GDT#32 Sabres @ Capitals 7:00p.m. Sat Dec 15, 2018 NBCSWA, MSG-B

[Pavel095]

even more impressive for OV tonight was the SO goal, he's a little under %30 career in the SO

I think right now he shows one of the best hockey in his nhl career because of his beautiful family which hugely supports  him,therefore as I said initially this season he gonna score even more goals compare to last seasons 

[Maacoshark]

I mostly agree Black.
I think Bura may just experience the longest reset of his career here, this time, barring injury to another starting forward.
I think, at least as it stands right now, Bura will be prioritized BELOW a potential revolving rotation between Jaskin, and Stephenson (and maybe even DSP), for who to scratch occasionally. As of now, I think Boyd’s job is safe currently speaking! Same for Dowd, although he’s a center.  I think you’ll see some experimentation with Barber also. Of course, no one can be sure of Rierdens thoughts, as you said, this is just attempting to discuss some possible angles.👍


Like Alta mentioned, 3 scratches in a row, certainly has a “message quality”, to it, and unfortunately for Bura, he doesn’t have a lot of convincing evidence that these “resets”, result in a positive effect, for him!


I get the sense that Bura’s scratches have a more punitive thread in them. By comparison, Jaskin and Stephensons scratches are due to having to make choices from a more positive backdrop!


I’m sure the league knows what we know on Bura. Can’t remember who posted about an LA Kings trade or something.  That sounded as good as anything else.  Unless Bura really capitalizes on the next chances he’s given, before the trade deadline, management may know there’s not much value there already.


Rush

     I have heard that the Vancouver Canucks have inquired about him. The guy that makes sense from the Canucks is Edler because of injuries to the dcore. Not sure if we could fit him.

[BlackIce]

I think right now he shows one of the best hockey in his nhl career because of his beautiful family which hugely supports  him,therefore as I said initially this season he gonna score even more goals compare to last seasons 

One might wonder also if Ovie is playing so well because of winning the Cup last year.  As team captain and the unquestioned straw that stirs this organization's drink, winning the Cup last year may have taken a huge accumulating weight off his shoulders, so during the regular season he doesn't have to have the issue of playoff disappointments constantly on the edge of his radar.  He can just go out and play, and the playoffs will take care of itself when they arrive.

[DC_1908]

One might wonder also if Ovie is playing so well because of winning the Cup last year.  As team captain and the unquestioned straw that stirs this organization's drink, winning the Cup last year may have taken a huge accumulating weight off his shoulders, so during the regular season he doesn't have to have the issue of playoff disappointments constantly on the edge of his radar.  He can just go out and play, and the playoffs will take care of itself when they arrive.

PRAISE JESUS!!!


Come on man, you’re a statistician,  Are you trying to sell us the idea that Ovies “feelings”, will be enough for the playoffs  to “take care of itself when (or if) they arrive”? 
 
Do the results changing on the same pattern on the 10th time, invalidate all preceding data and give a high probably of continuing going forward when the chief contributing factor is “feelings”? 

[BlackIce]

PRAISE JESUS!!!


Come on man, you’re a statistician,  Are you trying to sell us the idea that Ovies “feelings”, will be enough for the playoffs  to “take care of itself when (or if) they arrive”? 
 
Do the results changing on the same pattern on the 10th time, invalidate all preceding data and give a high probably of continuing going forward when the chief contributing factor is “feelings”?

DC, my statement had nothing to do with what I perceive the Capitals' chances for success in the playoffs would be.  I said that I suspected the reason Ovie might be doing well IN THE REGULAR SEASON is that he has the Stanley Cup monkey off his back.  So he doesn't have the "but the playoffs" bugaboo nagging at him, either in a personal psychological way or through the media.  All the last statement about "the playoffs will take care of themselves" represented was the opinion that he doesn't really have to worry about them anymore until they arrive, IF they arrive.  It was NOT a prediction that the playoffs will go well for the team.  And anyway, even if the team has struggled in the playoffs over the years, Ovie has actually played quite well in them.  All he can do is control his own performance -- he can't control everyone else's.  So drawing a conclusion from my last statement that because some pressure is off Ovie means the TEAM will do well in the playoffs is bad logic.


