And now, folks, the storm is hitting .....
As tragic as the current Ukraine conflict is, the real concern now is that it is only the precursor to something much, much more catastrophic.
As someone who worked in the Federal Civil Service for 36 years I think I have some insight for when the public words and deeds of our national leadership amount to hyperbolic, apocalyptic hoohah, and when there is actual terror creeping into the mindset of our leadership. We are now entering one of those times.
The last time I saw terror in the psyches of national leadership was in September 2008, in the midst of our national economic crisis. Amidst all the political bluster of the time, we were treated to the scene of the much-maligned lazy Congress working night and day during the weekends trying to fashion an economic rescue package, and the Republican leadership literally begging Nancy Pelosi for Democrat votes on a package because a large segment of their House caucus was adamantly against a rescue. The reason: These people were terrified that if they didn't have an economic rescue package ready to go on Monday morning, by Tuesday there would BE no economy to rescue. I don't think most folks were aware of how close we came, or at least how close leadership thinks we came, to total economic collapse at that time.
We are now at another one of those times. The very subtle tell, in the last couple of days, has been the new emphasis placed on Vladimir Putin's mental state. I've heard comments in the last day or two that the highest priority for U.S. intelligence now is to ascertain as best we can Putin's state of mind. This in the middle of an actual conflict where intelligence on the actual state of conditions on the ground and how we can get reinforcing supplies to Ukraine would seem to be of utmost importance.
Why is that? It is because the West realizes that we don't really know the extent of Putin's desire to expand the Russian empire, and what lengths he will go to realize that ambition. The battle now is for a single country, with the majority of the rest of the World using sanctions as its weapon. The sanctions are obviously not going to deter Putin from pursuing his strategic goals that motivated the Ukraine invasion. But what if they work in other ways, turning Russia into a pariah State, its economy even more in shambles, its currency practically worthless, its people ever more downtrodden, its oligarchy restive as their opulent lifestyle is severely crimped? What if Putin wants to expand the empire more, but the empire he has, an economic basket case already, is reduced to nothing -- except his military, undergirded by his nuclear arsenal? What then?
The West is being VERY careful not to engage Russia directly in Ukraine, for fear of giving Putin the rationale he needs to strike back. For, how WOULD he strike back? The invasion of Ukraine was preceded by months of military preparation and staging against an outmanned, outgunned, on-its-own opponent, and the taking of the country still appears to be going nowhere near as smoothly as Russia might have hoped. How much preparation would it take for Russia to try to take over, say, Estonia/Latvia/Lithuania conventionally in the face of U.S./NATO forces committed to its defense, and with the geographic capability to surround one's opponent nothing like what it has been with Ukraine? Looks like an impossible task.
So how would Putin try to accomplish such aims, if he has them? We've heard in the past several days a lot of comments from Putin and his few allies about their nuclear capabilities. Obviously, thinking of empire expansion by means of nuclear conflict is irrational. But what if Putin IS irrational?
We've heard a lot in recent days about the West not expanding its own nuclear weapons alert status in response to Russia's upgrade in nuclear readiness. Is that because Russia is truly no threat to use its nuclear arsenal? Is it because, even in non-upgraded status, we can still respond effectively to Russia in upgraded readiness? Or is it because we don't really know what Putin's mental status and current military thinking and planning is, and we don't want to "poke the bear" and send him off the deep end?
Believe me, folks, we are dangerously close to the possibility of a sudden conflict that would incinerate large parts of the globe. And much of the World's leadership realizes this possibility and is desperately trying to figure out the best way to avoid it, without a true understanding of the thinking of the man who holds the key to whether or not it happens. There is developing panic. Leaders and the media will try not to show it, and will address it only tangentially, and in heavily coded speech. But it is there.
