the things that DC says he is, which makes the loss of Kempny that much worse.  What this amounts to would typically be a reason to NOT shelter your 3rd pair if they can play.  Jensen has been solid since his arrival and the chemistry with Orpik isn't terrible.  With Kempny out we need that pair to eat more minutes.


Tampa is a bad metric to make that kind of choice.  If this continues versus lesser teams, I'd consider shuffling the pairs if it'd help Reirden distribute minutes better.


Getting edged out in OT by the best team in the league isn't terrible.  The PP goals sank us, and refs swallow their whistles in the playoffs, so I'm not that concerned.  I think we can hang with them at evens.  Dialing up the physical play without taking penalties would be key.


I'm not wild about Reirden's coaching this year either, but Tampa is a bitch to match up with for any team.
Fair enogh, but I’m not suggesting swaping a faceoff for Backstrom or even Eller, but for a center that is under 40% not only for a routine basis, but for a season and career. 

What’s better a 60-70% chance  of loosing on the correct side, or a 50, even 40% chance of loosing on the wrong or unconventional side?

I’d completely agree with you almost all of time.  But when a center who takes a large amount of your faceoffs, after four years still can’t win 40% of them on a regular bastdwhat else do you thaj putting someone in that that will win 50 or even 40% of them?

Now, given in the game in question they had  last  change there where some options, ie Wilon did a right hand, Backstrom for a left hand  based on the situation. or send someone else that won’t typically  loose 70% of time.

In short, after 4-5 years, still fllat out sucks at faceoffs,  so I suggest a reasonable why to compensate for it

Offline Kaz

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #235 on: Saturday March 23, 2019, 01:04:40 AM Eastern »
Quote
I’d completely agree with you almost all of time.  But when a center who takes a large amount of your faceoffs, after four years still can’t win 40% of them on a regular bastdwhat else do you thaj putting someone in that that will win 50 or even 40% of them?


Because it makes very little difference.  Kuznetsov takes about 14 faceoffs a game.  He wins about 5.5 of them on average.  Dowd averages 7 out of every 14.  So we're talking about 1 or 2 faceoffs per game.  Dowd is also a righty, so he's not the ideal guy to sub in for Kuzy regardless.


So when you don't have a faceoff stud on the roster, you address lackluster faceoff numbers by sheltering zone starts, and only then if the difference is glaring.  But when the choice is Eller or Backstrom -- guys with only a 10% better chance at winning the draw than Kuzy -- then you just play Kuzy.  In the D zone, sure, go with the percentages to prevent direct scoring chances off the draw, but since all of our LH faceoff guys are sub-50% the actual difference is minimal.


There are many other things you can do to mitigate faceoff weaknesses.  Guys with known issues often just go for the contest -- just swiping/shoveling at it or stick-checking so they don't lose them cleanly, minimizing direct chances against.  Hell, just anticipating losing a draw is often preparation enough.


In other words, faceoffs aren't the end of the world.  It's a good thing to be good at, but it's rarely crucial. 


If you're losing because of 1.5 faceoffs per game, you have much bigger problems.

Offline DC_1908

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #236 on: Saturday March 23, 2019, 10:03:50 AM Eastern »

Because it makes very little difference.  Kuznetsov takes about 14 faceoffs a game.  He wins about 5.5 of them on average.  Dowd averages 7 out of every 14.  So we're talking about 1 or 2 faceoffs per game.  Dowd is also a righty, so he's not the ideal guy to sub in for Kuzy regardless.


So when you don't have a faceoff stud on the roster, you address lackluster faceoff numbers by sheltering zone starts, and only then if the difference is glaring.  But when the choice is Eller or Backstrom -- guys with only a 10% better chance at winning the draw than Kuzy -- then you just play Kuzy.  In the D zone, sure, go with the percentages to prevent direct scoring chances off the draw, but since all of our LH faceoff guys are sub-50% the actual difference is minimal.


There are many other things you can do to mitigate faceoff weaknesses.  Guys with known issues often just go for the contest -- just swiping/shoveling at it or stick-checking so they don't lose them cleanly, minimizing direct chances against.  Hell, just anticipating losing a draw is often preparation enough.


In other words, faceoffs aren't the end of the world.  It's a good thing to be good at, but it's rarely crucial. 


If you're losing because of 1.5 fachoeoffs per game, you have much bigger problems.
Again, correc and I agree.  Generally speaking, it isn’t that big of a deal early in or over the course of the regular season. Particularly, with the stupid new rules they put in.


However, the game in queston maybe an exception.  As we know, we gave up four goals in one period, they shut us down from midway in the second to the very end of the third where lost in OT, while being down a D.  Granted by team we edged them on faceoffs, Kuzy was getting throttled by TBL.  He took the most faceoffs on the team that game went 5 for 15 over all, doing good in the offensive zone going 3 for 7 in the offensive zone, 2 for 5 in the Nutral Zone, and 0 for 3 in the defensive zone.  When you factor in not only the score situation, the plays with some of our top scores and two of our best defensive players, that’s a lot of opportunities handed over to the other team.


