Talk about Capitals hockey & more! > Washington Capitals & Other Hockey Discussion
Greatest Goal Scorer of All Time
zerofox:
At this point I'm praying Ovi hangs on and wins the Rocket. Draisaitl is close thanks to his 2 goals last night. He plays the Flames tomorrow who have clinched and may rest some players. Ovi on the other hand plays the Islanders who still have something to play for, and I'm guessing TR may rest some players tomorrow. There's a small chance, but a chance nonetheless, that Ovi doesn't score tomorrow and Draisaitl gets a hat trick. The Oilers have nothing to play for other than to get Draisaitl 50, and if he hits 50 I'm sure the guys will try to get him 1 more to tie Ovi for Rocket, and at that point they may try to get him the hat trick.
Kinda hoping that if Draisaitl gets 51 he decides to stay there and take the tie with Ovechkin rather than denying him his 8th Rocket. Seems like the respectful thing to do...
Either way, I'd want Ovi to get his 8th Rocket, whether he is alone or tied with someone. Just get him his 8th. And after that I'm happy to let some other players win the Rocket going forward, but to get this one would be big.
chas:
I took a stab at answering this a while back. I calculated the average goals for forwards and the standard deviation for the various years. That's not super scientific because it assumes a random distribution but... Ovechkin is something like 7 or so standard deviations above the average. Statistically that's crazy.
A lot of the calculation depends on how you determine who scores goals.
DC_1908:
--- Quote from: chas on Saturday April 06, 2019, 11:45:04 AM Eastern ---I took a stab at answering this a while back. I calculated the average goals for forwards and the standard deviation for the various years. That's not super scientific because it assumes a random distribution but... Ovechkin is something like 7 or so standard deviations above the average. Statistically that's crazy.
A lot of the calculation depends on how you determine who scores goals.
--- End quote ---
Yep, there are a shotloaf of factors to take into account for a side by side comparison. Like I said above, how do you accourtly factor in salary cap compared to rule changes? How do you account for Also, “stat-taient” has provided far more data, ie we can say “Ovie scored X percentage of goals from X area in X situation compared to Gretzky, but that data Gretzky data doesn’t exist.
Come to think of it, granted we’re at a bar for brunch and I’m four(ish) drinks in. An interesting comparison would be to compare the totals against the league at there time. IE what percentage of the total goals did they score, what was there rank in in comparative seasions, how many more did they have than the runner up?
IOW if a hypothetical player led the league in goals with 55. and the second had 36, third had 34, and a second hypothetical player had 70, but the second had 64 and third had 60, is second “better” for scoring 15 more in comparitive years? Heh enter standard divinations and formulas of the ilk I have somewhere, and otter programs I’m a bit to buzzed now to do on my phone at a bar!
Regardless, Jack Daniels is the best brunch!
Oh and great fuckin post btw!
zerofox:
Well congrats to Ovi for officially winning his 8th Rocket. 8 50 goal seasons and 8 Rockets for #8 has a nice ring to it, hopefully followed by 800 goals and of course some more Cups.
Oilers/Flames game last night was a bit of a nail biter since Draisaitl had been on fire down the stretch and hit 50 early on in the game. On game 32 of the season, Ovechkin had a 10 goal lead over Draisaitl. By the last game, that lead had fallen to 1. Pretty damn impressive if you ask me. I think if the season lasted a few more games Draisaitl might have had a shot at taking it.
I'm hoping Ovi can will his team to the Cup again, despite whatever TR does to screw things up.
richkrt99:
--- Quote from: DC_1908 on Saturday January 18, 2020, 03:43:24 PM Eastern ---Damn Ovies “on pace” for 61. . .
--- End quote ---
He won't get 60, but I'd love for him to hit 50+ again. I think he will.
Hell, if he gets 20 more this year for 54, that would put him at 712 he could nearly catch Jagr at 766 next year (with another 54G year)
I think Ovi will catch Gordie at 801 before he retires. He would only need about 90 more after this season. I think he can average 30 over the next three seasons if he stays healthy
But I don't see any realistic way for Ovi to catch Gretzky....at 894 by the way.
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