POLL: Capitals Goalie going into the playoffs

[ArJunaZ]

The Capitals coaches have a very good problem, two world class goalies. The time for evaluations is pretty much past. Decisions now must be made.

Braden Holtby was a Vezina Trophy winner two seasons ago and was runner up last season.  He has been an absolute beast in goal for years, but has had some issues this season, not all of which were of his own doing. The team has played poorly in front of both he and Grubauer.  Holtby hasn't been awful, but Grubauer has simply shined consistently, showing himself to be as good as Holtby and maybe even better at this time.

Philipp Grubauer started the season poorly, but again it was mostly due to horrendous defensive play in front of him. Lately Grubauer has been on a tear with some of the best goalie stats over the last few months.

Grubauer's game against the Penguins on April 1, 2018 was stellar to say the least.  The normally explosive Penguins offense had no answer for Grubauer.  Besides Grubauer currently being one of the hottest goalies in the NHL I think the fact the Penguins have rarely played against Grubauer gives us an advantage.  That Barry Trotz started Grubauer against the Penguins on Sunday spoke volumes IMO about where he is leaning or maybe even committed already.

As we're all PAINFULLY aware of The Capitals have not fared well at crunch time against the Penguins in post season. This was not only due to Holtby, though he had not been stellar. Our offense also failed to show up far too often. Many of our players are coming alive lately. A hot goalie in net could be just the change we need and give us a psychological edge over the Hens.  I we can play with a hot goalie in the playoffs and all cylinders are firing elsewhere in our lineup we could see magic finally breaking through the Capitals post season woes.

All that being said I would like to know where our members stand on this. 

Of course, it would be great to hear your thoughts too.


You can choose up to two options in the poll, but I ask that you only use the second vote if your first vote is option 3 or 4.

[DC_1908]

The Caps are already screwing this up, so I will not be surprised if they go with with Grubby.


This way they can:
-use Holtby as a scapegoat for the garbage skaters and system in front of him
-not have to hold the players accountable (because Euro-feelings)
-get all the attention and marketing  of the “back up goalie” they can
-any success would justify thier bullshit “hot goalie” excuse they’ve used for the past 10 years
-if Grubby wins a round, they can dump Holts salary (in yet another terrible trade),so Dickless and BetaMale can get more overpaid Eurotrash.


So yes they have installed a hopeless system, with sloppy players , in front of an elite goalie in his prime , and put him in front of the Kool Aid firing squad for entertainment and to keep the blame off them.


Make no mistake, we are worst playoff style team in the league.  Saying “Grubauer is better than Holtby” is just cyonide in the Rock Red Kool Aide  in the “we have a chance” toast.

[Maacoshark]

No clue who will be or should be the starter. I am a big Holtby supporter and I do think he is the better of the 2 but I can't ignore the fact that Grubauer is in a hot streak.

[BlackIce]

Just because the Caps committed to Holtby as their franchise goaltender before Grubauer established himself doesn't mean that Holtby is a better goaltender.  It just means that the franchise made a commitment to him.


Look at Gruby's stats.  He is absolutely in the conversation about who is the better goalie.  There is no simply declaring that Holtby is unquestionably better, because the evidence doesn't support it.  Two seasons ago Grubauer had a little bit worse performance stats, last year they were almost identical, and this year Grubauer's performance stats have been better.  All this while Grubauer has never had even treatment with Holtby being the franchise commitment.  Not that I'm complaining about this; the franchise made its decision and to this point has played it out.  So be it.  But that has NOTHING to do with a legitimate comparison of the quality of the two goalies.


The franchise is approaching a decision point with Grubauer.  They have RFA control of him for one more year, though they will need to give him a significant raise (or I would presume that Gruby would take them to arbitration.)  But I COULD see someone signing Gruby to an offer sheet this summer that the Caps cannot match and making a commitment to him as their starter.  If that doesn't happen, I assume Gruby is gone after next season if Holtby is still around, one way or another.

[DC_1908]

Just because the Caps committed to Holtby as their franchise goaltender before Grubauer established himself doesn't mean that Holtby is a better goaltender.  It just means that the franchise made a commitment to him.


Look at Gruby's stats.  He is absolutely in the conversation about who is the better goalie.  There is no simply declaring that Holtby is unquestionably better, because the evidence doesn't support it.  Two seasons ago Grubauer had a little bit worse performance stats, last year they were almost identical, and this year Grubauer's performance stats have been better.  All this while Grubauer has never had even treatment with Holtby being the franchise commitment.  Not that I'm complaining about this; the franchise made its decision and to this point has played it out.  So be it.  But that has NOTHING to do with a legitimate comparison of the quality of the two goalies.


