My bigger concern, (other than Ovi’s goal numbers), is the lack of any truly consistent attribute, that we can generally, and regularly, count on!! Especially at this crucial time of the season, when teams basic identities are beginning to be forged, in advance of the playoffs!!
My big concern is that last year we had a perfect storm of things going right for us.
1) Goaltending - Holtby went back to God mode after a pretty horrible season. His GAA and SV% stats this year are pretty similar to last year's mess, but who's to say he can turn it up again when it counts? Last year he had Grubauer carry the load for a while so he could be well rested, and perhaps that was a benefit to him during the postseason. Plus it was probably not fun watching Grubauer grab all the glory, so I'm sure Holtby had a little fire under his ass to do well when given the chance. This year, while Copley is a solid backup, he's not quite as strong as Grubauer.
2) Defense - After giving up 2.9 goals per game in the season (solidly middle of the pack), our team started to play stronger defense, letting in about 2.5 goals per game in the playoffs (among the best in the playoffs). The Kempny trade, the switch to playing more of a trap and overall commitment to team defense, and better goaltending from Holtby all contributed. This year, our team GAA is even worse, at about 3.2 goals per game. Our defense is struggling mightily, with key guys having bad years. I haven't seen much in terms of "team defense" either. While I'm sure they could switch strategies in the playoffs, I worry about us not gelling enough and worry about rookie TR just being outcoached in every way.
3) Top 6 - Last postseason, Ovechkin was typical Ovechkin. He was a man on a mission. However, he was supported heavily by the strong play of Kuznetsov, Backstrom, and Oshie. Those guys put up serious points during the playoffs, and helped lead us to 3.6 goals per game in the playoffs versus 3.1 goals per game in the regular season. This year, all three of those guys seem to be having off years, despite putting up decent points. Getting them all to turn it back on at the right time will take some luck.
4) Bottom 6 - Another HUGE factor that led to our Cup win, was the heroics of some bottom 6 players, such as Eller, Connolly, and DSP. They all either chipped in with very timely goals, or scored at rates well above what you would normally except from them. Right now, I'm not sure who in our Bottom 6 could step up, but the guys who stepped up last year also seem to be performing poorly this year (aside from Connolly, who's having a pretty good year stats wise).
5) Adversity and Low Expectations - This is the only constant between last year and this year. Both years we've gone through injuries and shitty play, with no one really expecting much out of us.
I'm just not sure that "perfect storm" will work in our favor this year.
