Nicky v Holts

[zerofox]

Holts is not the reason this team is losing right now, nor is he the reason everyone in front of him is playing like shit. But he is part of the reason this team is still in first place. Are you part of the lockerrroom staff? I ask because you seem to know more about what's going on than the rest of us. Like who's forcing the decision to play Holts over Samsonov. He is, and did earn the #1 spot. I see no reason to take that from him at this point. Especially when looking at how the rest of the team has played in the last 5 games. Maybe we should bench the team and tell Hershey to send everyone.

I'm not ready to upset the ship just yet. We know the flu is going through the lockerrroom right now, and it could be another week before everyone is back to normal. This team hasn't given their normal hard physical game in the last three, and the decision making in the ice has been atrocious. I know the flu effects me similarly, when I feel one coming on the motorcycle gets parked and the American Express stays in the safe. Usually for about a week. Multiply that by 30 people and it's going to take longer.

Personally, I don't see any $10M a year goalies in this league, and if the salary cap doesn't go up significantly in the next two years those contracts are going bite some teams in the ass. Worse than what the Caps are dealing with.

Our team is in first place IN SPITE of Holtby's struggles (although yes I agree he's not the only one to blame for any struggles we have as a team). We have one of the most high powered offenses in the league and our defense, despite how much we say it sucks, is actually pretty middle of the road. Hate to break it to you but .900 SV% and a GAA of 3.0 is not an elite goalie. Not worth $10 million a year. Not even worth $6-7 million a year. The problem is Holtby earned his #1 spot years ago, and now he's still considered the de facto #1. Sammy gets the back to back starts, otherwise if Holts has a bad game they put him in again instead of giving someone who has a higher probability of being a goalie of the future some more practice. I'm not saying Sammy IS the goalie of the future, but I'm saying Holtby is NOT. Unless he's willing to take south of $6 million. Otherwise I don't think he's worth it.

[4 Caps]

Another factor in whether we should sign Holtby is the expansion draft coming up in June of 21.  I am sure Holtby will want a no movement clause in any contract he signs so as to guarantee that the team will not expose him in the expansion draft.  I doubt whether the Caps would agree to such a clause because they would have to expose Samsonov and the Caps will not want to do that.  I therefore do not see the Caps re-signing Holtby. 

[BlackIce]

What Alta said.


It is impossible to judge the play of the team right now because of the health issues going through the clubhouse.  My wife has had what might be somewhat the same thing this past week, and she is sleeping more and doesn't have quite the pep she usually has.  Not having "quite the pep" can make all the difference in a sport like hockey where extreme effort is crucial to success.


In the Backstrom vs. Holtby discussion there is a broader, longer-term perspective that needs to come into play.  I've seen some commentary from within and outside the organization that this season might be the last one as a viable Cup contender for the current roster, because too much of the core is getting too far along in their careers to maintain the team's top-tier status.  It's hard for me to judge how valid this opinion is, especially since the team is at the top of the league -- at this point.  But the thinking seems to be that as the stars continue to age, if the team core is kept relatively stable it will slowly but steadily fall out of top-contender status, simply because father time is undefeated.  (Or it may happen that the team goes off a cliff relatively suddenly -- it's happened to a lot of aging sports teams over the years, and hockey is a rough sport that can cause players to cross performance "tipping points" suddenly.)


So the organization really is at a crossroads here.  The goalie situation is unique because of the rules for the upcoming expansion draft, which is going to dictate the moves for that position more than any other.  But we are now coming up to fish-or-cut-bait time with Backstrom and then Ovechkin.  The feeling is that they should remain Caps for the duration of their careers, but if the "conventional wisdom" plays out and the team morphs into a "pretty good, but not really a Cup contender" team, should we really sign those guys to multi-year contracts to be the foundation of a slow (or not-so-slow) fade?


Would it be better to sign neither Backstrom nor Holtby, maybe not sign Ovechkin (or maybe Ovie sees the writing on the wall when neither is signed, and decides on his own not to resign), take our lumps, get back in the lottery or even sink toward the bottom of the league, and reset the team in a fundamental way?  The Caps have made a heroic ongoing attempt to field a top-flight team without really high draft choices for the past decade, and have drafted very well in the latter stages of the first round, especially.  But time may be running out.  The future team trajectory is fundamentally different if the Caps sign Backstrom and Ovie for some more years at, say, $18 million annually between them, or if they don't.

[4 Caps]

BlackIce you make a good point about the aging of the team but I will be totally shocked if the Caps don’t re-sign Backstrom and Ovie.  I really think the feeling of management and ownership is that Backstrom and Ovie will retire as Capitals after having played their entire career as Capitals. 

[RavenCp]

It’s not as so much as Holts vs Sammy. . . It’s a matter of GMBetaMale using EA Sports to do the salary cap.


