Greatest Goal Scorer of All Time

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right, what adverts really popped up




 

[richkrt99]

SO.....  before you judge...


THIS IS THE BOREDOM THREAD....




Ovi is currently at 698 goals and 8th in ALL TIME goals ever


He will (should) pass Mike Gartner this year who has 708, (if Ovi can manage 11 more goals this year - which would also give him another 50g season).


Ovi should surpass Phil Espisito (717), Marcel Dionne (733), and Brett Hull (741) next year (if Ovi manages 10 more this year and 30+ goals next year) which would put Ovi at #4 on the all time list by end of next season.
THat would leave only Jagr (766), Mr. Hockey (801) and The Great One (894) ahead of Ovi.  Ovi will easily surpass Jagr and should surpass Mr Hockey with relative ease in the coming seasons


Ovi will have to work at it to catch Gretzky at 894.  I think it's possible but it would require roughly 37-38 goals a year average for 5 more seasons (If Ovi ends this year with 50)






What's more amazing is...go look at the NHL all time goal leaders.  Of the top 100 there are only a handful still playing (actually there are 6)...meaning only a handful of Ovi-era players are even in the top 100 and none near his level of goal scoring.  Ovi was born in 1985.  There is not a single player born in 80's in the top 50 on this list, and only 7 players in the top 100 (51-100)s, and most of those well behind Ovi.  Nobody within 50 ranking spots of Ovi.


Ovi is currently 8th with 698.  The next closest has 243 fewer goals:
Cindy (#58) with 455
Kovalchuck (65) with 441
Staal (71) with 434
Stamkos (84) with 418  (actually Stamkos was born in 1990 so he's a bit younger)
Malkin (93) with 408


Patrick Marleau was born in 1979, but I'll give him props - he is next highest (to Ovi) of all current players with 561 goals (ranking him at #25).  He is 40 and likely this is his last year, and he has played 1708 games - 429 more (roughly 5.25 more seasons) than Ovi.


There are only four players ever with (10 or more) 40 goal seasons...Gretzky (12), Ovi (11), Dionne (10), Lemieux (10) (Gartner (9), Bossy (9)
Most 30 goal seasons:  Gartner (17), Ovi (15), Jagr (15), Gretzky (14), Dionne (14)...and I'd expect Ovi will get two more to catch Gartner


Ovi is certainly the best goal scorer of this generation, and probably the best ever with all else considered.  Catching Gretzky would certainly cement that.
Despite the year Ovi is having, I do think father time will start to wear on him in coming seasons.  I expect him to remain a viable threat, but don't expect he will maintain the 50 goal pace (or even 40 really).


Anyway, GO OVI

[DC_1908]

What also be noted is Gretzky wasn’t scoring at the same rate Ovie was at the same age, Gretzky had his last 40 goal season when he was 30.   
Jager put up 54 at age 33 then only put up 30 twice in until he was 45


Since turning 30, Ovies hit 50 twice, 49 once, and has 40 goals in 53 games this year.


He’s constantly averaged .6 GPG for his career.  While being 200 away from breaking the record, at .6 a game pace that he’s constantly maintaining, we’re looking at 122 games from today.


There’s little sign that this rate will drop off in the next two years

[alta]

Id bet money that OV signs a short term deal so he can retire with Backy, that'd be in five more years barring a serious injury. It appears 900 goals is well within reach. His current contract was very front end heavy, he's already made his fortune. Hopefully he sees the benefit of not running Ted over the coals so the team can get more talent in here, kinda like Zimmerman just did

[BlackIce]

Uh, Ovie's current contract was NOT front end loaded.  His annual salary was $9 million for its first 6 years, $10 million for the last 7.  Regardless, it is true that he has made a mint during his time here, and I think the entire organization would say that he has been well worth it.


I agree that he may agree to a 4-year deal this time, expiring at the same time as Backstrom's new deal.  I do expect, though, that it won't be "cheap."  I think because of the realities of pecking order, it will be higher AAV than Backstrom's deal.  In addition, Ovie knows that there is going to be a LOT of attention on him if/when his goal totals pass the remaining people in front of him and he attempts to scale Mt. Gretsky, and he will want to share in the financial reward that such a chase would bring to the franchise.  I personally think that he will not reach the summit because his big minutes and heavy style of play will deteriorate his offense before he can mount a serious challenge.  I would say his chances are better than even to reach 800 goals and become the #2 all-time goal scorer.  The last 90 are going to be very hard for him to come by.

