Holtby

[BlackIce]

I think at this point the Caps may start Grubauer in the playoffs, but ONLY if he returns in the next week and shows that despite whatever "tweak" he suffered he hasn't skipped a beat.


I'll suggest one benefit that there may be to having Grubauer start.  If Holtby starts the playoffs it might be awfully hard to pull him, because he's been The Man for the past 4 years and until last year had shown himself to be an all-time great playoff goalie, team lack of success aside.  If you are riding your horse, it's tempting to just "dance with who brung ya."  After all, who can fault sticking with your franchise goalie?  But if Grubauer starts in the playoffs and begins to show some cracks it's much easier to make the move, because after all, you'd have the franchise goalie as your fallback option.


I really don't buy Mick's argument that the goalies would be treated equivalently -- 1 loss and a switch is made either way.  I think pedigree means something, and because of that I think Holtby would get more rope, which I don't necessarily think is a good idea this season.

[Mickstix]

If the playoff starter wins 2 in a row, they'll probably get a pass on a game 3 loss.. But lose game 1 or 2 and I think it'll spell a switch.. Place your bets! 

[DC_1908]

If the playoff starter wins 2 in a row, they'll probably get a pass on a game 3 loss.. But lose game 1 or 2 and I think it'll spell a switch.. Place your bets! 

If they switch in round one, we’re done (well. . . That’ll be one reason).   The dramatic story of the backup of an elite goalie taking a team to a Cup, so rarely works it's basically a forfeit.


But, yes The Kool Aiders will be wanting to bench Holtby after he gives up a goal on a 4 -0 rush

[DC_1908]

Like Quarterback and the Closer in baseball, fans tend to want to replace the starter when the backup does the good in the least, because to makes "a great story". . .not because its rational. They want this story so much, they begin to turn on the starter. 


Like the soccer-mom (and)/or 12yo wearing their #92 jersey who wants to pull Holtby after a goal, while ignoring, or more than likely oblivious to the fact that what lead to it was a dangling no look pass by Kuzy that went right to the other team that took it for a 3-0 as the D where behind the net. . .   At some point I wouldn't blame, and actually loved it if Holtby just moved aside and gave them an empty net.


The ONLY way this makes sense, is if Holtby has given up on this team, and wants out.  If thats the case, well need more than to hope Grubby can start.

[IDontGiveaChuk]

A few thoughts..

First, isn't he a bit of an overachiever to begin with? I'm not saying this would mean he is unable to continue to be but maybe his best days are almost behind him? Could it be that even he realizes this?

Maybe he is tired of all his underachieving teammates? As someone who plays most nights and gives his all, he has to be somewhat frustrated at times by his teams inability to get to the next level - which he has been able to do.

Maybe the Emery beatdown years ago where none of his teammates came to his defense is still in his head? Why continue to put yourself on the line for guys who don't do the same?

Consistency has been a problem for him. He has a REAL good year and then a bad year, seemingly. And as pointed out by someone else, players have ups and downs and the team has played very poorly in front of him at times. But still, the team needs to have confidence in him when he is in net and I wonder if the team has more confidence with Gruby behind them right now.

With Samsonov probably a year or two away from being nhl ready, maybe the team is nearing a window of opportunity where it makes sense to explore Holtby's trade value.

[Maacoshark]

A few thoughts..

First, isn't he a bit of an overachiever to begin with? I'm not saying this would mean he is unable to continue to be but maybe his best days are almost behind him? Could it be that even he realizes this?

Maybe he is tired of all his underachieving teammates? As someone who plays most nights and gives his all, he has to be somewhat frustrated at times by his teams inability to get to the next level - which he has been able to do.

Maybe the Emery beatdown years ago where none of his teammates came to his defense is still in his head? Why continue to put yourself on the line for guys who don't do the same?

Consistency has been a problem for him. He has a REAL good year and then a bad year, seemingly. And as pointed out by someone else, players have ups and downs and the team has played very poorly in front of him at times. But still, the team needs to have confidence in him when he is in net and I wonder if the team has more confidence with Gruby behind them right now.

With Samsonov probably a year or two away from being nhl ready, maybe the team is nearing a window of opportunity where it makes sense to explore Holtby's trade value.

   You make it sound like he has had an up and down career. This is his only poor season. He has played very well until last seasons playoffs.

[alta]

 

[DC_1908]

A few thoughts..

First, isn't he a bit of an overachiever to begin with? I'm not saying this would mean he is unable to continue to be but maybe his best days are almost behind him? Could it be that even he realizes this?

Maybe he is tired of all his underachieving teammates? As someone who plays most nights and gives his all, he has to be somewhat frustrated at times by his teams inability to get to the next level - which he has been able to do.

Maybe the Emery beatdown years ago where none of his teammates came to his defense is still in his head? Why continue to put yourself on the line for guys who don't do the same?

Consistency has been a problem for him. He has a REAL good year and then a bad year, seemingly. And as pointed out by someone else, players have ups and downs and the team has played very poorly in front of him at times. But still, the team needs to have confidence in him when he is in net and I wonder if the team has more confidence with Gruby behind them right now.

