Talk about Capitals hockey & more! > Washington Capitals & Other Hockey Discussion
POLL: Capitals Goalie going into the playoffs
Maacoshark:
I'm guessing you are a Holtby supporter too. I agree completely with your posts on this topic.
BlackIce:
First, I NEVER said that Holtby was a bum, or that Grubauer is better. NEVER. What I have said, consistently from the beginning, was that evidence is mounting that calls into question how much better he is, if at all, than Grubauer. In my mind it's an open question at this point. It is others who have closed their minds and said Grubauer simply isn't as good as Holtby, period.
Like it or not, if you look at last few years' goaltender stats, Grubauer is gaining on Holtby, to the point where, if you now look at the qualifying goaltender stats and limit it to the Eastern Conference, you'll notice whose name is at the top. Might Grubauer's workload be slightly less challenging than Holtby's? Perhaps. Does it make a .7 goals per game (about a 30%) difference? Welllllll, that's another question, isn't it?
This relationship is an ongoing and evolving one between the two goalies. It not only affects the decision that might be made about who starts in goal next week, it affects longer-term decisions about who to keep, who to trade potentially, how to evaluate the progression of Samsanov and, if the organization is looking at him to be the "next generation" goaltender, how to best transition to him over the next 2-4 years.
As for the immediate question, who starts in goal next week, I truly don't care. IMO an argument can be made either way, and however the organization decides, I'm fine with it. DC, you come from a different perspective, where virtually everything this organization does is wrong so it is very unlikely that they make the right decision. So be it.
KitFisto:
Trotz said this morning that the match up will factor into the decision. Philly has done well vs Grubauer so in my opinion we'll see Holtby if we draw the Flyers.
DC_1908:
--- Quote from: BlackIce on Wednesday April 04, 2018, 11:08:16 AM Eastern ---First, I NEVER said that Holtby was a bum, or that Grubauer is better. NEVER. What I have said, consistently from the beginning, was that evidence is mounting that calls into question how much better he is, if at all, than Grubauer. In my mind it's an open question at this point. It is others who have closed their minds and said Grubauer simply isn't as good as Holtby, period.
Like it or not, if you look at last few years' goaltender stats, Grubauer is gaining on Holtby, to the point where, if you now look at the qualifying goaltender stats and limit it to the Eastern Conference, you'll notice whose name is at the top. Might Grubauer's workload be slightly less challenging than Holtby's? Perhaps. Does it make a .7 goals per game (about a 30%) difference? Welllllll, that's another question, isn't it?
This relationship is an ongoing and evolving one between the two goalies. It not only affects the decision that might be made about who starts in goal next week, it affects longer-term decisions about who to keep, who to trade potentially, how to evaluate the progression of Samsanov and, if the organization is looking at him to be the "next generation" goaltender, how to best transition to him over the next 2-4 years.
As for the immediate question, who starts in goal next week, I truly don't care. IMO an argument can be made either way, and however the organization decides, I'm fine with it. DC, you come from a different perspective, where virtually everything this organization does is wrong so it is very unlikely that they make the right decision. So be it.
--- End quote ---
Apologies, To clarify is wasn't referring to you directly (and was exaggerating), but to the new "anti Holtby" mob that is popping up not just here, but all over.
I am also pointing out, that there is little if any value on doing a long term comparison of stats when the base numbers are so different, and the variables may be even more. IOW the 100 shots that Holtby faces are different than the 100 shots Grubby faces, particularly when he faces 2 or 3 times more in the time for Grubby to get 100. So from a data perspective you can not easily compare the two until the data is closer.
What your eluding to is forecasting but even that is difficult to anything more than showing two trends and predicting what they would be, Nice to look at, but in sports we simply don't have the data to do it because its highly classified within the coaching staff (I do this kind of stuff for a living by the way).
But anyways, good discussion and thanks for joining us!
HoustonCapsFan:
This is playoff hockey. We have a good problem in that we have 2 very good goalies. But, you have to go with the hot player. Of late Gruby has looked better than Holtby. Give the nod to Gruby but have a slightly longer than short leash on him.
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