GDT#62 Capitals @ Sabers 1:00pm Sat Feb 23, 2019 NBCSWA, NHLN, SN, MSG-B

[BlackIce]

Hey Black, I do agree with your general sentiment, about the getaway day at the end of a road trip. It truly is something that ALL teams experience! Double agree on your trade deadline point! LOL 😂


For the good ones, that recover, and string several wins together, afterward, this road trip issue is correctly put in the category of a “hiccup”, or other like descriptions.
However, I believe that for the Caps, this description fits just a bit too comfortably, when tied into their whole picture of how and why their wins and losses occur.


Their sluggish first period, could be fit, for sure, into the end of road trip scenario, and probably did have that effect.  Their 2nd P performance was definitely more spirited and energetic, at least until Buffalos’ PP goal near the end of the period!


My bigger concern, (other than Ovi’s goal numbers), is the lack of any truly consistent attribute, that we can generally, and regularly, count on!! Especially at this crucial time of the season, when teams basic identities are beginning to be forged, in advance of the playoffs!!


What and where the hell is our identity??? (other than consistently INCONSISTENT)!
Your thoughts?


Rush

I think our team identity is the same as it has been for the past dozen years.  There is ONE statistic in which the Caps have been consistently at or near the top of the league over that time, and it is a statistic that, for a lot of teams, varies quite a bit from year to year.  It is a statistic that GENERALLY seems to have quite a bit of natural variation, and most teams will have up and down years, it seems almost randomly.


That statistic is shooting percentage.  It seems to me that the Caps' identity has always been that they have more dangerous shooters from all over the ice than most anyone else.  That isn't true this year, because of the fabulous year that Tampa is having, and the set of skill players they have accumulated.  But the Caps are still near the top.  Now non-analytic fans would say "sure their shooting percentage looks good, because of Ovechkin."  But Ovie hasn't generally driven shooting percentage for the team all THAT much.  He is the world's best goal scorer because he has been able to generate shots, as much as or more than by being a consistently dangerous shooter.  But the Caps have ALWAYS had several supporting players who have had high shooting percentages.  Heck, even this year the much-maligned Burakovsky has a very decent shooting percentage.  His problem isn't that he can't shoot the puck well.  His problem is that he can't generate shots for himself or put himself in position where others can get him the puck in position to shoot.  The previous volcano candidate, MJ, always had a high shooting percentage relative to the league when he was with the Caps.  Backstrom has consistently had a relatively high shooting percentage.  And down the line one can go.  Even Wilson, in his coming-out year, has been a VERY dangerous shooter.  You'd think of him as a guy who would get his goals by crashing the net and jamming pucks in from in close, and he does do that.  But he has also had a good number of snipes this year.


Now, DC would probably say that shooting percentage is one of the most worthless stats to be good at, and he might be able to make a defensible case for that.  But the fact remains that, as much as anything, "a team of snipers" is probably as close to the Caps team identity as anything.

[PUCKNRUSH]

My big concern is that last year we had a perfect storm of things going right for us.


1) Goaltending - Holtby went back to God mode after a pretty horrible season. His GAA and SV% stats this year are pretty similar to last year's mess, but who's to say he can turn it up again when it counts? Last year he had Grubauer carry the load for a while so he could be well rested, and perhaps that was a benefit to him during the postseason. Plus it was probably not fun watching Grubauer grab all the glory, so I'm sure Holtby had a little fire under his ass to do well when given the chance. This year, while Copley is a solid backup, he's not quite as strong as Grubauer.


2) Defense - After giving up 2.9 goals per game in the season (solidly middle of the pack), our team started to play stronger defense, letting in about 2.5 goals per game in the playoffs (among the best in the playoffs). The Kempny trade, the switch to playing more of a trap and overall commitment to team defense, and better goaltending from Holtby all contributed. This year, our team GAA is even worse, at about 3.2 goals per game. Our defense is struggling mightily, with key guys having bad years. I haven't seen much in terms of "team defense" either. While I'm sure they could switch strategies in the playoffs, I worry about us not gelling enough and worry about rookie TR just being outcoached in every way.