With Samsonov probably a year or two away from being nhl ready, maybe the team is nearing a window of opportunity where it makes sense to explore Holtby's trade value.

Which provided Holtby all but refuses to play here, is exactly the stupid and naive decision that Dickless and BetaMale would make.


The issue is not Holtby, it’s the clown show videogame that the fools in the front office put in front them.  This system is a nightnare for a goalie, and given enough video and scouting a non-elite goal will be crucified (Heh funny word to use on Easter)


Now you’re idea is sound, but goalies are different.  Particularly when you have an elite top three goalie and two rookies or non starters.

[waynerivers]

So this is where everyone went!  Anyway, regarding Holtby, someone in the old NG posted a trade idea of Holtby to Buffalo for Ristolainen, assuming Buffalo would make the trade. I was thinking along similar lines.  I don't know if Buffalo is the spot but a sharp GM would pull the trigger on this deal this offseason.  Holtby's skills have mildly diminished and we already know he can't do it in the playoffs when it really matters.  Plus, Grubie is ready to be a full time starter as his performance over the last few months has shown.  It makes no sense to wait because every year that passes Holtby's trade value will fall as his skills erode.  With the dire need for defensemen on this team, this is a perfect opportunity to get one or maybe two good ones.  Other teams, especially goalie starved ones, place a high value on recent Vezina winning goalies so the Caps should take advantage of that now, not in 2-3 years when the return is much less.

[DC_1908]

So this is where everyone went!  Anyway, regarding Holtby, someone in the old NG posted a trade idea of Holtby to Buffalo for Ristolainen, assuming Buffalo would make the trade. I was thinking along similar lines.  I don't know if Buffalo is the spot but a sharp GM would pull the trigger on this deal this offseason.  Holtby's skills have mildly diminished and we already know he can't do it in the playoffs when it really matters.  Plus, Grubie is ready to be a full time starter as his performance over the last few months has shown.  It makes no sense to wait because every year that passes Holtby's trade value will fall as his skills erode.  With the dire need for defensemen on this team, this is a perfect opportunity to get one or maybe two good ones.  Other teams, especially goalie starved ones, place a high value on recent Vezina winning goalies so the Caps should take advantage of that now, not in 2-3 years when the return is much less.

I highly doubt we will get many teams to agree to a “fair market”  or a benefit trade for Holts.  The reason is people know he a) wants out, or b) we want him gone, so we won’t be seeing much in return.


Besides, I think people are jumping on the “hot backup goalie” drama way to much, and not taking in all factors   Mainly, when the forwards and D get tired of playing a style where they don’t have to protect the goalie, and when teams start to get more video on him will assuredly not be pretty.


Bottom line is this probably a hot-streak and not reality


As (I think$ we have Gubby for another year, I’d trade him instead while his value is high.

[waynerivers]

I highly doubt we will get many teams to agree to a “fair market”  or a benefit trade for Holts.  The reason is people know he a) wants out, or b) we want him gone, so we won’t be seeing much in return.


Besides, I think people are jumping on the “hot backup goalie” drama way to much, and not taking in all factors   Mainly, when the forwards and D get tired of playing a style where they don’t have to protect the goalie, and when teams start to get more video on him will assuredly not be pretty.


Bottom line is this probably a hot-streak and not reality


As (I think$ we have Gubby for another year, I’d trade him instead while his value is high.

Any player who is being offered in a trade is presumably someone you're willing to part with, for whatever reason.  All other teams care about is whether they think the guy can help their team and I'm sure there are a number of teams, possibly quite a few, who would see Holtby as a good acquisition.  As far as the style we play, both goalies have to play behind it so blaming that for Holtby's regression doesn't seem like the answer.  Grubie plays under the same conditions and he's doing the job.  Also, why would you trade the younger guy who's coming into his own and keep the older one who is slipping, especially when you can probably still get good value for him?  That seems like a recipe for treading water, not improving.

[Maacoshark]

I highly doubt we will get many teams to agree to a “fair market”  or a benefit trade for Holts.  The reason is people know he a) wants out, or b) we want him gone, so we won’t be seeing much in return.


Besides, I think people are jumping on the “hot backup goalie” drama way to much, and not taking in all factors   Mainly, when the forwards and D get tired of playing a style where they don’t have to protect the goalie, and when teams start to get more video on him will assuredly not be pretty.


Bottom line is this probably a hot-streak and not reality


As (I think$ we have Gubby for another year, I’d trade him instead while his value is high.

    I agree about the backup goalie being on a hot streak. The Pens were in a similar situation and I think they let the better goalie go to Vegas. I don't want us to make the same mistake.
   I have conceded that Grubauer should probably start the playoffs because he is on a hot streak.

[justwincaps]

Reading these threads, the Caps D aren't the only ones who have given up on Holtby.

I agree that Trotz will probably ride the "hot goalie" into round 1 and will probably have a short leash on Gruby.