The “optimists” are thinking Sammy is the next “hot rookie/young superstar goalie” like The Hens and Blues had. Which is not only a major risk after he’s made a starter, but the risk is the following years.
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I don't have much on this subject, just except keep using more Samsonov, because he'll probably will stay longer with Caps and people move their asses when feel competition, and it works for Holtby as well. Besides it can help in bargaining. 

[richkrt99]

I think Holtby is toast for the two basic reasons of expansion draft and salary Cap.
IF you resign Holtby - you are possibly losing Sammy.  If Sammy were not showing so much promise and maturity then maybe no big deal, but he IS showing promise so the Caps are not going to want to risk losing him.
If you resign Backy, you CAN'T afford Holtby.  Period.  Even if both were to take hometown friendly deals (which I can see Backy doing, but not so much Holtby - Holtby is due 10mil....he will get it somewhere)
Unless you trade Kuzy, and spend that money on backy/Holby/Ovi the next few years, but then you have nothing to acquire a 2C which this team would desperately need.  Does everyone recall what struggles this team had for YEARS trying to get a decent 2C.  Kuzy's antics over the last couple seasons have put him in poor favor with alot of folks (me), but he is a GREAT hockey player when he wants to be, and he helps DRIVE the success of this team.  Same goes for Backy.  We lose either of our top two centers and this is a dramatically different team.  I realize Backy is/will be in declining years, but think he can maintain a high level of play.  Like DC said...he fills SO MANY roles.


I personally feel Backy means more to this team than Holtby (alot of reasons like DC mentioned)


I am in no way blaming Holtby for recent level of play.  I think he is a gonner because we just can't afford him.




Also, I think ownership really wants to keep Ovi and Backy.  I agree with that.  May not make the most financial sense, but these two guys have made this franchise what it is; THE most winning team in the last decade.  Should have had some better playoff success, but you just never know about the playoffs. 


There's always some chance BMAC will make some big deal to shave salary, but that would have to be one of the guys the team is staked on and I really don't see that happening.


GO CAPS

[BlackIce]

BlackIce you make a good point about the aging of the team but I will be totally shocked if the Caps don’t re-sign Backstrom and Ovie.  I really think the feeling of management and ownership is that Backstrom and Ovie will retire as Capitals after having played their entire career as Capitals.

I agree with you, 4C, all indications are that the Caps want to keep Backstrom and Ovechkin as career Capitals.  But honestly, what calibre of team are the Caps going to field in, say 2022/2023 with a 35-year-old Backstrom and a 37-year-old Ovechkin?  If the team has sufficient quality that they can play as 3rd line players at that point, yeah maybe things will be OK.  But is that really going to happen?  If they and Oshie are still around and being heavily counted on then (there's already talk of Oshie being a 3rd line player), they would most likely be the core of a limited-upside team.  In other words, the organization in taking such an approach would very likely be consigning the team's status at that point as an at-best-decent team supporting a goodwill tour of icons approaching the ends of their careers. 


Now an argument could be made that due to their contributions to the franchise, the two deserve such treatment.  But the franchise would then have to be realistic about the near-to-mid-term organizational future that they were committing to.

[4 Caps]

I agree with you, 4C, all indications are that the Caps want to keep Backstrom and Ovechkin as career Capitals.  But honestly, what calibre of team are the Caps going to field in, say 2022/2023 with a 35-year-old Backstrom and a 37-year-old Ovechkin?  If the team has sufficient quality that they can play as 3rd line players at that point, yeah maybe things will be OK.  But is that really going to happen?  If they and Oshie are still around and being heavily counted on then (there's already talk of Oshie being a 3rd line player), they would most likely be the core of a limited-upside team.  In other words, the organization in taking such an approach would very likely be consigning the team's status at that point as an at-best-decent team supporting a goodwill tour of icons approaching the ends of their careers. 

Now an argument could be made that due to their contributions to the franchise, the two deserve such treatment.  But the franchise would then have to be realistic about the near-to-mid-term organizational future that they were committing to.

They will definitely need to draft some young forwards who will hopefully develop.  Vrana, Kuzy, Wilson should make a good top line.  I am hoping by 2022-23, McMichael will develop into a good two way center who will replace Backstrom as the 2nd line center and Backstrom will be the 3rd line center.  By then I still see Ovie being a top 6 forward but we will need another top 6 forward.  Oshie if he is still with the team could be on the 3rd line with Backstrom.  Our blue line should be fairly solid as we have a lot of good young defenseman in the system.  In goal, hopefully, Samsonov will develop into a solid number 1 goalie which I think he will.  In short, if in the next couple of drafts we can draft a top six wing I think we could still be a contender for the Cup. 

