Talk about Capitals hockey & more! > Washington Capitals & Other Hockey Discussion
Round 4 Schedule (that's not a typo)
BlackIce:
--- Quote from: KitFisto on Thursday May 24, 2018, 09:25:14 AM Eastern ---Caps have no chance.
--- End quote ---
I know you are being facetious and superstitious here, but I just heard a blog from Alan May commenting on the key things the Caps need to do in the upcoming series. I think he might have made a slip-up at the end of his commentary that indicates his true assessment of the Caps/Vegas series. After discussing the keys to victory (defensive coverage/PK/PP) he concluded by making a comment very much like this: "If the Caps can accomplish these key things, they may have a chance to beat the Golden Knights."
Note he didn't say that if the Caps do these things they will be "tough to beat," "in good shape," or any reasonably positive assessment. He sees them, if they do what he says, "having a chance." He sounded as if Vegas is what I have said to others that they are: Not a Cinderella by any means, but simply as good as any team in the NHL this year, and a solid to prohibitive favorite to take the Stanley Cup.
Beyond the Caps/McPhee connection, I think this series is fascinating for another reason. The Caps aren't just representing themselves in this series, they are representing the entire other-30-team NHL establishment against the most Johnny-come-lately upstart possible. I am wondering if the NHL isn't secretly hoping that the Caps win this series to avoid the embarrassment of a first-team franchise winning the Stanley Cup.
Why do I term it an embarrassment? Not because of the oft-discussed argument that the expansion draft rules were too favorable to Vegas and they got too good a set of players; but rather, because this set of players, however good they are as a group, jelled into a powerhouse INSTANTLY. This team wasn't just an unimaginably good first-year team; they were unimaginably good from the first WEEK of the season. They came out of the gate like a house afire and never looked back. In NHL thinking, this simply shouldn't happen, because the NHL is a team game where chemistry and team development matters, and any franchise needs to go through tough times to learn how to succeed. A franchise needs to build chemistry and the know-how to do both the obvious and the subtle things to survive both an interminable regular season and the rigors of the Stanley Cup playoffs, which the NHL likes to market as the toughest championship to win in all of sports.
Caps fans have bought into this; fans are talking about "it's our time," as though it's taken the franchise all this time without a championship to finally "get it right". But heck, Vegas pulled players literally from all over the continent, and in the space of a training camp had all the chemistry and know-how they needed to take this league by storm. Their success blows the whole "This league is tough to succeed in and you need to develop the capability to win over time" paradigm out of the water. Their success suggests that gradual growth and development of a franchise ISN'T necessarily the model; get some kind of formula right and you can literally run roughshod over the league starting next week.
The Caps not only represent themselves in this series; they represent the traditional NHL marketing storyline that success isn't easy, that you need to work hard and figure out how to win over time, and eventually your time may come. DC's been talking about this recently, rationalizing the Caps' playoff success this year after he had badmouthed the organization and its players for years. He's been saying that it has happened because the players changed, and finally bought into the argument that you need to knuckle down and find an extra playoff gear if you are going to succeed in the playoffs, a lesson, according to him, that had never sunk in before. The NHL would love him for evangelizing their party line. And maybe the NHL is hoping for a Caps victory to legitimize that party line as well. Because if Vegas wins, that entire marketing story line, the basis of the sport's argument for the greatness of its competition, goes down the tubes. What would they use as a replacement? That the league is easy enough that a new team can be pulled out of thin air and could blast the entire league out of the water?
It seems to me that this is a watershed moment for the NHL. If Vegas wins, they can market it as the greatest out-of-the-blue accomplishment in the history of professional sports, which I think is demonstrably true. But it bursts the balloon on the decades-old glamorization of their sport.
ArJunaZ:
In this Washington Post article they crunched the numbers based on metrics created by the well known hockey metrics website Corsica the Capitals have a 61% chance to win the Stanley Cup. Add to that the total balls to the wall (sorry ladies) commitment by our boys and I say we have a chance for sure. I feel good about it. I've kind of sensed this would be the final round matchup for quite some time. I also sensed that we will match up well with Vegas.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/05/24/capitals-should-be-favored-over-the-golden-knights-for-stanley-cup-finals/?utm_term=.afa006cbde07
Here is a graphic of the computer generated models being run over and over and the odds it came up with.