As for who to trade, if either, I guess it all depends on how much faith you have in Samsonov and when you think he'll be NHL ready.  If you truly think that there's no difference between Holts and Gruby, then you sign Gruby, presumably for less than whatb you're paying Holtby, and use the extra cash and trade of Holtby to get a real defensman back - [Dear God please don't use that money to sign Carlson].

I don't  know why, but for the last couple of months this team does look different playing in front of Grubauer - except for the dumbass clearing attempt from #28 last night where Grubauer had to stop Crosby point blank.  Grubauer's saves last night looked like the Holtby we are used to and one I fully expect to see again.

[Tacker]

Pro coaches and GM's, hockey included, are always inclined to make the "safe," by-the-book" choice, even when confronted with evidence to the contrary.  They feel safer going with the big-contract name player because they feel they can't be faulted, even if the name player screws up royally, whereas if the upstart doesn't get it done, then they have to answer why they took "risk."  Everybody wants risk-free, easy choices.  Life doesn't work that way, of course.


In fact, that's one of the explanations for why Las Vegas is so "surprisingly" good this year.  Most GM's stayed with the tried and true. the name players, and, therefore, sacrificed very talented young players (ahem, Schmidt), as well as other talented, but less "marquee" veterans.  The result was that the youngsters got an immediate chance to make an impact, and the more seasoned guys had high incentive to show their former GM's that they made a mistake. 


I'm near certain that Trotz, in the deep recesses of his mind, would somehow wish that Grubie screwed up, so he could just pick Holtby and not have to explain himself, or get sweaty palms by starting Grubie in the playoffs.  It makes little sense, when one looks at Grubie's sterling stats, as well as the unavoidable truth that Holtby has shown conclusively that he gets deer-in-the-headlights syndrome when it's time for the crucial save in the playoffs.  Playing Grubie is the better choice, and not just because he's hot now; he's been hot for months.


I guess there is life without taking risk.  It's just that it's played on the golf course, not the hockey rink.

[Maacoshark]

Reading these threads, the Caps D aren't the only ones who have given up on Holtby.

I agree that Trotz will probably ride the "hot goalie" into round 1 and will probably have a short leash on Gruby.

As for who to trade, if either, I guess it all depends on how much faith you have in Samsonov and when you think he'll be NHL ready.  If you truly think that there's no difference between Holts and Gruby, then you sign Gruby, presumably for less than whatb you're paying Holtby, and use the extra cash and trade of Holtby to get a real defensman back - [Dear God please don't use that money to sign Carlson].

I don't  know why, but for the last couple of months this team does look different playing in front of Grubauer - except for the dumbass clearing attempt from #28 last night where Grubauer had to stop Crosby point blank.  Grubauer's saves last night looked like the Holtby we are used to and one I fully expect to see again.

    I think the Caps will try to find away to sign Carlson because of the lack of FA dmen that will be available. But if we could make a trade for a dman that would change things. Someone mentioned earlier about trading for Ristolainen. He would be a nice addition.

[Mickstix]

Gruby's won a couple games since Jan!! He's the next Patrick Roy!  Some of you have lost your minds..  Anyone remember when Neuvirth got "hot" for a series?? I do.. 

[BlackIce]

Gruby's won a couple games since Jan!! He's the next Patrick Roy!  Some of you have lost your minds..  Anyone remember when Neuvirth got "hot" for a series?? I do.. 

Not fair, Mick.  Look at Gruby's performance last year.  Look at the year before.  He's been the better goalie for the team for the last 4 months of this year.  Sooner or later you have to look at the progression and say there might be more there than a blind squirrel rooting up an acorn.  This isn't just "a couple of games since January."

[KitFisto]

I don't think anyone thinks Grubby is better than Holtby, but he's certainly been playing better. They both play behind the same lousy defense and frankly Holy was flat out awful for a while. I go with the hot hand in the first few games see how it goes. Either way there will be those screaming "I told you so" when it's all said and done.

Caps are done in 1 or 2 rounds no matter who starts anyway.

[Mickstix]

Anything Gruby did before he was "the starter" is not really valid, imo, since he always played the lesser opponents. I'm grateful he's looked good lately, but I'm not looking forward to the results when the team goes back to turning the puck over constantly and giving up multiple odd man rush' per game..

[waynerivers]

I don't think anyone thinks Grubby is better than Holtby, but he's certainly been playing better. They both play behind the same lousy defense and frankly Holy was flat out awful for a while. I go with the hot hand in the first few games see how it goes. Either way there will be those screaming "I told you so" when it's all said and done.

Caps are done in 1 or 2 rounds no matter who starts anyway.

I agree they are not going to the conference finals.  This is all the more reason to move Holtby and shore up the defense.  Who else on the team is going to command the types of players we need and be someone we want to part with?  I feel that trading Grubauer would be a big mistake.  Holtby may return to his previous form and he may not but that's the chance you take.  Nothing comes without some risk but you have to take risks in order to get better.  It's no different than changing coaches or GM's.  The end goal is the same.