Draft Lottery

[Beaglefan2]

So it seems that the bottom 11 teams have a chance at the top pick (Bedard).  Currently we are # 11. Here is a link to the standings and a draft simulator. The first time I played it, the Caps moved up to the number 2 slot.  The 7th time I played it, they got the top pick.


If we somehow end up in 11th or 10th place by a point or two, I say Mantha is the MVP!  Here is the link.


Tankathon | 2023 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator

[BlackIce]

I did the simulation 10 times.  Nine times we stayed at pick 11 (which means a team  with a worse record than us won the lottery, so any changes in order didn't affect us) and once  we moved  DOWN a slot, because Buffalo won a spot at the top of the lottery.


All finishing in the bottom 11  does  is  give us a chance,  albeit  very  small,  of  winning the lottery and getting the  #1 pick. But we do also have  a chance of moving down, which is probably larger than our chance of  moving up.  To move up, we'd have to get a winning number ourselves; but if ANY of the teams in the lottery with a better record than us gets selected  and we don't, then we move down in the draft  order.

[Mickstix]

Has anyone outside the top (bottom) 2 or 3 every won the #1 pick via lottery? I don't pay attention much, but I used to watch the NBA lottery, since the Bullets have sucked forever, and they never moved up.

[Beaglefan2]

They have changed it a lot over the years and didn't used to allow a team to move up more than 3 or 4 slots.  The Caps moved up from 3 to 1 in 2004 and got Ovi.  Who was the worst team that year that got hosed?  Pittsburg!  Ha!  They did keep at it though and were worst the next year with another tank job and got Crosby.


The most recent change was for last year when they allowed that teams could move up a maximum of 10 spots, meaning that the 11th worst team could get the number 1 pick - which will be the Caps this year!

[BlackIce]

They have changed it a lot over the years and didn't used to allow a team to move up more than 3 or 4 slots.  The Caps moved up from 3 to 1 in 2004 and got Ovi.  Who was the worst team that year that got hosed?  Pittsburg!  Ha!  They did keep at it though and were worst the next year with another tank job and got Crosby.


The most recent change was for last year when they allowed that teams could move up a maximum of 10 spots, meaning that the 11th worst team could get the number 1 pick - which will be the Caps this year!

Pittsburgh didn't exactly get hosed in 2004, because their consolation prize for moving from #1 to #2 was Malkin.  IIRC, he was thought of as a pick 1A with Ovie that year.  Every draft is different.  This year seems to have a clear #1, Bedard, who is considered the best prospect since McDavid.  There are three other outstanding prospects a step below Bedard, as I understand, and then the talent pool drops off another bit. But  I think overall, this year's draft is considered to be pretty deep in promising talent.

[BlackIce]

Go Red Wings -- take it to the Pens!!  Build up those standings points; you can get past the Caps if you really try!!


And don't look now, but Vancouver and St. Louis in the west are fast catching up to the Caps in the point standings.  It is quite conceivable  that the Caps could finish as high as 8th in the draft order, if they can continue to stumble.