The franchise is approaching a decision point with Grubauer.  They have RFA control of him for one more year, though they will need to give him a significant raise (or I would presume that Gruby would take them to arbitration.)  But I COULD see someone signing Gruby to an offer sheet this summer that the Caps cannot match and making a commitment to him as their starter.  If that doesn't happen, I assume Gruby is gone after next season if Holtby is still around, one way or another.

So Grubby is on the same level as a two rime Vezna finalist and winner the past two seasons? 


I see where saying, and you’d be correct except for one thing:  minutes.  Now rather Holtby being over worked has lead to this slump or not, can only be estimated or assumed.  So we do know is Grubbys numbers are in a small window in certain situations and typically lower scoring teams.  This leaves us with “the chance” he has both the consistency and work ethic Holtby does to replace and do better than someone who finished as one of the top three goalies in the past two years.


I sure as hell ain’t takin those odds with that data

[BlackIce]

So Grubby is on the same level as a two rime Vezna finalist and winner the past two seasons? 


I see where saying, and you’d be correct except for one thing:  minutes.  Now rather Holtby being over worked has lead to this slump or not, can only be estimated or assumed.  So we do know is Grubbys numbers are in a small window in certain situations and typically lower scoring teams.  This leaves us with “the chance” he has both the consistency and work ethic Holtby does to replace and do better than someone who finished as one of the top three goalies in the past two years.


I sure as hell ain’t takin those odds with that data

Yes, Gruby MAY be on the same level as a Vezina-quality goalie.  We don't know for sure.  The problem with the minutes argument is that it is circular logic. Since the Caps made the franchise commitment to Holtby awhile back, Grubauer has been the backup goalie by definition, which means he doesn't get the minutes.  But then you are trying to turn the logic around and say that since Grubauer hasn't gotten the minutes, he's just a backup goalie and can have no claim to being as good as the starter.  It simply isn't true.  I understand that there is still doubt about Grubauer until he gets a chance to shoulder the majority of the load for a significant amount of time.  But that is what it is -- doubt, not certainty.


For those of you who are claiming that Grubauer has gotten the lesser teams/lower-scoring teams during his time in DC, have you done your research and made sure those statements are true?  Or are you simply stating "conventional wisdom?"  Even if there is some truth to it, certainly over the years some of the more lopsided losses the Caps have had have been to lesser teams, where it seems they weren't ready to play.  In those circumstances, categorizing a goalie's performance by the supposed quality of the opposition runs into a snag.

[KitFisto]

My issue is without Mitch Korn being around Holtby seems to struggle. A player can't be dependent on a single coach. It's like he forgets how to play unless Mitch is here.

[DC_1908]

Yes, Gruby MAY be on the same level as a Vezina-quality goalie.  We don't know for sure.  The problem with the minutes argument is that it is circular logic. Since the Caps made the franchise commitment to Holtby awhile back, Grubauer has been the backup goalie by definition, which means he doesn't get the minutes.  But then you are trying to turn the logic around and say that since Grubauer hasn't gotten the minutes, he's just a backup goalie and can have no claim to being as good as the starter.  It simply isn't true.  I understand that there is still doubt about Grubauer until he gets a chance to shoulder the majority of the load for a significant amount of time.  But that is what it is -- doubt, not certainty.


For those of you who are claiming that Grubauer has gotten the lesser teams/lower-scoring teams during his time in DC, have you done your research and made sure those statements are true?  Or are you simply stating "conventional wisdom?"  Even if there is some truth to it, certainly over the years some of the more lopsided losses the Caps have had have been to lesser teams, where it seems they weren't
L ready to play.  In those circumstances, categorizing a goalie's performance by the supposed quality of the opposition runs into a snag.

Sorry man, if I submitted something like you’re suggesting, without a distinct detail on how it would, not could work , my director and VP would laugh because they me go  I’m joking for proposing a strategy with minimal and thing other “ya never know”


I know the “Hate Holtby and  Grubby is the Messiah and Gives our CHANCe” is just a sideshow for entertainment and distraction and creating a scapegoat when Dickless and BetaMale rollout their annual excuses

[Maacoshark]

Just because the Caps committed to Holtby as their franchise goaltender before Grubauer established himself doesn't mean that Holtby is a better goaltender.  It just means that the franchise made a commitment to him.


Look at Gruby's stats.  He is absolutely in the conversation about who is the better goalie.  There is no simply declaring that Holtby is unquestionably better, because the evidence doesn't support it.  Two seasons ago Grubauer had a little bit worse performance stats, last year they were almost identical, and this year Grubauer's performance stats have been better.  All this while Grubauer has never had even treatment with Holtby being the franchise commitment.  Not that I'm complaining about this; the franchise made its decision and to this point has played it out.  So be it.  But that has NOTHING to do with a legitimate comparison of the quality of the two goalies.


