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POLL: Capitals Goalie going into the playoffs
BlackIce:
I just looked at Grubauer's appearances this season.
17 have come against Non-playoff teams.
15 have come against playoff teams.
2 have come against potential playoff/bubble teams (Colorado/Florida)
OOPS - my bad. Colorado is a playoff team at the moment, so the count should really be 17/16/1 or 18/16 if you want to count the Panthers out.
Since, besides the Caps as a playoff team half the league will be playoff teams and half won't, a "representative" set of appearances would be about half and half. Grubauer is very close to that. So at least this season the statement that Grubauer has played mostly/basically against lesser teams is not true.
Maacoshark:
--- Quote from: BlackIce on Tuesday April 03, 2018, 09:42:41 PM Eastern ---I just looked at Grubauer's appearances this season.
17 have come against Non-playoff teams.
15 have come against playoff teams.
2 have come against potential playoff/bubble teams (Colorado/Florida)
OOPS - my bad. Colorado is a playoff team at the moment, so the count should really be 17/16/1 or 18/16 if you want to count the Panthers out.
Since, besides the Caps as a playoff team half the league will be playoff teams and half won't, a "representative" set of appearances would be about half and half. Grubauer is very close to that. So at least this season the statement that Grubauer has played mostly/basically against lesser teams is not true.
--- End quote ---
You included the games that Grubauer came in relief. Those shouldn't be included.
Grubauer started 12 games against teams that are currently in a playoff spot and 15 against teams outside the playoffs. 3 starts against Buffalo, 2 against Montreal and the Rangers, also had started against Ottawa, Arizona, Detroit and Vancouver. Pretty weak competition. He did have a handful of starts against some top tier teams like Tampa twice, the Pens and the Jets. Holtby definitely got the tougher matchups until Trotz gave him a rest. Same thing last season. Grubauer put up good numbers against all the bottom feeders.
BlackIce:
So pro rate the partial games. But he still played them.
Point is, he doesn't "just play against the weakest teams" as others have been saying.
And there is still the issue of the Caps playing down to the level of weaker teams, which everyone around here seems to complain about, which would make games against them "less of a picnic" or "more of a test" than they should be. Do you believe that, or not?
DC_1908:
--- Quote from: BlackIce on Wednesday April 04, 2018, 04:04:03 AM Eastern ---So pro rate the partial games. But he still played them.
Point is, he doesn't "just play against the weakest teams" as others have been saying.
And there is still the issue of the Caps playing down to the level of weaker teams, which everyone around here seems to complain about, which would make games against them "less of a picnic" or "more of a test" than they should be. Do you believe that, or not?
--- End quote ---
The issue with pro-rating would only work if you factored in the gap of the score and non poweplay shots, as moat teams teams tend to adjust their offense pressure when in the lead.
Also I think you have been taking what we said out of context. Prior to the last few weeks when there has been a rotation, Trotz wasn’t just going say “Gruby needs a game” and throw him in against a high scoring team. In fact, in the case of back to backs, he was more likely to play Grubby first so Holts played again the higher scoring/important team in the standings.
Given that alone, you don’t need to deep dive into stats to see Holtby faces the higher quality opponents in a larger volume. Therefore Grubby played less and cannot be accurately compared.
I get where your coming from, but the only real concrete data that’s gonna tell us who should start is the coaches documentation/notes from the videos as they look to see if Holtby is ready or not.
DC_1908:
What it really comes down to is ww are not in the "Cinderella Story" scenario that many think we are or want us to be in, Yes, "The Back Up taking over and winning" is always fun, but without prospective can be a disaster for all parties.
For example: The Kings, Rangers, and Canucks where all in this situation: Elite Goalies with hot back ups, the back ups where traded as there was never a question regardless of salary
Then you have Thiabult, Fluery, and Rask, Upper tier goalies with big contracts and and top prospect behind them. They where moved considering salary
Lastly I can think of Howard, and Bishop where the younger goalie was just better so there time was split or they where moved
There is practically no evidence to not say, say Holtby is an elite goalie, in fact there is ample evidence (sans getting past the second round)regardless of this slump to say he is. This slump which may in fact may have been caused by playing so much if coaches did not have faith in his backup. . .
Now, the story is this backup is better and Holtby was a fluke and a bum? In what two weeks, three at most? Mkes for a good "story", but thats it.
And for the record, I can bet that in at least 90% of the playoff scenarios, "the goalie" ours or theirs will not be the deciding factor, but will be made the "excuse" for wins and loses (ie “hot goalie” and/or “goalie controversy”)
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