[Mickstix]

My money says he signs 1 year deals (after this next contract) until he breaks the record. Barring injury, he's gonna break the record.. 

[zerofox]

Let's say he ends up with 715 goals by end of this season (which is 17 more goals in nearly 28 games remaining, a .60 goals/game average).

Next five seasons:

-50
-40
-35
-30
-25

That assumes some decline due to age and still puts him at 895.

To note, Selanne was scoring 40+ goals a season around age 35-36 or so. Closer to age 40 he was still at a 30+ goal a season pace (fell short at times due to injury). Ovechkin is a superior goal scorer to Selanne, so I think the numbers above are quite conservative. I think after 4 seasons if he hasn't beaten the record, he'll be dangerously close to it. Close enough to say "fuck it I put off retirement one more season just to get this record."

[zerofox]

And following up on my prior post, no one knows how many more seasons Ovie will play, or how many goals he'll score per season.

Here's a quick little table I made showing how many goals he might need to score after this season to beat Wayne, and how many seasons he'll need to play depending on his scoring rate. If he scores at a .55 goals/game rate or better, he can do it in 4 seasons (will be 38 in his final season). But if he plays 5 full seasons, his goals/game rate can be as low as .45 and he can still beat the record.


Simply put, he's got a really good chance

[alta]

Uh, Ovie's current contract was NOT front end loaded.  His annual salary was $9 million for its first 6 years, $10 million for the last 7.  Regardless, it is true that he has made a mint during his time here, and I think the entire organization would say that he has been well worth it.

13 years ago, $9M a year was a shitload. The fact that it remained at $10M for so long would indeed count as front end loaded. Especially when goalies are now making that, and not earning it. That and inflation is a real thing.


a better way to put it is, what is a bigger hit against the salary cap? $9M 13 years ago? Or $10M today??

[Rey Capalpatine]

My money says he signs 1 year deals (after this next contract) until he breaks the record. Barring injury, he's gonna break the record.. 

That be alright in my book.  Even if he comes in second you could still make the argument that he is the greatest scorer of all time.

[DC_1908]

Let's say he ends up with 715 goals by end of this season (which is 17 more goals in nearly 28 games remaining, a .60 goals/game average).

Next five seasons:

-50
-40
-35
-30
-25

That assumes some decline due to age and still puts him at 895.

To note, Selanne was scoring 40+ goals a season around age 35-36 or so. Closer to age 40 he was still at a 30+ goal a season pace (fell short at times due to injury). Ovechkin is a superior goal scorer to Selanne, so I think the numbers above are quite conservative. I think after 4 seasons if he hasn't beaten the record, he'll be dangerously close to it. Close enough to say "fuck it I put off retirement one more season just to get this record."

It can be done in 4, maybe 3, (at .6 GPG) but there will be a cost. 

The Caps will need to be, and will be in full out STAT PAD mode for the next 3-4 years until this the record is broke.

Cups, series, or wins will be put aside for this record. . . and even I wouldn’t blame them for it this point.


Ovie breaking Gretzky’s record in three years is not unrealistic.  Caps getting two or three Cups and Ovie breaking the record IS. 

[Ozzies09tc]

Ok.


This corona bullshit needs to eat a dick and die.


OV needs every extra game to hit 900+ goals

[richkrt99]

Ok.


This corona bullshit needs to eat a dick and die.


OV needs every extra game to hit 900+ goals

I heard Gretzky went to China and started this shit....

[Ozzies09tc]

I heard Gretzky went to China and started this shit....

Bettman told him to bc "no damn russian will be the best at 'our' sport"

[KollieOlizig]

Bettman told him to bc "no damn russian will be the best at 'our' sport"

     Do people here think Gretzky was the best?

[4 Caps]

I do, I don’t think there is much question about it. 

[Ozzies09tc]

I do, I don’t think there is much question about it.

I wish we coulda gotten to see more of Lemieux. He was a phenom.

[DC_1908]

     Do people here think Gretzky was the best?

Gordie

[alta]

I was at a game some years ago when this player got 7 points in one game, shortly after that he got an attitude and was a worthless addition to this team, damn shame too, I’m sure he’s well respected outside of the DC area

[Ozzies09tc]

I was at a game some years ago when this player got 7 points in one game, shortly after that he got an attitude and was a worthless addition to this team, damn shame too, I’m sure he’s well respected outside of the DC area

Eric Lindros?
Daniel Alfreddson?
Jaromir Jagr?


All 3?