Offseason starts

[BlackIce]

The heck with this political stuff.  Back to hockey.


The Caps have to deal with Trotz.  That's relatively straightforward.  They either give him what he deserves money-wise and organization-wise and keep him, or they don't, and lose him.  I suspect this is going to shake out one way or the other relatively soon so they can deal with Reirden in a fair way.


The player situation, well, that's more complicated.  Carlson, Wilson, Beagle, Smith-Pelly, Kempny, Grubauer.  They have to be dealt with one way or the other, and there simply isn't enough money to keep them all. 


Carlson is the big fish, of course, and a lot of people around here complain about him.  I'm presuming those people may understand that it would be good having him back, but not at $8 million AAV for the next 7+ years, which is probably what it is going to take to sign him.  The problem with letting him go is that there is no other player that could reasonably be thought to be available that can replace what he brings to the table.  Are the people who don't like Carlson willing to put up with the relatively greater shortcomings of the playerwho would take his minutes and his roles next season and beyond?  Because you WILL have to put up with some of it if Carlson is no longer on the team.


I figure Wilson is a given to be resigned because of his RFA status, because he is considered so invaluable due to his role and style of play, and because he probably won't cost much more than half of what Carlson will to be resigned.  But there is probably upwards of $4 million at least next season, and maybe a bit more if the Caps want to sign him longer-term.


There just isn't enough cap room to sign those two for what it will take and deal with the others.  I don't think Beagle and Smith-Pelly can both be signed, so pick who you want.  Kempny's situation is a matter of how much he is worth to others after having a kind of breakout mini-season with the Caps.  And there may be a comparable defenseman to HIM that you can pick up over the summer.  Grubauer I think is gone, because the team wants to do right by him and give him a chance to be a starting goaltender.  So Copley will back up in net at least the first part of next season, and the Caps can always pick up a relatively low-cost journeyman if he doesn't work out.  Then the team makeup will depend on what the Caps get for Grubauer, or MAYBE Grubauer and Burakovsky, who is my pick for someone to be dealt to help make Carlson/Wilson/Smith-Pelly work under the cap.

[zerofox]

Carlson - I would hope that we could get Carlson for $6-7 million because I think that would be a relative "steal" but I think you're right in that he'll probably go for $7-8 million. I'm more for keeping him because of the huge hole he'd leave in our roster if he were gone, and not necessarily because I think he's the best thing since sliced bread. For the record I think he's a very good Dman, but probably a tier below the top tier elite Dmen of the league (the Karlsson's and Doughty's, etc).

Wilson - Keep. He's really come along as a top line RW. I had my doubts about him previously but he's really developed. I actually feel comfortable with him on the wing opposite of Ovechkin. And having a solid RW on that top line with Ovie means one HUGE thing for the rest of our depth - Oshie can play on the 2nd line with Vrana and Backy, and Connolly and Burky can play with Eller. Without Wilson occupying that 1RW spot, people move up to spots they don't belong (i.e. Conno to 2RW because Oshie is bumped up, or Conno to 1RW to replace Wilson, or top line DSP).

Beagle - Keep. I still think he's that heart and soul workhorse type of guy who needs to be kept.

Kempny - Keep. He really helped provide some stability to our defensive depth. If we keep Carlson and Kempny, I will be very confident in our defensive group. Carlson, Niskanen, Orlov, Kempny, Djoos, and Orpik I feel like is a group I can really trust. Honestly if Orpik is your 6th man, I'm fine with that. Although in a perfect world, dumping Orpik's salary and getting a cheaper alternative for a 6th Dman would be better in terms of freeing up cap space

DSP - Yeah he came through in the clutch during the playoffs, which I am forever thankful for. But if cap space becomes tight, he's probably among the lowest on my priority list.

Grubauer - Funny how during the season I was wondering if it made financial sense to trade Holtby and stick with Gruby as a starter, simply to free up cap space. I'm now back on Team Holtby but believe that as much as I like Gruby, he deserves a starting role elsewhere.

[DC_1908]

I say let Carslon go.  His cost is inflated by his stats made from his fourth forward position. Sure he had a decent playoff, but not worth 7mil.


Keeping Kempny, and going for DeHaan or Cole, or a higher value option.


This is gonna be a interesting test for the Caps front office:  do they start operating like Champions, or go back to just being OK with being a regular season team that has a chance in the playoffs

[KitFisto]

Carlson is going to get 8+ somewhere. There are only a small handful of guys that can do what he does and whIle this board may not admit his defense improved as well. There is zero chance we get him to take 6-7 million IMO. I think the best discount you might get is  7.5 so I don't expect him back.

DSP will probably go. Someone will overpay him due to the playoffs.  Thanks for the playoff heroics,  but he was also a healthy scratch at times during the season and he's replaceable on the 4th line. You can't keep him and hope he repeats the playoff performance every year. Now if he wants to take a small raise and stay then by all  ears he's welcome to.