The Metro standings are very tight so far this season, and it is not at all certain that the Caps will even be in them.  Their recent hot streak has given them a little cushion, and they've weathered their injury/suspension issues well so far, but we are just now getting into the meat of the season.

[Mickstix]

Confidence was what they lacked in years past.. Not like they made it to the playoffs and then got blown out or something. They usually just choked. And it was usually the offense/depth.. Whether it was the D and or Holtby, they didn't lose because of some loose style game they were playing or because their defenders were too small.. They just couldn't get over the mental hurdle and score goals when it was most needed.. So now they won a cup and the confidence is/will be there.. Do the statistics say they'll not repeat? Sure.. So what? 

[alta]

Confidence was what they lacked in years past.. Not like they made it to the playoffs and then got blown out or something. They usually just choked. And it was usually the offense/depth.. Whether it was the D and or Holtby, they didn't lose because of some loose style game they were playing or because their defenders were too small.. They just couldn't get over the mental hurdle and score goals when it was most needed.. So now they won a cup and the confidence is/will be there.. Do the statistics say they'll not repeat? Sure.. So what? 

the only reason statistics are kept is for the bookies in Vegas 

[DC_1908]

DC, my statement had nothing to do with what I perceive the Capitals' chances for success in the playoffs would be.  I said that I suspected the reason Ovie might be doing well IN THE REGULAR SEASON is that he has the Stanley Cup monkey off his back.  So he doesn't have the "but the playoffs" bugaboo nagging at him, either in a personal psychological way or through the media.  All the last statement about "the playoffs will take care of themselves" represented was the opinion that he doesn't really have to worry about them anymore until they arrive, IF they arrive.  It was NOT a prediction that the playoffs will go well for the team.  And anyway, even if the team has struggled in the playoffs over the years, Ovie has actually played quite well in them.  All he can do is control his own performance -- he can't control everyone else's.  So drawing a conclusion from my last statement that because some pressure is off Ovie means the TEAM will do well in the playoffs is bad logic.


The Metro standings are very tight so far this season, and it is not at all certain that the Caps will even be in them.  Their recent hot streak has given them a little cushion, and they've weathered their injury/suspension issues well so far, but we are just now getting into the meat of the season.

while my statement was sarcastically exaggerated, albeit a tad aggressive, the logic is quite sound.


You’re post sounds like he had a literal exorcism where his head was spinning 360 degrees and/or projectile vomiting pea soup  about the Verizon Center every spring, but now everything’s just honkey-dory and he go about happy and taking care of himself and he will be rewarded. . .


But the biggest reason his stats are so high: Reidon wants to keep his job, and for the players and management to like him, so he’s using a pond-hockey playbook.  Players and teams in a D-first/200ft system, do not score this many goals for this long, or GIVE UP as many, particularly with an elite goalie.


Reidens systen is built for stat padding, players like their stats padded so they have fun while they can

[BlackIce]

while my statement was sarcastically exaggerated, albeit a tad aggressive, the logic is quite sound.


You’re post sounds like he had a literal exorcism where his head was spinning 360 degrees and/or projectile vomiting pea soup  about the Verizon Center every spring, but now everything’s just honkey-dory and he go about happy and taking care of himself and he will be rewarded. . .


But the biggest reason his stats are so high: Reidon wants to keep his job, and for the players and management to like him, so he’s using a pond-hockey playbook.  Players and teams in a D-first/200ft system, do not score this many goals for this long, or GIVE UP as many, particularly with an elite goalie.


Reidens systen is built for stat padding, players like their stats padded so they have fun while they can

Regardless of the hyperbole defense, you still haven't addressed what I really meant in my original post, which I can't know for sure, but I think is valid speculation:  That Ovie has some pressure off him this year, he is playing like it, and the results so far have turned out very well.


And I don't buy your Reirden/pond hockey theory.  At least, it's not borne out by the partial-year stats we have thus far.


