2021 Trade Deadline and Roster Moves

[alta]

I'd be shocked if they left ANY of the big contract guys exposed. They may need to move one, but just letting them go for free to expansion probably isn't the way they'll go about it. Probably trade and try and get pics or players back.

right now they've got enough guys in the system to not need any new personnel, they are also very cheap

[richkrt99]

Okay so their mock expansion draft protected list pretty much is same as mine except:


I protected Eller and they chose Panik.  I'm okay with that only based on Panik's play this year, but I still think Eller would be harder to replace than Panik for the Caps (we have more 3/4 wingers than centers) so I'm protecting Eller (and he needs protecting)   


and


They protected SHultz where I protected Orlov.  I'd be fine to lose Orlov (for salary) but he has a NMC so how can he be left exposed?  According to the rules any player with a NMC has to e protected.  Orlov's contract has a NMC for its entire duration.  He would have to waive that NMC to be left exposed so I don't think that's reality to leave him exposed.


The caps could move Orlov after the season if it's just a salary Dump - and possible get something in return whereas the draft....you get nothing.

[Beaglefan2]

So any thoughts about Vrana being scratched for last two games?  I wouldn't think that he would be up for trade, however, it is clear that management has not been thrilled with something about him as two different coaches have now benched him. 

[alta]

So any thoughts about Vrana being scratched for last two games?  I wouldn't think that he would be up for trade, however, it is clear that management has not been thrilled with something about him as two different coaches have now benched him.

I wouldn't have thought he was a candidate for trade a few days ago simply because it doesn't move enough salary. But I think he's definitely a candidate now. The problem is he still won't create enough room for the Caps to get the only thing the really need, another good center. The Caps have great depth at D, and there is a contract I'd move just because of the salary cap problems.

[richkrt99]

Vrana is 3.35m Cap hit, but his contract expires end of this season.  SO...If you are not enthralled with him, AND you don't plan to resign him, and you want something for him, then I could see them trading him.


He's been pretty one-dimensional.  I didn't like him when he first arrived, then he seemed to pick up his game and I liked him a bit more and appeared to have the ability to be a 30g guy, and now he has digressed a bit.  I watch him and he seems more lost without the puck than he should at this point in his career.  When he has the puck he can be pretty dynamic and his got killer jump and speed, but just doesn't do much otherwise.  He seems timid without the puck.  He's not good on the PP IMO either because he is too stagnant like he's waiting for something.  You have to be able to create/find your own spaces and earn the puck....not just stand around and wait for someone to give it to you so you can burn them with speed.  I don't think he's lazy, just not very motivated to do other things away from the puck very well.

[Mickstix]

I think he's just in the dog house at the moment. If he comes back and coach doesn't see what he needs, I suppose they could try and trade or leave him open for the expansion. I don't think benching a player does much for their trade value though. If they really were considering it, they'd just keep playing him and try and make a move as soon as possible, imo.


Sheary brings much of the same "stuff" Vrana does. And as a UFA they could probably sign him for half what they're paying Vrana. But if they want Sheary back, somebody (possibly Vrana) gotta go! Same with Ovie.. Apparently he aint gonna settle for the same thing he's making now. Somebody (else) gotta go..


Caps are in that salary cap pickle jar and aint getting out anytime soon.

[richkrt99]

I think he's just in the dog house at the moment. If he comes back and coach doesn't see what he needs, I suppose they could try and trade or leave him open for the expansion. I don't think benching a player does much for their trade value though. If they really were considering it, they'd just keep playing him and try and make a move as soon as possible, imo.


Sheary brings much of the same "stuff" Vrana does. And as a UFA they could probably sign him for half what they're paying Vrana. But if they want Sheary back, somebody (possibly Vrana) gotta go! Same with Ovie.. Apparently he aint gonna settle for the same thing he's making now. Somebody (else) gotta go..


Caps are in that salary cap pickle jar and aint getting out anytime soon.

I thought the same about leaving him available, but IF he is not under contract, then I doubt he would be selected (or even can he be?)  I don't know if he counts as unprotected if he is an RFA not under contract?


