GDT#24 Capitals @ Islanders 7:00 p.m. Mon Nov 26, 2018 NBCSWA+, SN, MSG+

[PUCKNRUSH]

I hate to even point this out, because it feels like some sort of a jinxing comment, but .....


the Caps haven't lost since Oshie and Kuznetsov left the lineup.  And they've been playing good, and hot, teams since then.


Puck, I think you're spot on mentioning Jaskin and Dowd.  The question is, are they the type of players who can tide you over for a short time but eventually get exposed if they play too much, or are they guys who can contribute longer-term?  We'll see.

That’s really IS the question, Black!
I think it’s one of those questions, that all the analysis of analytics, and all the eye tests, can’t really answer!
We are left only to throw our palms up, and say the wiser phrase that “only time will tell”!
I will say that I’m pleasantly encouraged at the hunger level, some of these potential “temps”, are playing at recently! Coach Rierden, and staff, are worthy of some early praise, to be sure!


One thing Rierden has been saying, repeatedly, since the beginning of the season, is his heavy emphasis on who is taking advantage of the opportunities given to them, and who is NOT!


Even though he had most of the roster return, he has had more than his share of decisions to make about who plays, and seems to be adhering pretty closely to what he’s been preaching!
Opportunities abound!
We shall see!


Rush

[Mickstix]

And then there is one outlier among the "losers" who has gone virtually unmentioned on this site this season, after having had a decent amount of good things said about him here last year.  That outlier is Chandler Stephenson. 

No doubt! Have thought that a few times this year.. But he's not really done anything bad/wrong to be called out for (enough to notice) so, as you say, he's just been kinda invisible. Hopefully he get some shine here soon.

[PUCKNRUSH]

Over the years there has been a lot of back and forth about the meaning, or lack thereof, of +/- stats.


I find it interesting that the +/- "losers" for the Caps at this point are precisely the players that are being criticized most frequently on this site -- Orlov, Niskanen, Eller, and Burakovsky.


And then there is one outlier among the "losers" who has gone virtually unmentioned on this site this season, after having had a decent amount of good things said about him here last year.  That outlier is Chandler Stephenson.  I think he's been unmentioned because he has basically been invisible; done virtually nothing of note after having drawn some attention to himself last year.  I wonder what's up with him?  Soph slump maybe?  It happens to some players.

I agree about Stephenson. I liked him last year. Still have hope for the guy, BUT...
It really has been a kind of “crickets” thing with him, so far this year!
Being small on the radar this season, so far, is not exactly a positive thing, for him!
He brought a lot of spotlight to himself, with his good play last year, but so far, nothing special right now! For now, I’ll keep it optimistic, and say he is overdue! But just like the last post, “time will tell”!


Since I was just looking at stats today, I did notice one positive for him. He is one, of only 5 skaters on the Caps, who have more takeaways than giveaways.
If memory serves me right, the others were DSP, Jaskin, Eller, and Dowd!
A few of our better “possesion” guys were about even, i.e. Backy, Kempny, Kuzy, etc.


+/-, really is tricky to use, at best!
IMO, it’s a somewhat OK indicator, but even with that, you really need a large sample size, to use as a stand alone stat. (I don’t even recommend as a stand alone stat).
It is a much better stat when put alongside other Corsi-type stats, for a more relative, overall picture!


One of the flaws in it, is that it’s accuracy is theoretically improved, if all the lines were determined, by game #1 of the season, and STAYED that way ALL YEAR!
The first 20-25 games are filled with line experimentation, then consider injuries, player scratches, individuals, on a roll, or in a slump, and you have one hell of a mess, for +/- accuracies!


Insightful post, Black.


Rush
 

[Maacoshark]

No doubt! Have thought that a few times this year.. But he's not really done anything bad/wrong to be called out for (enough to notice) so, as you say, he's just been kinda invisible. Hopefully he get some shine here soon.

      Stephenson hasn't played well this season. I think it would help if he had regular line mates and played his normal position. He has played on all 4 lines playing both LW and rw but has yet to play his original position which is center.
      The thing we do need to remember about Stephenson is that he is here because if his defensive play. I hope you can get things going.

[Maacoshark]

I agree about Stephenson. I liked him last year. Still have hope for the guy, BUT...
It really has been a kind of “crickets” thing with him, so far this year!
Being small on the radar this season, so far, is not exactly a positive thing, for him!
He brought a lot of spotlight to himself, with his good play last year, but so far, nothing special right now! For now, I’ll keep it optimistic, and say he is overdue! But just like the last post, “time will tell”!


Since I was just looking at stats today, I did notice one positive for him. He is one, of only 5 skaters on the Caps, who have more takeaways than giveaways.
If memory serves me right, the others were DSP, Jaskin, Eller, and Dowd!
A few of our better “possesion” guys were about even, i.e. Backy, Kempny, Kuzy, etc.


