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BlackIce:
The heck with this political stuff. Back to hockey.
The Caps have to deal with Trotz. That's relatively straightforward. They either give him what he deserves money-wise and organization-wise and keep him, or they don't, and lose him. I suspect this is going to shake out one way or the other relatively soon so they can deal with Reirden in a fair way.
The player situation, well, that's more complicated. Carlson, Wilson, Beagle, Smith-Pelly, Kempny, Grubauer. They have to be dealt with one way or the other, and there simply isn't enough money to keep them all.
Carlson is the big fish, of course, and a lot of people around here complain about him. I'm presuming those people may understand that it would be good having him back, but not at $8 million AAV for the next 7+ years, which is probably what it is going to take to sign him. The problem with letting him go is that there is no other player that could reasonably be thought to be available that can replace what he brings to the table. Are the people who don't like Carlson willing to put up with the relatively greater shortcomings of the playerwho would take his minutes and his roles next season and beyond? Because you WILL have to put up with some of it if Carlson is no longer on the team.
I figure Wilson is a given to be resigned because of his RFA status, because he is considered so invaluable due to his role and style of play, and because he probably won't cost much more than half of what Carlson will to be resigned. But there is probably upwards of $4 million at least next season, and maybe a bit more if the Caps want to sign him longer-term.
There just isn't enough cap room to sign those two for what it will take and deal with the others. I don't think Beagle and Smith-Pelly can both be signed, so pick who you want. Kempny's situation is a matter of how much he is worth to others after having a kind of breakout mini-season with the Caps. And there may be a comparable defenseman to HIM that you can pick up over the summer. Grubauer I think is gone, because the team wants to do right by him and give him a chance to be a starting goaltender. So Copley will back up in net at least the first part of next season, and the Caps can always pick up a relatively low-cost journeyman if he doesn't work out. Then the team makeup will depend on what the Caps get for Grubauer, or MAYBE Grubauer and Burakovsky, who is my pick for someone to be dealt to help make Carlson/Wilson/Smith-Pelly work under the cap.
zerofox:
Carlson - I would hope that we could get Carlson for $6-7 million because I think that would be a relative "steal" but I think you're right in that he'll probably go for $7-8 million. I'm more for keeping him because of the huge hole he'd leave in our roster if he were gone, and not necessarily because I think he's the best thing since sliced bread. For the record I think he's a very good Dman, but probably a tier below the top tier elite Dmen of the league (the Karlsson's and Doughty's, etc).
Wilson - Keep. He's really come along as a top line RW. I had my doubts about him previously but he's really developed. I actually feel comfortable with him on the wing opposite of Ovechkin. And having a solid RW on that top line with Ovie means one HUGE thing for the rest of our depth - Oshie can play on the 2nd line with Vrana and Backy, and Connolly and Burky can play with Eller. Without Wilson occupying that 1RW spot, people move up to spots they don't belong (i.e. Conno to 2RW because Oshie is bumped up, or Conno to 1RW to replace Wilson, or top line DSP).
Beagle - Keep. I still think he's that heart and soul workhorse type of guy who needs to be kept.
Kempny - Keep. He really helped provide some stability to our defensive depth. If we keep Carlson and Kempny, I will be very confident in our defensive group. Carlson, Niskanen, Orlov, Kempny, Djoos, and Orpik I feel like is a group I can really trust. Honestly if Orpik is your 6th man, I'm fine with that. Although in a perfect world, dumping Orpik's salary and getting a cheaper alternative for a 6th Dman would be better in terms of freeing up cap space
DSP - Yeah he came through in the clutch during the playoffs, which I am forever thankful for. But if cap space becomes tight, he's probably among the lowest on my priority list.
Grubauer - Funny how during the season I was wondering if it made financial sense to trade Holtby and stick with Gruby as a starter, simply to free up cap space. I'm now back on Team Holtby but believe that as much as I like Gruby, he deserves a starting role elsewhere.
DC_1908:
I say let Carslon go. His cost is inflated by his stats made from his fourth forward position. Sure he had a decent playoff, but not worth 7mil.
Keeping Kempny, and going for DeHaan or Cole, or a higher value option.
This is gonna be a interesting test for the Caps front office: do they start operating like Champions, or go back to just being OK with being a regular season team that has a chance in the playoffs
KitFisto:
Carlson is going to get 8+ somewhere. There are only a small handful of guys that can do what he does and whIle this board may not admit his defense improved as well. There is zero chance we get him to take 6-7 million IMO. I think the best discount you might get is 7.5 so I don't expect him back.
DSP will probably go. Someone will overpay him due to the playoffs. Thanks for the playoff heroics, but he was also a healthy scratch at times during the season and he's replaceable on the 4th line. You can't keep him and hope he repeats the playoff performance every year. Now if he wants to take a small raise and stay then by all ears he's welcome to.
Kempny was an amazing trade and I was asking "who"? when we got him. Need to keep him. He's a really steady guy once he settled in.
Gruby is trade bait at this point and everyone knows it.
Wilson isn't going anywhere.
Beagle I'd keep as long as someone else doesn't force a bidding war. Love the guys hard work and faceoffs. Hopefully he just wants to finish his career here.
justwincaps:
I'm not a fan of keeping Carlson at anything north of $7 million which he will get from someone, so I'm OK with him going. I don't think he is a strong defenseman and I think most, not necessarily all, of what he does offensively is attributable to his time on the top PP unit and can be replaced. I can see Nisaknen running the PP next year if Carlson goes. And since I didn't think his defense was all that impressive, I'm hoping either someone from Hershey develops [Bowey, Johansen are you listening?] or you use the money saved to go get a 2nd pairing defenseman to paur with Kempny. The question is whether GMBM has the balls to let him walk.
Keeping Wilson and trading Grubauer are no brainers.
Would love to keep Beagle. What he brings off the ice is as important as on the ice and hopefully we can strike a deal that keeps him here. Then again, I wanted to keep Hendricks, who didn't bring as much as Beagle does [aside from physicality] so some of this is sentiment.
Kempny grew on me, and most others, the longer he was here and he would be a nice 2nd line pairing for an offensive guy.
DSP was playoff $$ and with his restricted rights we might be able to keep him in the fold.
As others have noted, Carlson's payday can't be at the expense of the contracts we have coming up in the next two years.
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