3) Top 6 - Last postseason, Ovechkin was typical Ovechkin. He was a man on a mission. However, he was supported heavily by the strong play of Kuznetsov, Backstrom, and Oshie. Those guys put up serious points during the playoffs, and helped lead us to 3.6 goals per game in the playoffs versus 3.1 goals per game in the regular season. This year, all three of those guys seem to be having off years, despite putting up decent points. Getting them all to turn it back on at the right time will take some luck.


4) Bottom 6 - Another HUGE factor that led to our Cup win, was the heroics of some bottom 6 players, such as Eller, Connolly, and DSP. They all either chipped in with very timely goals, or scored at rates well above what you would normally except from them. Right now, I'm not sure who in our Bottom 6 could step up, but the guys who stepped up last year also seem to be performing poorly this year (aside from Connolly, who's having a pretty good year stats wise).


5) Adversity and Low Expectations - This is the only constant between last year and this year. Both years we've gone through injuries and shitty play, with no one really expecting much out of us.


I'm just not sure that "perfect storm" will work in our favor this year.

Wow Zero! Kudos!
Pretty impressive summation, overall!
A lot to take in, but found myself in agreement with the majority of the post!
The lesser contributions from Kuzy, Oshie, and Backy this year, when considered IN TOTAL, do help make the case for why there is a big hole in O production. Ovi can’t shoulder the whole thing, nor should that be expected!


I wanted to address one of your earlier posts in this GDT, but I have to find it!
I’ll quote it in a few!


Rush

[PUCKNRUSH]

Maybe when we lose to worse teams it is because we just suck, not because we didn't give effort. Maybe when we beat the good teams, it's just because they "played down to our level" and not necessarily because we are good.

I have to respectfully disagree, Zero. Here’s why.


First - Too much evidence throughout this season, where we’ve played “all in”, and beat current playoff contender teams, who tried to have a good game, but we basically shut them down, and they never even had the opportunity, or choice, to “play down to our level”!
In other words, all the good teams we’ve defeated, didn’t ALL have a bad game, or play less! On the contrary, most teams, every year, try to bring their A game, when facing the reigning Stanley Cup champs. No different for us either.


Second - Bottom feeder teams “SUCK”! They suck because, over the long season schedule, they generally don’t possess the collective talent, to even have the option to “bring it”, “go all in”, or whatever phrase you want to use!
THEY are the ones, who basically get their victories, only when the other, better, team has an off night. They are also the teams that rank in the bottom 3 or 4, in each conference. The grueling schedule just sorts this stuff out, naturally!


Do you think the average fan, for say the Kings, or the Senators, is legitimately expecting to win most nights, but then reasons to themselves, that their team loses, mainly due to their “lack of effort”! NO WAY! Their fans KNOW their team SUCKS, where wins are RARE, and not to be expected!


The reason, IMHO, that we Caps fans get so frustrated, is because the players have DEMONSTRATED, that they CAN play, high quality hockey, on a level WE understand! WHEN THEY DONT, we actually and sincerely ask, “what the hell is wrong with this team, tonight”.  Because we have a legitimate EXPECTATION, from what we’ve seen,  WHEN THEY DO BRING IT!!  I doubt LA and Ottawa fans have this roller coaster type of frustration!!  They’ve, more likely, thrown the towel in, because their teams truly SUCK!


Now if you want to say that the Caps, SUCK, when playing with a “lack of effort”, then I’m totally in your corner!  The players on our team, that choose to slack off......THAT SUCKS ASS!! I don’t know if this is an issue Rierden can solve, although Trotz was able to sometimes do better with it!

Check Rierdens post game tonite. He said the problem was guys not “giving their all”! Another euphemism for not giving a good effort!
We’re starting to hear this language, out of our coaches, and players mouths, way too often, without much correction! 


With respect, Zero


Rush

[DC_1908]

I have to respectfully disagree, Zero. Here’s why.


