You really can't account for shit bounces (orlov) or subpar goaltending, but the 
faceoff deal is now becoming my #1 concern.. I don't know how many GA's or Non GF's they account for, but they account for some.. Mainly on the PP/PK and not wasting/giving 30+ seconds of extra zone time for each lost draw.. It'll definitely show up when we play better (ie: playoff) caliber teams. Seems like there should be some drills or something they could do/practice to get better at it, but Ive seen no improvement? And we suck at it.. 
A little late to the party, aren't you? I've been harping on this all year (to the point that some have probably found it annoying), after it was obvious that the organization wasn't going to replace Beagle's skill set. They pretty much replaced his PK work with Hagelin, but they weren't able to address the face-off situation. When Beagle was here, it was SOP that he was out there for face-offs in the defensive zone during penalties and in tight situations at the end of games. This team has NO ONE it can really count on to be consistently competitive in the face-off circle at crucial times.
And it isn't just WINNING face-offs that is the issue. Even the best face-off men are generally between 55 and 60 percent successful, which means for every 3, 4 or 5 face-offs they win, they lose 2, 3, or 4. It isn't just winning face-offs, IT'S HOW YOU LOSE THE ONES YOU LOSE. Beagle was always a fighter on face-offs, which means that even if he eventually lost it and the opponent was able to work the puck back toward the blue line, usually the guys defending in the slot were able to work their way through the picks that are routinely set by the other team and get back in the face of the puck receiver, so that the face-off win was not a clear, immediate, and dangerous advantage. Watching a guy like Kuzy routinely lose face-offs clean, causing the Caps to scramble and often resulting in clear shots or dangerous setups for the opposition , makes one appreciate how valuable a guy like Beagle was to this team.
That being said, I can certainly understand the difficulty the Caps were in trying to resign Beagle (which I don't think they ever seriously tried to do) and that they probably DIDN'T want to sign him for anything like the $3 million AAV he eventually got as a 33 year old. It's very easy for a guy like Beagle, who never had great physical tools other than a great motor, to lose the critical step that changes him from a valuable mucker to a not-sufficiently-competitive player who hurts you too much other than in the face-off circle to be worth even a mid-size contract. The problem is, the organization never looked to replace that skill; and you are right, it could absolutely kill them this season.
And I think you're right, the greater relative difficulty that the Caps are having on the PP is, I think, mostly due, not to the way their setup play functions, but rather, to the loss of zone time they suffer from losing face-offs and having the opposition in position to clear the puck more often. And secondarily, they are hurt by ANOTHER skill that they never replaced. That was MJ's skill in re-entering the zone and initiating their setup scheme. It seems to me that the team is having to repeatedly chase the puck back in their own zone more this season on the PP after misfiring entries, which also reduces time to work their setup.