Kempny was an amazing trade and I was asking "who"? when we got him. Need to keep him. He's a really steady guy once he settled in.

Gruby is trade bait at this point and everyone knows it.

Wilson isn't going anywhere.

Beagle I'd keep as long as someone else doesn't force a bidding war. Love the guys hard work and faceoffs. Hopefully he just wants to finish his career here.

[justwincaps]

I'm not a fan of keeping Carlson at anything north of $7 million which he will get from someone, so I'm OK with him going.  I don't think he is a strong defenseman and I think most, not necessarily all, of what he does offensively is attributable to his time on the top PP unit and can be replaced.  I can see Nisaknen running the PP next year if Carlson goes.  And since I didn't think his defense was all that impressive, I'm hoping either someone from Hershey develops [Bowey, Johansen are you listening?] or you use the money saved to go get a 2nd pairing defenseman to paur with Kempny.  The question is whether GMBM has the balls to let him walk. 

Keeping Wilson and trading Grubauer are no brainers.

Would love to keep Beagle.  What he brings off the ice is as important as on the ice and hopefully we can strike a deal that keeps him here.  Then again, I wanted to keep Hendricks, who didn't bring as much as Beagle does [aside from physicality] so some of this is sentiment.

Kempny grew on me, and most others, the longer he was here and he would be a nice 2nd line pairing for an offensive guy. 

DSP was playoff $$ and with his restricted rights we might be able to keep him in the fold.

As others have noted, Carlson's payday can't be at the expense of the contracts we have coming up in the next two years.

[alta]

The only way keeping Carlson makes sense is if he stays paired up with Kepney, and he takes a minimal raise. That paring is the only reason Carlson had a better than average year.


We have absolutely no idea what these guys want for money, and except for DSP, none of them need more money. As long as they've been smart with it. Hockey seems to have smarter players in that regard than other sports as whole. Every now and then you get some guys that understand the big picture of the salary cap, and keep their demands minimal in order to get/retain quality team mates. We can only hope we have a few of those types on this team, and that the salary cap goes up to its max potential limit.

[DC_1908]

The only way keeping Carlson makes sense is if he stays paired up with Kepney, and he takes a minimal raise. That paring is the only reason Carlson had a better than average year.


We have absolutely no idea what these guys want for money, and except for DSP, none of them need more money. As long as they've been smart with it. Hockey seems to have smarter players in that regard than other sports as whole. Every now and then you get some guys that understand the big picture of the salary cap, and keep their demands minimal in order to get/retain quality team mates. We can only hope we have a few of those types on this team, and that the salary cap goes up to its max potential limit.

This is gonna be another big factor, how much will they want to stay/stay together, and how well will GMBetaMale both convince them, to stay, take less and manage the cap accordingly?


Moreover, which ones are they most concerned about keeping and why?

[Maacoshark]

I say let Carslon go.  His cost is inflated by his stats made from his fourth forward position. Sure he had a decent playoff, but not worth 7mil.


Keeping Kempny, and going for DeHaan or Cole, or a higher value option.


This is gonna be a interesting test for the Caps front office:  do they start operating like Champions, or go back to just being OK with being a regular season team that has a chance in the playoffs

   Well he is going to get at least 7 mil and I bet we are the ones to give it to him.

[Maacoshark]

The only way keeping Carlson makes sense is if he stays paired up with Kepney, and he takes a minimal raise. That paring is the only reason Carlson had a better than average year.


We have absolutely no idea what these guys want for money, and except for DSP, none of them need more money. As long as they've been smart with it. Hockey seems to have smarter players in that regard than other sports as whole. Every now and then you get some guys that understand the big picture of the salary cap, and keep their demands minimal in order to get/retain quality team mates. We can only hope we have a few of those types on this team, and that the salary cap goes up to its max potential limit.

   Kempny got here late in the year. How does him playing with Carlson for a few regular season games make Carlson's strong season? That makes no sense.

[DC_1908]

   Well he is going to get at least 7 mil and I bet we are the ones to give it to him.

I’m afraid we will too.


Signing the most popular UFA fourth-forward to a big contract is par for the course for Dickless and BetaMale. 
[size=78%] [/size]

[Mickstix]

I think GMBM will make another loooooooooong term deal to keep Carlson.. And you know what? I don't give a shit! Who cares, we have a cup!!


I hope we don't have to go to arbitration with Wilson. Hopefully they're on the same page.. If they need cap room, I'd shop Burt.. That's like 3 mil off the books..

[Maacoshark]

I’m afraid we will too.


Signing the most popular UFA fourth-forward to a big contract is par for the course for Dickless and BetaMale. 

   I disagree with your assessment. An offensive dman isn't close to being a 4th forward. Most if those type of dmen probably wouldnt do well playing forward.

[DC_1908]

I think GMBM will make another loooooooooong term deal to keep Carlson.. And you know what? I don't give a shit! Who cares, we have a cup!!