We also had the last change, so Reirdon could have easily sent one of the other three centers that where doing better to take faceoffs for him.


Yes, this was not the sole reason for the loss, and most times we can get buy with his abysmal faceoff
percentage, by protecting him by zone etc   But when you allow five goals and get shut down for most of the game, the center taking the most faceoffs was only wins 5 of 15 is a bigger factor in the loss than it normally would be.


Offline Kaz

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #237 on: Saturday March 23, 2019, 01:27:58 PM Eastern »
But again, everyone else is dodgy at faceoffs, too.  If you have a guy that's routinely 60%, yes, you might consider a strategic deployment or two.  But we don't have that guy.  We have guys that are, overall, 10% better than Kuzy.


You can't double-shift Backstrom because you benefit greatly from him getting proper rest AND the matchups you want with him.  So your only alternative is Eller, a guy that is just as streaky at the dot.  You're also surrendering your matchup selection with Kuznetsov, easily one of your most dangerous forwards -- all for a 10% better chance at winning one faceoff.  That's not a good idea.


You're overestimating the importance of faceoffs.  0% on the PK, 16% on the PP.  That's what did us in.  Kuzy being brutal at the dot was a non-issue because of how they managed his deployment.  We dominated at evens, took only 3 penalties, had twice as many hits, twice as many shots, and won as many faceoffs as could be expected.


0-for-3 on the PK.  1-for-6 on the man advantage.  That was the ballgame.
« Last Edit: Sunday March 24, 2019, 09:20:45 AM Eastern by DC_1908 »

Offline Surreylily

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #238 on: Saturday March 23, 2019, 08:29:23 PM Eastern »
Longtime listener, first-time caller.


Blackice is right about the faceoff issue.  The Steckel/Beagle point is moot because we don't have a faceoff specialist anymore.  There isn't anyone we can use (especially LH) to utilize the tactic you're describing.  Sheltering Kuznetsov's deployments isn't much of an option, and the only worthwhile wings we have in our top 6 that can reasonably help with faceoffs are both right-handed.  So this was an odd point to bring up as a criticism of Reirden.


The Orpik vs. Orlov point is a lesser of two evils thing.  With Kempny hurt, Orlov is our best LD.  Unfortunately he's also all the things that DC says he is, which makes the loss of Kempny that much worse.  What this amounts to would typically be a reason to NOT shelter your 3rd pair if they can play.  Jensen has been solid since his arrival and the chemistry with Orpik isn't terrible.  With Kempny out we need that pair to eat more minutes.


Tampa is a bad metric to make that kind of choice.  If this continues versus lesser teams, I'd consider shuffling the pairs if it'd help Reirden distribute minutes better.


Getting edged out in OT by the best team in the league isn't terrible.  The PP goals sank us, and refs swallow their whistles in the playoffs, so I'm not that concerned.  I think we can hang with them at evens.  Dialing up the physical play without taking penalties would be key.


I'm not wild about Reirden's coaching this year either, but Tampa is a bitch to match up with for any team.
Wow!And welcome.   ;D
I am

Offline DC_1908

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Re: GDT#74 Lightning @ Capitals 7:30pm Wed Mar 20, 2019 NBCSN
« Reply #239 on: Sunday March 24, 2019, 12:08:48 PM Eastern »
But again, everyone else is dodgy at faceoffs, too.  If you have a guy that's routinely 60%, yes, you might consider a strategic deployment or two.  But we don't have that guy.  We have guys that are, overall, 10% better than Kuzy.


You can't double-shift Backstrom because you benefit greatly from him getting proper rest AND the matchups you want with him.  So your only alternative is Eller, a guy that is just as streaky at the dot.  You're also surrendering your matchup selection with Kuznetsov, easily one of your most dangerous forwards -- all for a 10% better chance at winning one faceoff.  That's not a good idea.


You're overestimating the importance of faceoffs.  0% on the PK, 16% on the PP.  That's what did us in.  Kuzy being brutal at the dot was a non-issue because of how they managed his deployment.  We dominated at evens, took only 3 penalties, had twice as many hits, twice as many shots, and won as many faceoffs as could be expected.


0-for-3 on the PK.  1-for-6 on the man advantage.  That was the ballgame.
Sure, but (now I don’t have the exact stats I’m front of me), there is easily a correlation between the Kuzys faceoffs and the 1-6 PP.  I also don’t have the exact data in front of me, but loosing faceoffs on the PowerPlay, eats into the two minutes you have.  So, in the case of the Power Play our faceoffs become greatly more important than even strength, Now, when your power playis working and your leadijng, then sure it’s of lesser importance.  But if your PP isn’t working, obviously you need every advantage you can get, risk nothing. and don’t just hope for luck.


If you continue to put one of the (maybe the worst), starting center taking faceoffs, who also is a complete defensive liability, when you also have a questionable D, you can typically trace a large amount of the other teams opportunities, failed power plays, or even a goals, a the faceoff loss.


Now yes, a 10-20% improvement only amounts to 2 or 3 faceoff wins, that still is 2 or 3 more opportunities for the other team that could by putting someone else in the dot.