And you are right about the pickle, but we've been in this jar for years and next year it only get's worse.


Ovie could really F it up if he isn't somewhat team friendly in negotiations.  I'm sure both he and ownership want him to return, but at what cost?  I'm sure they will pay it for all the wrong and some of the right reasons, but if Ovi decides to force the issue he could handicap any chance of real success moving forward.  The team is already in decline, and we have some young talent and currently a glut of D, but let's face it, the stars of this team are all in declining years...including Carlson.  Willy is about the only one still in his prime or improving.  I guess you could say Kuzy is still in his prime, but he is so.....Kuzy.  They need to have room to acquire some talent elsewhere.  It's bad now, but it's going to get worse next year and worse yet with Ovi's new deal.  And what the hell they going to do when they actually have to pay a goalie a real contract salary?  Vitek and Sammy combined make only $1.54m and Sammy's contract is up this year and he is an RFA.
If they sign Ovie to a bigger $$ then they will HAVE to offload someone with SERIOUS $$$ salary.  THat's either Kuzy or Carlson or Oshie or Orlov.  (No way am I even putting Tom in that list)
But guess what....every name I mentioned has a no trade clause of some kind, so that does not make it impossible, but at least more difficult.


Orlov's is the easiest with a 5 team  NO TRADE list
Oshie's has 10 team NO TRADE list
Kuzy and Carlson have 15 team NO TRADE list.


Honestly I think Orlov or Carlson would be the easiest to move as teams always need D.  I doubt very much the Caps would consider moving Carlson though.  Oshie is a great competitor, but he's old...so not sure how much you'd get in return (unless you are purely just dumping salary)  Kuzy would probably be relatively easy to move depending on how he plays out the year (and what he does in the off season) but Caps are already short on C already so....


And IF they move Orlov....that's not enough to get them out of trouble.  Ovie's new deal will more than fill up for what Orlov (and his replacement) save.


We are heavy on D this year, but Groot is gone after the season (unless he will play for peanuts again) and we don't have a lot of D in Hershey with any experience.  Kempney will be back, but in what condition?  And what will Jenson be like without big Z?  Ziggy is about our only young D talent with any real experience.  I'd be fine with moving Orlov and letting Ziggy and Fever both play full time.  (or give Alexeyev, or Geisser a real shot)




Or dump Kuzy and bring up McMichael to be 2C. 


Side note:  Caps still show Liam O'brien as "in the system" on the website but he signed a AHL deal with Colorado this summer and actually is now on the NHL club.  WTF caps....dude hasn't been on your team this year and you still show him as one of your prospects?

[richkrt99]

Oh and Shulz is $4m cap hit this year but a $5m cap hit next year.


Move Orlov and Shultz and save $10m.  I'm okay with losing either or both for $5m a pop.  Then Let Ziggy play.  Kempney will be back and if he's a wash play Fever.

[Mickstix]

Yea, when the time comes, I hope they move D to free up the $.. But if they move a forward, I hope it's Kuzy other then Oshie.. Oshie still has a couple good years in him! Injury is really my only concern about Oshie.

[Beaglefan2]

The Oshie and Backstrom contracts will start to really hurt next year.  I think what we may not appreciate much is how hard it is going to be to move players with bigger contracts.  The revenue loss of the pandemic will make it much harder to make trades and Caps management has never traded "their guys" - the core of the team.


In order to not get stuck in a five year decline and rebuild, here are four aggressive moves:


1) Play hardball with Ovi.  How many teams are going to be able to pay Ovi $10 million plus on a multi-year deal? The teams that could afford him won't be contenders and is Ovi really going to leave for a couple million more to go to Buffalo, Detroit,...?  I'm not saying to low-ball him, but if he wants a three year deal or more, we aren't in a position to write a blank check if we want be a playoff team, much less contend for the Cup.


2) Trade Carlson.  I actually think we have some good depth with Ziggy and Fever.  Some team might be stupid enough to give us a couple of high draft picks.  Remember, he is a Norris candidate!