The franchise is approaching a decision point with Grubauer.  They have RFA control of him for one more year, though they will need to give him a significant raise (or I would presume that Gruby would take them to arbitration.)  But I COULD see someone signing Gruby to an offer sheet this summer that the Caps cannot match and making a commitment to him as their starter.  If that doesn't happen, I assume Gruby is gone after next season if Holtby is still around, one way or another.

    I don't just use stats when judging how good a goaltender is. Grubauer is playing very well right now but he is not a great technical goalie. Holtby is better technically.

[Maacoshark]

So Grubby is on the same level as a two rime Vezna finalist and winner the past two seasons? 


I see where saying, and you’d be correct except for one thing:  minutes.  Now rather Holtby being over worked has lead to this slump or not, can only be estimated or assumed.  So we do know is Grubbys numbers are in a small window in certain situations and typically lower scoring teams.  This leaves us with “the chance” he has both the consistency and work ethic Holtby does to replace and do better than someone who finished as one of the top three goalies in the past two years.


I sure as hell ain’t takin those odds with that data

    I agree with DC. Grubauer has played well in limited playing time and for the most part he has played bottom teams. He just started a game against the Pens for the first time in his career.

[BlackIce]

I just looked at Grubauer's appearances this season.


17 have come against Non-playoff teams.
15 have come against playoff teams.
2 have come against potential playoff/bubble teams (Colorado/Florida)


OOPS - my bad.  Colorado is a playoff team at the moment, so the count should really be 17/16/1 or 18/16 if you want to count the Panthers out.


Since, besides the Caps as a playoff team half the league will be playoff teams and half won't, a "representative" set of appearances would be about half and half.  Grubauer is very close to that.  So at least this season the statement that Grubauer has played mostly/basically against lesser teams is not true.

[Maacoshark]

I just looked at Grubauer's appearances this season.


17 have come against Non-playoff teams.
15 have come against playoff teams.
2 have come against potential playoff/bubble teams (Colorado/Florida)


OOPS - my bad.  Colorado is a playoff team at the moment, so the count should really be 17/16/1 or 18/16 if you want to count the Panthers out.


Since, besides the Caps as a playoff team half the league will be playoff teams and half won't, a "representative" set of appearances would be about half and half.  Grubauer is very close to that.  So at least this season the statement that Grubauer has played mostly/basically against lesser teams is not true.

   You included the games that Grubauer came in relief. Those shouldn't be included.
Grubauer started 12 games against teams that are currently in a playoff spot and 15 against teams outside the playoffs. 3 starts against Buffalo, 2 against Montreal and the Rangers, also had started against Ottawa, Arizona, Detroit and Vancouver. Pretty weak competition. He did have a handful of starts against some top tier teams like Tampa twice, the Pens and the Jets. Holtby definitely got the tougher matchups until Trotz gave him a rest. Same thing last season. Grubauer put up good numbers against all the bottom feeders.

[BlackIce]

So pro rate the partial games.  But he still played them.


Point is, he doesn't "just play against the weakest teams" as others have been saying.


And there is still the issue of the Caps playing down to the level of weaker teams, which everyone around here seems to complain about, which would make games against them "less of a picnic" or "more of a test" than they should be.  Do you believe that, or not?

[DC_1908]

So pro rate the partial games.  But he still played them.


Point is, he doesn't "just play against the weakest teams" as others have been saying.


And there is still the issue of the Caps playing down to the level of weaker teams, which everyone around here seems to complain about, which would make games against them "less of a picnic" or "more of a test" than they should be.  Do you believe that, or not?

The issue with pro-rating would only work if you factored in the gap of the score and non poweplay shots, as moat teams teams tend to adjust their offense pressure when in the lead. 


Also I think you have been taking what we said out of context.  Prior to the last few weeks when there has been a rotation, Trotz wasn’t just going say “Gruby needs a game” and throw him in against a high scoring team.  In fact, in the case of back to backs, he was more likely to play Grubby first so Holts played again the higher scoring/important team in the standings.


Given that alone, you don’t need to deep dive into stats to see Holtby faces the higher quality opponents in a larger volume.  Therefore Grubby played less and cannot be accurately compared.


I get where your coming from, but the only real concrete data that’s gonna tell us who should start is the coaches documentation/notes from the videos as they look to see if Holtby is ready or not.

[DC_1908]

What it really comes down to is ww are not in the "Cinderella Story" scenario that many think we are or want us to be in,  Yes, "The Back Up taking over and winning" is always fun, but without prospective can be a disaster for all parties.