+/-, really is tricky to use, at best!
IMO, it’s a somewhat OK indicator, but even with that, you really need a large sample size, to use as a stand alone stat. (I don’t even recommend as a stand alone stat).
It is a much better stat when put alongside other Corsi-type stats, for a more relative, overall picture!


One of the flaws in it, is that it’s accuracy is theoretically improved, if all the lines were determined, by game #1 of the season, and STAYED that way ALL YEAR!
The first 20-25 games are filled with line experimentation, then consider injuries, player scratches, individuals, on a roll, or in a slump, and you have one hell of a mess, for +/- accuracies!


Insightful post, Black.


Rush

      You are right into your corsi stats. Worst stat in hockey and coaches and players will tell you that.

[DC_1908]

      You are right into your corsi stats. Worst stat in hockey and coaches and players will tell you that.

Actually Corsi is a great stat, . . .for goalies.   It was developed (in short), to help goalies identify high percentage shot scenarios and situations (again, in short).


However, the NHL has used it to jump on the "Saber Metric" bandwagon and twist it to sell as "Stat-tainment", making it a joke to everyone except goalies and their coaches.


This is a main reason why Corsi stats can't be used in contract negotiations. . . .

[richkrt99]

      Our dmen did play well. I think Bowey Carlson was our best dman tonight.

Someone hijacked Maaco's account again...


Fixed it for you 

[Maacoshark]

Actually Corsi is a great stat, . . .for goalies.   It was developed (in short), to help goalies identify high percentage shot scenarios and situations (again, in short).


However, the NHL has used it to jump on the "Saber Metric" bandwagon and twist it to sell as "Stat-tainment", making it a joke to everyone except goalies and their coaches.


This is a mainreason why Corsi stats can't be used in contract negotiations. . . .

    I would gave to agree with that assessment. I believe it was actually a goalie that developed it. The stat is completely misused. If it was accurate it would mean that Beagle may have been the worst player in the league the last couple of years. But we know that isn't the case.

[Maacoshark]

Someone hijacked Maaco's account again...


Fixed it for you 

     Ya thanks

[DC_1908]

    I would gave to agree with that assessment. I believe it was actually a goalie that developed it. The stat is completely misused. If it was accurate it would mean that Beagle may have been the worst player in the league the last couple of years. But we know that isn't the case.

Yep, i think it was goalie coach that developed it.   But Beagle is a great example: when the opposing goalie saw Beagle on the ice, the stat would tell him not to expect high shot volumes, completely disregarding that he is a primary defensive player that shouldn’t necessarily have high offensive zone percentage or shot volumes, so from that point of view, his Corsi shouldn’t be high.


But that doesn’t make for good stat-tainment

[Maacoshark]

Yep, i think it was goalie coach that developed it.   But Beagle is a great example: when the opposing goalie saw Beagle on the ice, the stat would tell him not to expect high shot volumes, completely disregarding that he is a primary defensive player that shouldn’t necessarily have high offensive zone percentage or shot volumes, so from that point of view, his Corsi shouldn’t be high.


But that doesn’t make for good stat-tainment

    Some people use Corsi as a defensive stat. Others as a possession stat. It isnt really either. Its not even about quality of scoring chances. Its all about quantity of shots.

[PUCKNRUSH]

      You are right into your corsi stats. Worst stat in hockey and coaches and players will tell you that.

Yes sir!
Way too much emphasis placed on the +/- stat! Simply too many variables affect the number, to be a valuable indicator.
You and I, Maaco, have both been fans of Stephenson! He is an excellent contrast to hold up against Burakovsky.
Both guys, currently, are not doing much to get noticed, which is made worse by a few of the guys who ARE drawing positive attention to themselves!


For me, the difference between Stephenson and Bura, is that Stephensons short negative history, still earns him some patience, and a reasonable expectation of hope that he will turn it around!
Unlike Bura, he hasn’t had the numerous, and disappointing, reset cycles that are on the verge of the definition for insanity!


I’m fairly willing to extend some grace period to Stephenson, as he, and the coaches, figure out his role, during this rather complicated assessment time, for the Caps, as they move through that critical 25 game mark, in the season.!
 I truly hope the best for him!


Rush

[PUCKNRUSH]

Yep, i think it was goalie coach that developed it.   But Beagle is a great example: when the opposing goalie saw Beagle on the ice, the stat would tell him not to expect high shot volumes, completely disregarding that he is a primary defensive player that shouldn’t necessarily have high offensive zone percentage or shot volumes, so from that point of view, his Corsi shouldn’t be high.


But that doesn’t make for good stat-tainment

Hey DC!
You’re correct. It was a goalie coach, I believe, for the Sabres. His last name was Corsi. (I don’t remember his first name)!


When I first joined the old board, and saw some of you veterans whipping out analytics, I went and got  a basic hockey analytics book!  It was extremely informative, but also had way too much analysis for my blood,  so I didn’t read the whole thing, just the parts that I found relative, and interestingly informative, for what I like about the game! I’m certainly NO EXPERT, on analytics, at all!