Last year the Caps scored 3.16 goals/game in the regular season, and gave up 2.91 goals/game (259/239).  Now this year they are scoring 3.72 per game thus far, and giving up 3.09 (119/99).  Yep, they are scoring more, and giving up more.  But the funny thing is, the ENTIRE difference between their goals allowed per game last year and their goals allowed per game this year is in the extra goals they've yielded on the PK, which is the one time when the team is focused on trying to defend.  (PK % is about 75 this year vs. slightly over 80 last year, which accounts for about a 6+ goal difference given the number of PK situations they've had so far this season.)  So if the team is focused on playing "pond hockey," it hasn't affected their GA thus far.  However, for whatever reasons, their offensive game has picked up significantly from last year.


Now I wanted to check the league as a whole, because I was under the impression that scoring was up significantly, which I suspected was due to the increasing removal of physicality and letting the skilled guys do their thing, + the reduction in size of some of the goalie equipment.  Scoring is up a bit, but not all that much:  3.08 goals per team per game this year as opposed to 2.98 per team per game last year, which surprised me.


Bottom line is this -- IF we were to assume that the Caps were more "pond hockeyish" this year than last (which, having attended some games, I don't really see), it is showing up ONLY on the offensive side of the scoresheet.  Which means that so far, if Reirden has pushed more wide-open hockey, it's been to the team's net benefit, and it seems to have been to this teams net benefit more than it has been to the league as a whole.


Now, will things need to change if the Caps make the playoffs?  I'd think so.  But the objective of the regular season is to do as well as you can in the regular season, because you can't win playoff games in the regular season.  And I have no criticism of Reirden for the hockey he has this team playing thus far. 

[Maacoshark]

   Just curious Black Ice if you have ever played pond hockey. Because a lot if Caps games have looked like pond hockey. They have been undisciplined and havent played with structure.

[4 Caps]

Who cares what kind of hockey they are playing, they have won 12 out of their last 14 games.  I hope doing whatever their doing continues if it results in wins.  They proved last year that they can make adjustments in the playoffs when neccessary and no reason to think they can’t or won’t this year. 

[Maacoshark]

Who cares what kind of hockey they are playing, they have won 12 out of their last 14 games.  I hope doing whatever their doing continues if it results in wins.  They proved last year that they can make adjustments in the playoffs when neccessary and no reason to think they can’t or won’t this year.

     Actually I care what kind of hockey we are playing. I know we have won 12 of 14 but a lot of those 12 wins havent been pretty. We got lucky to win some of those games. We are winning with skill but no structure. If we continue to play like this our luck will run out eventually. If we play this style in the playoffs they will be golfing early.
     So far this season we have only played a handful of complete games where we were solid in all zones for an entire game. Quite a few games we got outplayed but still won. We rely in skill more than hard work.

[Mickstix]

   Pond hockey.. Youz guyz.. 

[PUCKNRUSH]

I’m in the long suffering process, as a hockey old schooler, of weighing out the pros and cons of continuing to stay a fan of hockey.
Obviously, for now, I’ve decided it’s still worth watching.  I’ve been wrestling with the dilemma of comparing the “good old hockey”, to the newer, softer style, less pure and less fundamentally sound, hockey!  [size=78%]I both want to see, and miss, the physical, grittier, hockey![/size]
[/size]
[/size][size=78%]For the last 3 or 4 years, many in the newer, generally younger crowd, have advised me that I should just accept the changes, because the NHL will never go back to the way it was.[/size]
I’ve basically dumped the NFL already, as I’ve gradually come to the decision, FOR MYSELF, over the past 5 years, that the frustration of watching it, outweighs the enjoyment I used to get out of its competition!
I’m not afraid to do this with the NHL either, personally, although if I did, it would be the letting go of my last major sport!


I say all this because I’ve realized that EVERY SINGLE NHL TEAM, is guilty, OFTEN, of not playing the type of game, that I like to see!! Outcomes of the general NHL game schedule are as fickle as ever, on a DAILY BASIS.
NO TEAM, that I watch now, plays that smash-mouth, in your face, “Broad Street Bullies”, type of hockey that I love to watch!! Hell, we don’t even get little snippets of it anymore!


I admit to having to let go of some of my “purist passion”, already, in order to accept the game as it is presented today! Do I like having to do it !! FUCKIN HELL NO!!! But I can’t keep on setting myself up for having a cloud of “bitterness”, randomly floating in my brain, throughout the NHL season!  UNTIL, the time comes when I have my NFL realization moment, with the NHL!!