I hope we don't have to go to arbitration with Wilson. Hopefully they're on the same page.. If they need cap room, I'd shop Burt.. That's like 3 mil off the books..

The Canes. Stars, Lightning. Flames. and Ducks have “a” Cup.   


Most of those teams ceased being contenders shortly after winning it. 

[KitFisto]

Seriously DC,  we just won the cup and you're still on the Beta male kick? I'm not being an asshole, but are you ever happy? Like it or not GMBM made the moves to alter and bolster what McPhee left behind and it resulted in a cup. As much as it pains you the man deserves some credit. McPhee, whom you seem to love, only wanted puck moving d-men. BM did his best to at least add one physical guy in Orpik because he was the best available at the time. He moved out guys who didn't show up in the playoffs for us like Brouwer and got Oshie who just performed very well in the cup run. Yes, he made mistakes too like Shattencrap, but he's TRYING and he succeeded.

What do you want man?

[DC_1908]

Seriously DC,  we just won the cup and you're still on the Beta male kick? I'm not being an asshole, but are you ever happy? Like it or not GMBM made the moves to alter and bolster what McPhee left behind and it resulted in a cup. As much as it pains you the man deserves some credit. McPhee, whom you seem to love, only wanted puck moving d-men. BM did his best to at least add one physical guy in Orpik because he was the best available at the time. He moved out guys who didn't show up in the playoffs for us like Brouwer and got Oshie who just performed very well in the cup run. Yes, he made mistakes too like Shattencrap, but he's TRYING and he succeeded.

What do you want man?

I want them to not continue operating under the same mindset of “score a lot and have a chance in the playoffs where anything can happen” that took ten years and a near act of god to result in a championship.


Nor do I want anyone to say “we did it, it’s the end of the road”


Everyone saw what worked in the playoffs, and what a seemingly 180 the mentality and mindset of the players and/orginization as whole made to do what worked.  There is enough data to harvest, clutavate, design, and develop a new system and culture based first and foremost winning in the playoffs.

And that being the only goal.

[KitFisto]

Well,  I don't disagree at all with your sentiment,  but I don't think anyone including those in the organization feel "we did it, end of the road". You make the point about them finally knowing what it takes so wouldn't it make sense to keep as much if that together as possible while also hoping GMBM ( who added the guys that helped make it happen ) would continue down that road?

[waynerivers]

Trotz-  think he'll definitely be back.  The Islanders are the only current opening and who wants to go there, no matter the salary?  I'm sure Trotz isn't hurting a bit and would probably take the home town discount to stay with this group and make another run.


Carlson-  very good offensively and improving but not great defensively.  I think we need the cap to be raised to keep him as there will be people coming out of the woodwork to put him on their PP.  If the current cap is retained, I doubt we keep Carlson.  Then, we either go shopping or put Orlov on the first team PP.


Wilson-  keeping him is a no brainer.  A deal will get done.


Kempny- would very much like to keep him.  He became a solid player down the stretch and throughout the playoffs.  Pretty good defensively and has some offensive skills as we saw.  Think once he settled in, he was one of our best d-men.  We should be able to keep him as I don't expect huge interest even with his postseason play.


Beagle- like to keep him.  Relentless hustle and a premier faceoff guy.  Don't think we'll have to overpay at 32 and doubt he wants to go anyway.


DSP- great playoffs but was it a one off?  Keep him if it makes sense money-wise only.

[DC_1908]

Well,  I don't disagree at all with your sentiment,  but I don't think anyone including those in the organization feel "we did it, end of the road". You make the point about them finally knowing what it takes so wouldn't it make sense to keep as much if that together as possible while also hoping GMBM ( who added the guys that helped make it happen ) would continue down that road?

Let me rephrase “End Of The Road”,  to “back to buisness as usuall”


The roster was not built to run the system they won the playoffs with. The fact they accepted and executed an opposite style. is a bit of an anomaly.  I am concerned that the front office will keep doing what they have been doing, only instead of banking on a chance, thinking they will just do the same 180 each playoff.


So, if they are committed to this style and culture, there are subtle tweaks that can and should be made be made.   IE, an Offensive Dman/4th Forward isn’t going to get the totals he would in an offense first skill-system, so 7+ doesn’t make a lot sense.    Particularly when that can be split between two players that will subtract from the stats but otherwise excel in this style.

This offseason will require the same 180 of the front office as the players did.  I’m not sure they will or can

[Mickstix]

The Canes. Stars, Lightning. Flames. and Ducks have “a” Cup.   


Most of those teams ceased being contenders shortly after winning it.

Oh, I definitely reserve the right to change my feelings!!  But at the moment, I don't even hate Ted Leonsis... 

[DC_1908]

Oh, I definitely reserve the right to change my feelings!!  But at the moment, I don't even hate Ted Leonsis... 

I bet that won’t last longer than November., maybe August