KitFisto:
--- Quote from: KitFistosBrotherInLaw on Thursday May 24, 2018, 09:37:38 PM Eastern ---
How would you know? Last time Caps played for Stanley Cup you were not even around yet.
--- End quote ---
Well, since I'm 45 now and I attended game 3 vs the Wings I'd say you're pretty wrong.
Surreylily:
--- Quote from: BlackIce on Thursday May 24, 2018, 10:45:43 PM Eastern ---
I know you are being facetious and superstitious here, but I just heard a blog from Alan May commenting on the key things the Caps need to do in the upcoming series. I think he might have made a slip-up at the end of his commentary that indicates his true assessment of the Caps/Vegas series. After discussing the keys to victory (defensive coverage/PK/PP) he concluded by making a comment very much like this: "If the Caps can accomplish these key things, they may have a chance to beat the Golden Knights."
Note he didn't say that if the Caps do these things they will be "tough to beat," "in good shape," or any reasonably positive assessment. He sees them, if they do what he says, "having a chance." He sounded as if Vegas is what I have said to others that they are: Not a Cinderella by any means, but simply as good as any team in the NHL this year, and a solid to prohibitive favorite to take the Stanley Cup.
Beyond the Caps/McPhee connection, I think this series is fascinating for another reason. The Caps aren't just representing themselves in this series, they are representing the entire other-30-team NHL establishment against the most Johnny-come-lately upstart possible. I am wondering if the NHL isn't secretly hoping that the Caps win this series to avoid the embarrassment of a first-team franchise winning the Stanley Cup.
Why do I term it an embarrassment? Not because of the oft-discussed argument that the expansion draft rules were too favorable to Vegas and they got too good a set of players; but rather, because this set of players, however good they are as a group, jelled into a powerhouse INSTANTLY. This team wasn't just an unimaginably good first-year team; they were unimaginably good from the first WEEK of the season. They came out of the gate like a house afire and never looked back. In NHL thinking, this simply shouldn't happen, because the NHL is a team game where chemistry and team development matters, and any franchise needs to go through tough times to learn how to succeed. A franchise needs to build chemistry and the know-how to do both the obvious and the subtle things to survive both an interminable regular season and the rigors of the Stanley Cup playoffs, which the NHL likes to market as the toughest championship to win in all of sports.
Caps fans have bought into this; fans are talking about "it's our time," as though it's taken the franchise all this time without a championship to finally "get it right". But heck, Vegas pulled players literally from all over the continent, and in the space of a training camp had all the chemistry and know-how they needed to take this league by storm. Their success blows the whole "This league is tough to succeed in and you need to develop the capability to win over time" paradigm out of the water. Their success suggests that gradual growth and development of a franchise ISN'T necessarily the model; get some kind of formula right and you can literally run roughshod over the league starting next week.
The Caps not only represent themselves in this series; they represent the traditional NHL marketing storyline that success isn't easy, that you need to work hard and figure out how to win over time, and eventually your time may come. DC's been talking about this recently, rationalizing the Caps' playoff success this year after he had badmouthed the organization and its players for years. He's been saying that it has happened because the players changed, and finally bought into the argument that you need to knuckle down and find an extra playoff gear if you are going to succeed in the playoffs, a lesson, according to him, that had never sunk in before. The NHL would love him for evangelizing their party line. And maybe the NHL is hoping for a Caps victory to legitimize that party line as well. Because if Vegas wins, that entire marketing story line, the basis of the sport's argument for the greatness of its competition, goes down the tubes. What would they use as a replacement? That the league is easy enough that a new team can be pulled out of thin air and could blast the entire league out of the water?
It seems to me that this is a watershed moment for the NHL. If Vegas wins, they can market it as the greatest out-of-the-blue accomplishment in the history of professional sports, which I think is demonstrably true. But it bursts the balloon on the decades-old glamorization of their sport.
--- End quote ---
VERY interesting post.
I like a good conspiracy theory........ :P , so I'll bite.
It throws up quite a few questions, for sure. ( I'm still a little overexcited, so take that into account if you would. :wackysmile: )
I will say it AGAIN. I think the Refs in this sport should be independent of the NHL and NOT controlled by them.