First - Too much evidence throughout this season, where we’ve played “all in”, and beat current playoff contender teams, who tried to have a good game, but we basically shut them down, and they never even had the opportunity, or choice, to “play down to our level”!
In other words, all the good teams we’ve defeated, didn’t ALL have a bad game, or play less! On the contrary, most teams, every year, try to bring their A game, when facing the reigning Stanley Cup champs. No different for us either.


Second - Bottom feeder teams “SUCK”! They suck because, over the long season schedule, they generally don’t possess the collective talent, to even have the option to “bring it”, “go all in”, or whatever phrase you want to use!
THEY are the ones, who basically get their victories, only when the other, better, team has an off night. They are also the teams that rank in the bottom 3 or 4, in each conference. The grueling schedule just sorts this stuff out, naturally!


Do you think the average fan, for say the Kings, or the Senators, is legitimately expecting to win most nights, but then reasons to themselves, that their team loses, mainly due to their “lack of effort”! NO WAY! Their fans KNOW their team SUCKS, where wins are RARE, and not to be expected!


The reason, IMHO, that we Caps fans get so frustrated, is because the players have DEMONSTRATED, that they CAN play, high quality hockey, on a level WE understand! WHEN THEY DONT, we actually and sincerely ask, “what the hell is wrong with this team, tonight”.  Because we have a legitimate EXPECTATION, from what we’ve seen,  WHEN THEY DO BRING IT!!  I doubt LA and Ottawa fans have this roller coaster type of frustration!!  They’ve, more likely, thrown the towel in, because their teams truly SUCK!


Now if you want to say that the Caps, SUCK, when playing with a “lack of effort”, then I’m totally in your corner!  The players on our team, that choose to slack off......THAT SUCKS ASS!! I don’t know if this is an issue Rierden can solve, although Trotz was able to sometimes do better with it!

Check Rierdens post game tonite. He said the problem was guys not “giving their all”! Another euphemism for not giving a good effort!
We’re starting to hear this language, out of our coaches, and players mouths, way too often, without much correction! 


With respect, Zero


Rush

Damn right Rush!!!


I think it could also be said that, while not always, the poison pill for this team is a combination of down by a two and the other teams goalie being hot. 


That seems to cause the frustration and putting them on the full offensive at any point in the game to get those two back, this combination results in an ordinate amount of opportunities for the other team (as we saw yesterday).


I once heard that in a similar situation a few years back,  Fedorov told Semin to just “calm, down and play some defense”,   Being as Feds said this, he was assuredly meaning to not only not allow the other team to extend the lead, but wait for them to make the mistakes.

[zerofox]

I have to respectfully disagree, Zero. Here’s why.


First - Too much evidence throughout this season, where we’ve played “all in”, and beat current playoff contender teams, who tried to have a good game, but we basically shut them down, and they never even had the opportunity, or choice, to “play down to our level”!
In other words, all the good teams we’ve defeated, didn’t ALL have a bad game, or play less! On the contrary, most teams, every year, try to bring their A game, when facing the reigning Stanley Cup champs. No different for us either.


Second - Bottom feeder teams “SUCK”! They suck because, over the long season schedule, they generally don’t possess the collective talent, to even have the option to “bring it”, “go all in”, or whatever phrase you want to use!
THEY are the ones, who basically get their victories, only when the other, better, team has an off night. They are also the teams that rank in the bottom 3 or 4, in each conference. The grueling schedule just sorts this stuff out, naturally!


Do you think the average fan, for say the Kings, or the Senators, is legitimately expecting to win most nights, but then reasons to themselves, that their team loses, mainly due to their “lack of effort”! NO WAY! Their fans KNOW their team SUCKS, where wins are RARE, and not to be expected!


The reason, IMHO, that we Caps fans get so frustrated, is because the players have DEMONSTRATED, that they CAN play, high quality hockey, on a level WE understand! WHEN THEY DONT, we actually and sincerely ask, “what the hell is wrong with this team, tonight”.  Because we have a legitimate EXPECTATION, from what we’ve seen,  WHEN THEY DO BRING IT!!  I doubt LA and Ottawa fans have this roller coaster type of frustration!!  They’ve, more likely, thrown the towel in, because their teams truly SUCK!