3) Leave Oshie and Backstrom exposed in the expansion draft.  I love them both, but their contracts hurt and one or both will be in significant decline over the next several years. Plus it helps us retain other younger/cheaper guys.


4) Trade Kuzy - I think there are plenty of teams that think Kuzy could be a superstar and we could get back a great return.  I used to think Kuzy was a never-trade guy, but he just keeps cruising through game after game and I suspect the other players in the lockerroom are tired of his act.

[alta]

Hopefully OV is happy with $10M, he's about at that point where he makes as much or more from endorsements anyway, plus, if he's been smart, his great grandkids can live very comfortably.


Some of these guys have to know what's coming with the salary cap being frozen


also, if they are going to dump Vrana and Kuzy they gotta keep Backy, if he stays at his current salary, and Oshie. Otherwise I think it's too much turnover at one time. The Caps only have so much talent ready to move up.

[richkrt99]

I'm okay/agree with all four things Beaglefan offered.  Hate to see these guys go, but


I would HOPE Ovi is reasonable in his contract negotiations.  Yes he is a superstar without equal.  The best goal scorer in.....who knows...ever maybe.  Yes he is the face of the franchise and one of the biggest superstars of the NHL.  But....what can you really afford to pay him and he should realize that, and IF he cares about leading and winning with this team and not just the money and the goal record, then he should man up and be reasonable.


The reality of the current market is what it is.  I think Beaglefan is right in that only a handful of teams could really afford him.


Looking at 2020 projected cap situation: (based on all roster players at beginning of season)


Detroit has $8.77m cap space
LA Kings has $8.45m
Devils 8.35m
Ottowa has $7.57m
NY Rangers has $3.92m


Everyone else has 3m or less and some teams are way over.  Tampa is 17m over.  (17.7m on LTIR)


I looked up current cap space and its way deceiving.  It shows Chicago with 14m, but they have 20m+ in LTIR players.
Pittsburgh shows 8m currently, but again ...Malkin's LTIR saves 9.5m.
Detroit has 10m in current cap space, but also 10m on LTIR


Looks like the Devils actually have the best CURRENT cap situation with 9.9m space and 0 on LTIR.  (and they pay PK Subban 9m a year - ouch)
Kings with 9.7 and about 4.7 on LTIR
Ottawa with 9.1 space, but 13+ on LTIR




It's all speculation at this point and certainly much will change in the offseason, but with the revenue streams and cap situation of the NHL being suspect for years to come....who could really afford to pay an aging superstar bookoo bucks?


All things being considered....$10m a year should be a fair number for Ovie.  What team could pay him $50m over the next 5 seasons?


The question is ...how much pride is involved with being top paid guy?  Currently Ovi is 15th highest paid in the league at 9.52m.  If you jump him to 11 that ties him at #5.  11.7 gets him second place to McDavid's 12.5m


Problem is all those contracts were made in better days.  Teams can't afford stupid money as well as they could only 3 years ago.


Ovi is more valuable to the Caps for marketing reasons than he would to some other teams, but Caps are so cap strapped, paying Ovie top NHL pay would handicap the ability to pay enough talent to have a truly competitive team.  I hope Ovi sees that (and actually cares)


We shall see.


I am a little surprised the Caps signed Backy for the amount and length of contract they actually did, but 5 years isn't totally horrible.

[alta]

Lavi has got to let Seigs and Van Riemsdyk get some ice time. I think Seigs can fill in well enough that the Caps won't miss Carlsons contract.

[richkrt99]

Lavi has got to let Seigs and Van Riemsdyk get some ice time. I think Seigs can fill in well enough that the Caps won't miss Carlsons contract.

I think Seigs should be playing now.  Bet he would be if Groot hadn't fell in our lap.  Ziggy not playing is hurting his long term development.  He could be a future top 4 D guy (or not), but letting him watch isn't helping his or the Caps' future.


I will eat my hat if the Caps trade Carlson.  I don't disagree with trading him based on our cap situation, current D structure, etc, but I'll be flat out shocked if that happens.  He DOES have the most trade value.
Another option is you trade Shulz AND Orlov (which saves save 10+ million next year), but then you are dependent on 2 guys who did not play at all this year as full time guys (TVR and Ziggy) AND Kempney being viable for top 4 time.  And I'm not sure how much you get in return for Shulz.  He's been solid enough and no injuries so who knows. And a lot more adjusting going on there.


