A lot talk recently about Ovi's chances of catching Gretzky's record, and a lot of debate around who the best goal scorer of all time is. Frequently the answer is Gretzky, and supporters of that answer point to his 894 goals. To which others will say "yeah but era." To be honest though, I don't think any of that really matters. I think if Ovi wins his 8th Rocket, that will pretty firmly make him the best goal scorer ever without debate.
Here's some metrics people might use to determine the best goal scorer ever, and why I think they work or don't work:
Total Career Goals - This metric points us to Gretzky as the best, but it doesn't adjust for era or longevity of career. Gretzky played in an era where goalies had the bodies of malnourished vegans and goals were a dime a dozen. Of course he's going to score plenty. Plus he played 20 seasons (nearly 1500 games). 894 goals is very impressive in a vacuum, but 894 goals over the course of 20 seasons largely in a high scoring era? A little less impressive.
Career Goals per Game - This metric would point us towards Mike Bossy being the best, but it also doesn't take into consideration the era. Play in a high scoring era and you'll have a high goals per game average. You also could keep a relatively short career and maintain a high G/GP average. Bossy had a record .762 G/GP, but also kept a relatively short 10-year career, which basically covers his prime years.
Era Adjusted Total Career Goals - This metric is most frequently used by the pro-Ovechkin crowd, because he's already 6th in era adjusted goals with 737, and would surpass Gretzky's 758 next season and end up 3rd all time. However, looking at this metric right now would say Gorgie Howe is the best. Yes this takes into account the era, but still doesn't take into account longevity of career. Gordie Howe's 925 era adjusted goals were done over 26 years (almost 1800 games). Of course you could argue that once Ovechkin's career is over, he could very well end up with over 925 era adjusted goals. But I think there would always be some doubt around the validity/accuracy of the formulas used to adjust for era. In other words, questions like "does the formula make the right assumptions" and "can you know for certain that Ovechkin would score X% more in Y era" would pop up. There will always be a group of people who have to "see it to believe it" and have no interest in speculating how many goals Ovi would score if he played in the 80s.
Goal Scoring Leads (Rocket Richards) - I think this measure is good enough to determine who's the best goal scorer of all time. It adjusts for era, because it doesn't matter if you played in a high scoring era or a low scoring era. You can win just as many Rockets scoring 30 goals a year in a hypothetically low scoring league as you could scoring 80 goals a year in a high scoring league. It also somewhat adjusts for longevity of career, because you could win 10 Rockets in 10 years, or win 10 Rockets in 20 years (with the last 10 years likely being your "down years" where you have a harder time winning more Rockets). But at the same time it still attributes some value to having a long, healthy, consistent career (you need to play enough seasons at a high level to win a lot of Rockets). To win a single Rocket is to say you were the best goal scorer among your peers, regardless of era. To win a lot of Rockets is to say you had a consistently strong career, without giving you too much benefit for playing until you're a pensioner. If Ovi wins his 8th, I think it's a very easy argument to make.
I think the only real counterargument you could make to using Rocket Richards as a metric for best goal scorer is the fact that Gretzky only won it 5 times, Howe only won it 5 times, and Bossy 2 times. You would also then argue that Lemieux and Brett Hull both only won 3 times. And all those guys are great goal scorers so what gives? But then I would probably say that if they didn't win the Rocket more, they either weren't consistently good enough as goal scorers relative to their peers, or just weren't all that special if they were getting beaten left and right by other players.