The original Corsi stat was for team analysis of puck possession! Using shots for, AND shots against, as an overall indicator for puck possession time! It includes shots on goal, (SOG), missed shots, and blocked shots, both FOR and AGAINST! The idea being that if your team had a higher total shots number, than your opponent, it was a good indicator that you had more puck possession time! Again, it was a team stat!


The now, more famous +/- Corsi stat, is for INDIVIDUAL players, and can be for Goals For/Goals Against, when THAT PLAYER is on the ice! You can also add in SOG, Bks, Ms, both for and against, when that player is on the ice, for another Corsi-type stat! These are all assumed at even strength, 5 on 5.


When you say, Corsi-type stat, it refers to the concept of almost any hockey stat, where the comparison is any measurable team statistic, relative to when that player is on the ice! You can even compare player to player, and for me, some can get to the point of absurd!


However, a good example would be, what is the teams S%, (shooting percentage), when, say, Orlov is on the ice? OR when Orlov is NOT on the ice!  OR the OPPONENTS S%, with Orlov, on or off the ice?


Another could be, comparing a teams giveaway/takeaway ratio, when a given player is on the ice, versus, off the ice!


The endless combinations can go on to infinity! ( that’s why I didn’t finish the book ), LOL.


Rush

[Maacoshark]

     Sorry Rush but the corsi stat is by far the worst stat in hockey. Its used as an individual stat even though it is actually a 5 on 5 stat. It isnt a possession stat. Not even close. In fact a good possession team might have a lower corsi because they would rather hang onto the puck than throw low percentage shots towards the net. A lot of coaches feel that throwing a low percentage shot toward the net is more often than not just a change in possession or a turnover. I agree with that. If there is nothing there then why throw a low percentage shot towards the net. Corsi just isnt an actual possession stat.
     In recent years a couple of the better corsi teams were Montreal and Carolina. But neither were very good teams. You may remember the Caps corsi was one of the worst. The stat is useless.
      The plus/minus stat can be deceiving as well but at least it is straight forward. I think one thing that might help the stat a bit is if empty net goals weren't included.

[Mickstix]

Uh oh! Gather round kids, I think we're getting ready to witness another episode of  "were on the same page, but lets argue anyway" 

[alta]

Uh oh! Gather round kids, I think we're getting ready to witness another episode of  "were on the same page, but lets argue anyway" 

there is a post about that elsewhere

[Mickstix]

there is a post about that elsewhere

 

[PUCKNRUSH]

Uh oh! Gather round kids, I think we're getting ready to witness another episode of  "were on the same page, but lets argue anyway" 

LMFAO, once again Mick!🤣😂
I'm so damn glad that someone else, other than myself, sees it!
At 60 years old, I was considering possibly the first signs of my dementia!LOL
Hell, I'll even admit to some dementia, from time to time..... just not in this case!! Bwahahaha!😂😂


Rush

[PUCKNRUSH]

     Sorry Rush but the corsi stat is by far the worst stat in hockey. Its used as an individual stat even though it is actually a 5 on 5 stat. It isnt a possession stat. Not even close. In fact a good possession team might have a lower corsi because they would rather hang onto the puck than throw low percentage shots towards the net. A lot of coaches feel that throwing a low percentage shot toward the net is more often than not just a change in possession or a turnover. I agree with that. If there is nothing there then why throw a low percentage shot towards the net. Corsi just isnt an actual possession stat.
     In recent years a couple of the better corsi teams were Montreal and Carolina. But neither were very good teams. You may remember the Caps corsi was one of the worst. The stat is useless.
      The plus/minus stat can be deceiving as well but at least it is straight forward. I think one thing that might help the stat a bit is if empty net goals weren't included.

Maaco, why would you start your post with "Sorry Rush, but"?
That usually implies, albeit in a tactful way, (thank you), the idea that, you disagree, first off, and that the following sentence would define the substance of your disagreement!  Uh....I'd like to ask one teency, tiny, little question.....
WHAT IS THE DISAGREEMENT YOU HAVE??  OR, said differently, WHERE'S THE FRICKIN' BEEF??
Corsi has sprouted into numerous hybrid forms, from its original TEAM statistic, and now has innumerable forms of use, by those into heavy analytics!
BUT.....


Rather than spell it out, let me cut right to the chase, ya know, using the "shorthand", you've requested!!
Kindly put your MONEY, where your YAP is, please!  I will, right now!


**B E T**
I've got $100, (US dollars), that says Corsi, from its very beginning, both WAS, and IS, used as a PUCK POSSESSION STAT!!!
In front of this whole board here, I ask, ARE YOU IN?


By taking on this bet, if you do, we agree that proof must be established that Corsi is a puck possession stat. Furthermore, the fact that Corsi can be used for other purposes, either for individual, or team purposes, does NOT disclude the fact that it IS a puck possession stat!


No BS type wiggle room, buddy, this time, please!


Rush

[alta]

Personally, I have never looked at CORSI. In my observations it appears people in the hockey world want it to work like numbers do for baseball. Thats just not possible. Hockey is to fluid for that to work.