For example:  The Kings, Rangers, and Canucks where all in this situation: Elite Goalies with hot back ups, the back ups where traded as there was never a question regardless of salary


Then you have Thiabult, Fluery, and Rask, Upper tier goalies with big contracts and and top prospect behind them.  They where moved considering salary


Lastly I can think of Howard, and Bishop where the younger goalie was just better so there time was split or they where moved


There is practically no evidence to not say, say Holtby is an elite goalie, in fact there is ample evidence (sans getting past the second round)regardless of this slump to say he is.  This slump which may in fact may have been caused by playing so much if coaches did not have faith in his backup. . .

Now, the story is this backup is better and Holtby was a fluke and a bum?  In what two weeks, three at most?  Mkes for a good "story", but thats it.


And for the record, I can bet that in at least 90% of the playoff scenarios, "the goalie" ours or theirs will not be the deciding factor, but will be made the "excuse" for wins and loses (ie “hot goalie” and/or “goalie controversy”)

[Maacoshark]

    I'm guessing you are a Holtby supporter too. I agree completely with your posts on this topic.

[BlackIce]

First, I NEVER said that Holtby was a bum, or that Grubauer is better.  NEVER.  What I have said, consistently from the beginning, was that evidence is mounting that calls into question how much better he is, if at all, than Grubauer.  In my mind it's an open question at this point.  It is others who have closed their minds and said Grubauer simply isn't as good as Holtby, period.


Like it or not, if you look at last few years' goaltender stats, Grubauer is gaining on Holtby, to the point where, if you now look at the qualifying goaltender stats and limit it to the Eastern Conference, you'll notice whose name is at the top.  Might Grubauer's workload be slightly less challenging than Holtby's?  Perhaps.  Does it make a .7 goals per game (about a 30%) difference?  Welllllll, that's another question, isn't it? 


This relationship is an ongoing and evolving one between the two goalies.  It not only affects the decision that might be made about who starts in goal next week, it affects longer-term decisions about who to keep, who to trade potentially, how to evaluate the progression of Samsanov and, if the organization is looking at him to be the "next generation" goaltender, how to best transition to him over the next 2-4 years.


As for the immediate question, who starts in goal next week, I truly don't care.  IMO an argument can be made either way, and however the organization decides, I'm fine with it.  DC, you come from a different perspective, where virtually everything this organization does is wrong so it is very unlikely that they make the right decision.  So be it.

[KitFisto]

Trotz said this morning that the match up will factor into the decision.  Philly has done well vs Grubauer so in my opinion we'll see Holtby if we draw the Flyers.

[DC_1908]

First, I NEVER said that Holtby was a bum, or that Grubauer is better.  NEVER.  What I have said, consistently from the beginning, was that evidence is mounting that calls into question how much better he is, if at all, than Grubauer.  In my mind it's an open question at this point.  It is others who have closed their minds and said Grubauer simply isn't as good as Holtby, period.


Like it or not, if you look at last few years' goaltender stats, Grubauer is gaining on Holtby, to the point where, if you now look at the qualifying goaltender stats and limit it to the Eastern Conference, you'll notice whose name is at the top.  Might Grubauer's workload be slightly less challenging than Holtby's?  Perhaps.  Does it make a .7 goals per game (about a 30%) difference?  Welllllll, that's another question, isn't it? 


This relationship is an ongoing and evolving one between the two goalies.  It not only affects the decision that might be made about who starts in goal next week, it affects longer-term decisions about who to keep, who to trade potentially, how to evaluate the progression of Samsanov and, if the organization is looking at him to be the "next generation" goaltender, how to best transition to him over the next 2-4 years.


As for the immediate question, who starts in goal next week, I truly don't care.  IMO an argument can be made either way, and however the organization decides, I'm fine with it.  DC, you come from a different perspective, where virtually everything this organization does is wrong so it is very unlikely that they make the right decision.  So be it.

Apologies, To clarify is wasn't referring to you directly (and was exaggerating), but to the new "anti Holtby" mob that is popping up not just here, but all over.


I am also pointing out, that there is little if any value on doing a long term comparison of stats when the base numbers are so different, and the variables may be even more.  IOW the 100 shots that Holtby faces are different than the 100 shots Grubby faces, particularly when he faces 2 or 3 times more in the time for Grubby to get 100.   So from a data perspective you can not easily compare the two until the data is closer. 


What your eluding to is forecasting but even that is difficult to anything more than showing two trends and predicting what they would be, Nice to look at, but in sports we simply don't have the data to do it because its highly classified within the coaching staff (I do this kind of stuff for a living by the way).


But anyways, good discussion and thanks for joining us!

[HoustonCapsFan]

This is playoff hockey.  We have a good problem in that we have 2 very good goalies.  But, you have to go with the hot player.  Of late Gruby has looked better than Holtby.  Give the nod to Gruby but have a slightly longer than short leash on him.