[DC_1908]

They will definitely need to draft some young forwards who will hopefully develop.  Vrana, Kuzy, Wilson should make a good top line.  I am hoping by 2022-23, McMichael will develop into a good two way center who will replace Backstrom as the 2nd line center and Backstrom will be the 3rd line center.  By then I still see Ovie being a top 6 forward but we will need another top 6 forward.  Oshie if he is still with the team could be on the 3rd line with Backstrom.  Our blue line should be fairly solid as we have a lot of good young defenseman in the system.  In goal, hopefully, Samsonov will develop into a solid number 1 goalie which I think he will.  In short, if in the next couple of drafts we can draft a top six wing I think we could still be a contender for the Cup.

To do this, given the cap situation, we’d need a near fire sale/full rebuild.  While the best case wold be trading/ letting high salary UFAs go, this time I agree with Caps to keep Ovie & Nick as career Caps.


Letting a player that could enter the top 5 or higher in all time goals would not only be an blight on the organization, but most of the fanbase would see it as insult, and it would be difficult to retrain them during the rebuild process.


That being said, when Ovie hangs em up Nick is likely to do the same.  If not, that’s one of the best to serve as mentor, as well as he’s likely to be productive into his 40s.


As much as it pains me to say it, we could be better off keeping Kuzy and Carlson until Ovie retirees as this will help him reach that point, and keep there value up.  After that, take their list of teams and load up on prospects and picks.


In the meantime, anyone else, not named Tom Wilson, should be up for trades to get prospects and picks at each deadline, (after this year), to start the rebuild, and focus should be both total cap reduction/management and/or organizational depth. Must of all, no long term high dollar extensions or UFAs regardless of their names or stats.


Moving the likes of Eller, Oshie, Orlov, Siggy even Vrana will more than likely drop us from Cup favorites to perha all but playoff hopefuls, but will also give what prospects we have NHL expierance/extended tryouts, but clear space in Hershey for picks prospects to take their proverbial lumps in Hershey and  provide them a ‘fast-track’ to the NHL.


This very much what Boston did.  The only “bad” signing recently being Backes.  Also in a few years, we shouldn’t be surprised to see anyone not named Bergeron on the trade block.

[richkrt99]

So despite what my recent posts (including this one) may appear....I am NOT really down on Holtz or a Holtby hater, but....


Why the heck is Holtby an all-star this year? 


I assume because he is popular and that he has a lot of wins, but otherwise, his numbers are pretty poor.


So I looked it up (ahem....boredom thread calling)


Actually his wins (17) only puts him in the top 8, and this is by far his best goalie stat this year.
His GAA (2.99) ranks him at 41 (out of 78)
His save % (.902) puts him at 48
He has 14 Quality Starts which puts him in the top 17 (but 14QS in 29 games is less than half....meaning half the games he started were NOT quality starts


In fact nearly all his stats (including some other goalie stats) are below average.  Now you can argue...Oh he's on a team with poor D and has to work harder for it....but one could also argue that he is on the best team in the league, so his numbers should be better.


Anyway, not picking on him, but He aint no All-Star this so far this season.  Maybe he will run into Mitch Korn at the circus and pick up some pointers to carry him through the rest of the season.


and one more time....


THE THREAD MAN!

[DC_1908]

So despite what my recent posts (including this one) may appear....I am NOT really down on Holtz or a Holtby hater, but....


Why the heck is Holtby an all-star this year? 


I assume because he is popular and that he has a lot of wins, but otherwise, his numbers are pretty poor.


So I looked it up (ahem....boredom thread calling)


Actually his wins (17) only puts him in the top 8, and this is by far his best goalie stat this year.
His GAA (2.99) ranks him at 41 (out of 78)
His save % (.902) puts him at 48
He has 14 Quality Starts which puts him in the top 17 (but 14QS in 29 games is less than half....meaning half the games he started were NOT quality starts


In fact nearly all his stats (including some other goalie stats) are below average.  Now you can argue...Oh he's on a team with poor D and has to work harder for it....but one could also argue that he is on the best team in the league, so his numbers should be better.


Anyway, not picking on him, but He aint no All-Star this so far this season.  Maybe he will run into Mitch Korn at the circus and pick up some pointers to carry him through the rest of the season.


and one more time....


THE THREAD MAN!

Well we all know the All Star selection sucks. Hell anyone voting objectivity would vote for Wilson, but the other teams fans hate him (which is awesome btw)


Still, Holtby makes saves 98% of goalies wouldn’t.  But I do think he’s pisses off at The Caps for the other contracts they signed and how they’ve counted on him carrying this team on shoulders.  If Varly or Nuvy, or damn near ANY other goalle played for us, it’s hard to think we’d of won a Cup.


I bet he and his agent have been saying on a team defensive based team, hed have far more success so he WANTS the free agent market.


I wouldn’t be surprised to see him for the Isles or even Wings next year