Considering WHO the refs have been in the last few games, notably anti-Caps refs, I've been a little surprised at how it's gone tbh. You know when you get a little niggle in the back of your brain, asking that question, but not quite knowing why?
When I see who the refs are before a game, when I see the names O'Halloran/Joanette/and what's his face... ? Meh, I'm so sorry, but you all know who I mean. That Canadian fella.... I just think okay, we're screwed. Willy's gonna spend half the game in the box. Tons of phantom calls against us, whilst the other team gets away with almost everything.
So..... considering the historical record of these refs..... do you think they were instructed to allow us at least the best chance, because we are probably most likely to be the best match up against Vegas?
I somewhat suspect that Trotz (at least) has put in an official complaint about the refs. I can't substantiate that in any way. Like I said.... "suspect".
My concern now will be that the refs will try to officiate in our favour. :-\
From my point of view, I just want the best team to win. If it's us, FANTASTIC. If it's them, it is what it is.
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BlackIce:
--- Quote from: Surreylily on Friday May 25, 2018, 03:01:51 PM Eastern ---
VERY interesting post.
I like a good conspiracy theory........ :P , so I'll bite.
It throws up quite a few questions, for sure. ( I'm still a little overexcited, so take that into account if you would. :wackysmile: )
I will say it AGAIN. I think the Refs in this sport should be independent of the NHL and NOT controlled by them.
Considering WHO the refs have been in the last few games, notably anti-Caps refs, I've been a little surprised at how it's gone tbh. You know when you get a little niggle in the back of your brain, asking that question, but not quite knowing why?
When I see who the refs are before a game, when I see the names O'Halloran/Joanette/and what's his face... ? Meh, I'm so sorry, but you all know who I mean. That Canadian fella.... I just think okay, we're screwed. Willy's gonna spend half the game in the box. Tons of phantom calls against us, whilst the other team gets away with almost everything.
So..... considering the historical record of these refs..... do you think they were instructed to allow us at least the best chance, because we are probably most likely to be the best match up against Vegas?
I somewhat suspect that Trotz (at least) has put in an official complaint about the refs. I can't substantiate that in any way. Like I said.... "suspect".
My concern now will be that the refs will try to officiate in our favour. :-\
From my point of view, I just want the best team to win. If it's us, FANTASTIC. If it's them, it is what it is.
--- End quote ---
Let me clarify one thing at the outset: I'm not proposing a conspiracy here to help the Caps win the Cup. I'm simply saying that the NHL may be HOPING that that is the outcome.
Since I heard Alan May give his three keys that would allow the Caps to "have a chance," let me propose my three keys that give the Caps the best chance to win.
(1) Holtby needs to negate Fleury. To this point Fleury has had the greatest postseason in the history of the NHL, save %-wise. The Caps either need to use their shooting prowess (and they have been one of the top shooting teams in the NHL for the last decade, regular season at least) to bring him down to Earth some, or Holtby has to elevate his game a little so that the goalies are essentially offsetting each other.
(2) Eller's line may be the offensive key to this series from the Caps' point of view. That line has the potential to be a really productive line facing the bottom of Vegas' forward lineup, and if the Caps can get reasonably consistent production from them the scales may tip in their favor. Part of this has to do with point 1. Connolly and Burakovsky are both sneaky snipers; if they can get some room and shooting lanes, they could help bring Fleury back to Earth.
(3) The one thing that I think could be most crucial to Caps' success is if they can turn this into a men-vs.-boys series by continuing their hitting. They have 3 of the top 4 hitters in the playoffs in Ovie/Wilson/Orpik, and Smith-Pelly, Orlov, Niskanen, Oshie, Eller, and even Backstrom can add to the physicality. Vegas picked up Reaves from the Pens to give them a substantial physical presence, but he is basically a 6-8 minute player most games; he can't enforce pacificity when physicality comes from everywhere, and in fact, the more he is on the ice the better it probably is for the Caps. It won't be easy to turn this into a physical series, because Vegas is tough to catch. But if the Caps can wear them down and slow them down over the duration of the series, that might give them the best opportunity to knock them out in the end.
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