Not there yet!


Rush

[Maacoshark]

  Pond hockey.. Youz guyz.. 

     Its actually not a bad comparison. Our city holds a winter festival every February. One of the events, maybe the biggest is the hockey tournament that is played on the lake. Dozens of teams enter this tournament. Most teams consist of friends throwing a team together at the last minute. Myself and 2 of my cousins used to throw a team in every year. It was fun and we did a lot of drinking but we were pretty much freelancing out there. There was no structure. There always was a handful of teams that took it very serious and those are the teams that would advance the furthest in this tournament. And that was because they played with structure and had coaching. I can't remember how many teams would be entered but the majority of it was just pond hockey. It really wasn't meant to be taken serious.

[Maacoshark]

I’m in the long suffering process, as a hockey old schooler, of weighing out the pros and cons of continuing to stay a fan of hockey.
Obviously, for now, I’ve decided it’s still worth watching.  I’ve been wrestling with the dilemma of comparing the “good old hockey”, to the newer, softer style, less pure and less fundamentally sound, hockey!  [size=78%]I both want to see, and miss, the physical, grittier, hockey![/size]

[size=78%]For the last 3 or 4 years, many in the newer, generally younger crowd, have advised me that I should just accept the changes, because the NHL will never go back to the way it was.[/size]
I’ve basically dumped the NFL already, as I’ve gradually come to the decision, FOR MYSELF, over the past 5 years, that the frustration of watching it, outweighs the enjoyment I used to get out of its competition!
I’m not afraid to do this with the NHL either, personally, although if I did, it would be the letting go of my last major sport!


I say all this because I’ve realized that EVERY SINGLE NHL TEAM, is guilty, OFTEN, of not playing the type of game, that I like to see!! Outcomes of the general NHL game schedule are as fickle as ever, on a DAILY BASIS.
NO TEAM, that I watch now, plays that smash-mouth, in your face, “Broad Street Bullies”, type of hockey that I love to watch!! Hell, we don’t even get little snippets of it anymore!


I admit to having to let go of some of my “purist passion”, already, in order to accept the game as it is presented today! Do I like having to do it !! FUCKIN HELL NO!!! But I can’t keep on setting myself up for having a cloud of “bitterness”, randomly floating in my brain, throughout the NHL season!  UNTIL, the time comes when I have my NFL realization moment, with the NHL!!


Not there yet!


Rush

     I am having a hard time adapting to the new game. I'm fine with trying to bring more skill to the game. There are more small speedy guys. Defencemen are mostly puck movers now.
     The thing I am having a problem with is the physical part being taken out if the game to protect the smaller players. Everyone is going on that small skilled are the new thing. The only reason most of these small players are successful is because the league is changing the rules to ensure.
      I am having a very hard time with the Tom Wilson thing. It isnt right what the league has done to him. They have made him out to be the villain of the NHL. We all know that some of his hits are borderline in today's game but he is far from a dirty player. Yet the league calls him a predator.
    Tom Wilson plays the game the way it is meant to be played. He is a 200 foot player that is physical and can fight if needed. He works hard on every shift. Unfortunately the league is trying to get rid of those kind of players. They want the small skilled players skating with their heads down with their fancy stick handling and toedrags. If players were taught how to play proper defense those plays wouldnt happen as often as they do. The game against the Sabres when Eichel undressed Orlov is a perfect example. That wasnt a great play by Eichel. It was poor defense by Orlov. Orlov had position on him but didnt play the man. Got caught watching the puck. Sorry Orlov but that was a very easy defensive play. About as routine as it should get. I would have been fine with that play if Orlov took that man but got beat because of strength but that play was unacceptable. That's the way guys play defense now they chase the puck. I despise when people use the term he has a good stick in the defensive zone. Because he strips the odd puck from someone or gets lucky and picks off a pass. This is how players like Erik Karlsson get mistaken for good defensive players. And I know people rip on our Carlson for his defense at times but the way the game has changed he might actually be our best defensive dman now. I can't think of anyone else on the team that is better.

