Let's look at the goalie situation from the other direction for a moment, focusing on Samsanov instead of Holtby.
The team has a decision to make in goal in the next 5 months, after which Holtby becomes a UFA, and the team can't keep both goalies for the next year if they can only protect one in next year's expansion draft. With the way things are trending, the ONLY way that the franchise could justify going with Holtby rather than Samsanov is if Holtby pulls another 2018 out of his hat, and even then, how does the team hang its hat on what is now three years of pedestrian-at-best regular season performance? And of course, none of this discussion even considers the Salary Cap situation the franchise is in. Plus, with what Samsanov has done this year he HAS to get the chance to carry the load soon, somewhere. So let's look at how the team should be handling Samsanov.
Some significant issue has been made of the fact that Samsanov has never played more than 37 games in a season, and can he bear up under a heavier load? But he is turning 23 in less than a month -- he isn't (age-wise) a babe in the woods any more. At some point he's going to need to ramp up his activity so the team can bring him towards the point where he is prepared to play 75 games a season (2/3 of the regular season schedule plus a deep Cup run). It would seem to me, if ramping up is a legitimate strategy for goalie development, that he ought to play at least 50 games this year if he is going to take over the starting goalie duties next season. And we have to get as much information as we can about him soon -- in 7 years HE'LL be 30, and maybe we'd be having the same concerns and discussion about him as we're having about Holtby today.
The Caps have 31 games left in the regular season. Samsonov has 19 appearances so far this season, with 16 starts. Maybe the equivalent of 18 games. If he starts half of the remaining games he would have 33 - 34 games. Then IF he were to be named the starting goalie for the playoffs and IF he didn't pull a Grubauer and get yanked early on, he might play 20+ games in the playoffs if the Caps could make a deep run. In other words, half of the remaining regular season + a full playoffs would put him at or a little above what one might want in an "ideal ramping up" scenario. BUT, if the Caps turn to Holtby for the playoffs and he stays in there for the duration, Samsanov won't get 40 games this year, which isn't a good situation for the team or him as the goalie decision has to be made.
In the back of my mind, I'm wondering if team management has already begun thinking about the possibility of using Samsanov as the playoff goalie, but wants to keep him fresh, not use him all that much against teams he might see in the playoffs, and target 50 games or a little more for him as the total workload for the entire season, with the team hoping for another deep Cup run this time around. IF the team is thinking that way (and I have no idea if what I am saying at all aligns with what the organization is thinking), then their plan might be to keep Holtby as the nominal starting goalie for another week or two, or the next 10 games or so, then switch to Samsanov unless Holtby has an instantaneous renaissance. That would get Samsanov to the low to mid 30's at most for the regular season, and allow him to absorb the potential workload as the main/only playoff goalie within an upper limit of, say, 55 games total.
Of course, if Samsanov pulls a Grubauer in the playoffs, or if the Caps go out in, say, round 1 or 2, then Samsanov won't get his 50 games, and the team will have to make its summer goalie decision with less info. Nothing they can do about that. But maybe they have an upper limit of games they want to see him get this season.