If Ovie wants a pay raise....  a lot of changes are going to have to happen movement wise.

[Beaglefan2]

After this year, if the Caps have Ovi, Backstrom, Carlson and Oshie on the same team, they are not going anywhere.  Too much salary on those four guys that are aging and have already won their Cup. I think it is unlikely that the Caps management is aggressive enough to shake up this team and we will have a two to four year period of decline.  It happens to all teams eventually, so its our turn. Thankfully, we did win the Cup!

[Surreylily]

The Oshie and Backstrom contracts will start to really hurt next year.  I think what we may not appreciate much is how hard it is going to be to move players with bigger contracts.  The revenue loss of the pandemic will make it much harder to make trades and Caps management has never traded "their guys" - the core of the team.


In order to not get stuck in a five year decline and rebuild, here are four aggressive moves:


1) Play hardball with Ovi.  How many teams are going to be able to pay Ovi $10 million plus on a multi-year deal? The teams that could afford him won't be contenders and is Ovi really going to leave for a couple million more to go to Buffalo, Detroit,...?  I'm not saying to low-ball him, but if he wants a three year deal or more, we aren't in a position to write a blank check if we want be a playoff team, much less contend for the Cup.


2) Trade Carlson.  I actually think we have some good depth with Ziggy and Fever.  Some team might be stupid enough to give us a couple of high draft picks.  Remember, he is a Norris candidate!


3) Leave Oshie and Backstrom exposed in the expansion draft.  I love them both, but their contracts hurt and one or both will be in significant decline over the next several years. Plus it helps us retain other younger/cheaper guys.


4) Trade Kuzy - I think there are plenty of teams that think Kuzy could be a superstar and we could get back a great return.  I used to think Kuzy was a never-trade guy, but he just keeps cruising through game after game and I suspect the other players in the lockerroom are tired of his act.

I'll eat my onesie if Carlson or Nicky get traded. Just not gonna happen..
I would hate to see Oshie go, but that is far more feasble, imho.  I really hope not, but it's the lesser of the greater evils in my book.  There are others we could and SHOULD offload first.
Kuzy is top of the list for me.  Has been for a while now.  Too much of the Semins about him for my liking.   All the talent on the planet, just can't get that rocket up his jacksy every game.   Hugely talented.  Hugely lazy.  Been riiding on Ovi's coattails for far too long, imho
I'll also agree with Jake the Snake.  Pretty one dimensonal.

[Surreylily]

Who would I keep/ leave?

Well the core...... is just the core.  Ovi, Nicky Dylan.   They ARE what's left of the core.  They are not going anywhere  Unles Carlson actuay asks for a transfer.. 

Pretty much everyne is up for grabs.
II hope we keep Oshie. and Eller.
I would not cry too much if ether of our goulies went in the expansiion.  Wev'e always been pretty good t goalies....

[Mickstix]

They definitely need to find (start looking for) a new Ovie, Nicky, Oshie. Thought Vrana may pan out but he's none of that. McMichael is a possibility at C, but "scoring" wingers who are physical and can protect the puck and play 200', Im not seeing anyone even in the realm unfortunately.. It's gonna be unfun here in a couple years..    Not really worried about the D, I think they'll be ok there. Goalies, they'll be ok there too, I think.


Thing about Vrana is, he has decent size, can fly, great shot, etc. but just doesn't have any/much tenacity. If some of Oshie could rub off on him, that'd be awesome.


NOTE: Panik has been put on waivers..

[richkrt99]

Panik on Waivers?  I guess this is just to clear cap space, but for what reason?  Clearing cap space would lend toward bringing someone in, not shipping someone out.

[alta]

It gives the team less than $2M in cap space. If they are going to bring someone else in they are going to need more room




https://novacapsfans.com/2021/04/07/capitals-place-richard-panik-on-waivers/