[Mickstix]

Puck, since turning 50, my motto has been "don't sweat the small stuff".. And anything having to do with sports is "the small stuff"..  The NFL will probably be flag football in our lifetime (at least at the skills positions) but what are ya gonna do? Stop watching? I've rooted for the sorry ass Redskins since birth.. If I can stomach through the Dan Snyder era, I can stomach some sissy ass rules.. Is what it is my brotha! 

[DC_1908]

Regardless of the hyperbole defense, you still haven't addressed what I really meant in my original post, which I can't know for sure, but I think is valid speculation:  That Ovie has some pressure off him this year, he is playing like it, and the results so far have turned out very well.


And I don't buy your Reirden/pond hockey theory.  At least, it's not borne out by the partial-year stats we have thus far.


Last year the Caps scored 3.16 goals/game in the regular season, and gave up 2.91 goals/game (259/239).  Now this year they are scoring 3.72 per game thus far, and giving up 3.09 (119/99).  Yep, they are scoring more, and giving up more.  But the funny thing is, the ENTIRE difference between their goals allowed per game last year and their goals allowed per game this year is in the extra goals they've yielded on the PK, which is the one time when the team is focused on trying to defend.  (PK % is about 75 this year vs. slightly over 80 last year, which accounts for about a 6+ goal difference given the number of PK situations they've had so far this season.)  So if the team is focused on playing "pond hockey," it hasn't affected their GA thus far.  However, for whatever reasons, their offensive game has picked up significantly from last year.


Now I wanted to check the league as a whole, because I was under the impression that scoring was up significantly, which I suspected was due to the increasing removal of physicality and letting the skilled guys do their thing, + the reduction in size of some of the goalie equipment.  Scoring is up a bit, but not all that much:  3.08 goals per team per game this year as opposed to 2.98 per team per game last year, which surprised me.


Bottom line is this -- IF we were to assume that the Caps were more "pond hockeyish" this year than last (which, having attended some games, I don't really see), it is showing up ONLY on the offensive side of the scoresheet.  Which means that so far, if Reirden has pushed more wide-open hockey, it's been to the team's net benefit, and it seems to have been to this teams net benefit more than it has been to the league as a whole.


Now, will things need to change if the Caps make the playoffs?  I'd think so.  But the objective of the regular season is to do as well as you can in the regular season, because you can't win playoff games in the regular season.  And I have no criticism of Reirden for the hockey he has this team playing thus far.

So the increase in the average goals for and against is following the same trend as the rest of the league, so that you don’t see evidence that that stat-increases are the result a system being designed to increase stats?   The use of averages supports you’re point as it levels out the peaks and drops making it appear that each game is 3-2.  3-2 does not appear to  indicate the high scoring pond hockey.


But, they have scored five or more goals (all types), in 34% of their games, and have allowed 5 or more in 22%.  So with these seven games over 5, Holtbys two SO have their GAA “down” to 3.09. 


You still don’t buy that this is the result of Reirdons Monumental (pun intended) pond-hockey/videgame stat padding system?

[DC_1908]

Who cares what kind of hockey they are playing, they have won 12 out of their last 14 games.  I hope doing whatever their doing continues if it results in wins.  They proved last year that they can make adjustments in the playoffs when neccessary and no reason to think they can’t or won’t this year.

Actually, there is every reason to think they can not or will not adjust this year, and the over confidence that "they did it once, they can do it again", is one of the biggest reasons everyone should be noting 

[BlackIce]

So the increase in the average goals for and against is following the same trend as the rest of the league, so that you don’t see evidence that that stat-increases are the result a system being designed to increase stats?   The use of averages supports you’re point as it levels out the peaks and drops making it appear that each game is 3-2.  3-2 does not appear to  indicate the high scoring pond hockey.


But, they have scored five or more goals (all types), in 34% of their games, and have allowed 5 or more in 22%.  So with these seven games over 5, Holtbys two SO have their GAA “down” to 3.09. 


You still don’t buy that this is the result of Reirdons Monumental (pun intended) pond-hockey/videgame stat padding system?

If it's happening throughout the league, it isn't Reirdon's system, it's the league's doing.  The league wanted a more wide-open game, and they've got it.  It's difficult to execute the "good old fashioned" type of game when the league has legislated out many of its tactics.