Now if you want to say that the Caps, SUCK, when playing with a “lack of effort”, then I’m totally in your corner!  The players on our team, that choose to slack off......THAT SUCKS ASS!! I don’t know if this is an issue Rierden can solve, although Trotz was able to sometimes do better with it!

Check Rierdens post game tonite. He said the problem was guys not “giving their all”! Another euphemism for not giving a good effort!
We’re starting to hear this language, out of our coaches, and players mouths, way too often, without much correction! 


With respect, Zero


Rush

   You know I was kidding with my statement right? Lol. I was just being an angry Caps fan.


I feel like on paper we have the talent to be near the top of the pack. Game in and game out if we're doing poorly I call this team a steaming pile of garbage. I really mean to target that at the overall play, effort, and coaching. NOT the roster we have.


Truthfully, I think a lot of teams would look at our roster and be jealous. We have two lines that could both easily be a 1st line on another team. Our defensive lineup is actually pretty deep IMO. I think there are a lot of teams who would envy our top 4. Our bottom pairing might not be excellent, but I've seen other teams have to deal with much worse. And to top it all off, we have a Vezina caliber goalie. How many other teams can claim all of those things? Quite honestly, I think Tampa Bay is the only ROSTER where I'm legitimately blown away by them, as they have tons of talent across all 3 areas of the ice. I said somewhere else either in this thread or another thread - I think we could be a 2nd place team in the league based on talent alone. Effort, coaching, players having off years, roster getting up there in age, etc, are all kinda handicapping what our roster should be able to accomplish. And quite frankly, I don't feel like our roster is much worse than the rosters we had a couple years ago that won the back to back Presidents' Trophies. Seriously I think we're pretty similar, even better in certain areas. I definitely don't think our roster is so much worse that it would explain a 20-point drop in performance.


And that's why I mostly complain about TR or certain players being idiots. You haven't seen me complain much about GMBM. If anything I think he's done a solid job of putting together the roster we have.

[PUCKNRUSH]

   You know I was kidding with my statement right? Lol. I was just being an angry Caps fan.


I feel like on paper we have the talent to be near the top of the pack. Game in and game out if we're doing poorly I call this team a steaming pile of garbage. I really mean to target that at the overall play, effort, and coaching. NOT the roster we have.


Truthfully, I think a lot of teams would look at our roster and be jealous. We have two lines that could both easily be a 1st line on another team. Our defensive lineup is actually pretty deep IMO. I think there are a lot of teams who would envy our top 4. Our bottom pairing might not be excellent, but I've seen other teams have to deal with much worse. And to top it all off, we have a Vezina caliber goalie. How many other teams can claim all of those things? Quite honestly, I think Tampa Bay is the only ROSTER where I'm legitimately blown away by them, as they have tons of talent across all 3 areas of the ice. I said somewhere else either in this thread or another thread - I think we could be a 2nd place team in the league based on talent alone. Effort, coaching, players having off years, roster getting up there in age, etc, are all kinda handicapping what our roster should be able to accomplish. And quite frankly, I don't feel like our roster is much worse than the rosters we had a couple years ago that won the back to back Presidents' Trophies. Seriously I think we're pretty similar, even better in certain areas. I definitely don't think our roster is so much worse that it would explain a 20-point drop in performance.


And that's why I mostly complain about TR or certain players being idiots. You haven't seen me complain much about GMBM. If anything I think he's done a solid job of putting together the roster we have.

LMAO, Zero!
Leave it to my old-fart ass to respond literally to a light-hearted post!
Went back and read some of the posts prior to yours, (including one of mine, duh), and easily see it now!  Sorry for the rant, buddy!😁


Reading some of your posts, actually helps vent some of my frustration, when the team starts playing in suck mode!!


I too am ok with GMBM, and like you, Rierden comes off way too soft, for my liking. Especially when you see little, if any, correction, in areas that we’ve had issues, all season long!!


Rush