Talk about Capitals hockey & more! > Washington Capitals & Other Hockey Discussion
GDT R3G3 Lightning @ Capitals 2018-05-15 8:00pm EST NBCSN, CBC, SN, TVAS
BlackIce:
--- Quote from: Devise on Thursday May 17, 2018, 01:30:00 AM Eastern ---
You don't really understand how momentum works do you?
You only need to score a goal to get back into the game. Right? By your "logic" here it doesn't matter when you score, or how you go about scoring, all that matters is that yous core. Right?
In Game 1, when Tampa scored but it was too many men on the ice, Ovechkin then scored with seconds on the clock off a faceoff on the ensuing PP. The Bolts had no life after that moment. Sure, there was lots of time left. But the momentum was sapped, even the commentators acknowledged it as a "turning point" in the game the moment it happened. How would these analysts know one goal was such a turning point?
Because the players aren't robots. They are human. They have emotions, adrenaline, anger, etc. Why do you think some of the best playoff teams look good at making other teams look unlike themselves? Why do you think us beating Tampa in the first two games was a big deal? We frustrated them, we deprived them of hope. If they push back in this series and take Game 4 on the road not only does it nullify the momentum we built, it gives a team that wasn't confident in itself confidence. Again, all these intangibles are real things that happen in the brain of human people. It's why coaches in this league can be stunned to see players come out and almost lay eggs and then come out and look excellent. Same players, same teams. Mental fortitude and conditioning is often one of the most unheralded and untalked about things from fans, but it's real, it matters, and it effects everything.
--- End quote ---
Right. And good teams find a way to reverse the momentum that almost inevitably swings the other way at some point in a series between roughly equal teams. Otherwise, why are the Caps still playing if they lost the first two at home to Columbus in the first round? Why are they still playing after taking a 2-0 lead in the 3rd period against the Pens in game 1 and then watching the Pens score 3 goals in 5 minutes to pull the rug from under them? Those were sobering moments in this playoff season -- and the Caps found a way to turn momentum in their favor.
I have no idea how many times momentum may swing yet again in this series. It could be a number of times, with up to 4 games still left. This isn't the 2004 Sawx, where down 3-0, once they turned the momentum they had to keep it. The chances are that this series is going to be a dogfight to the end. Tampa is too good a team to expect otherwise, even IF the Caps win tonight.
KitFisto:
It's a dogfight the Caps can win IF they win tonight. If they lose tonight, they crumble.
BlackIce:
--- Quote from: DC_1908 on Wednesday May 16, 2018, 12:37:47 PM Eastern ---You mean analysis, identifying patterns and trends and being able to predict with high accuracy of what will happen if certain things continue and/or not changed? Thats not really whinny if you understand basic stats and forecasting.
The delusional fans and the hero-worshipers to who loosing is ok, if you're just a bit better thats all you need, and "some day" and "next year" is in the hands of fate of fate.
There is NO EXCUSE for their lack of effort last game, and even LESS excuses for those that forgive them because "participation trophies are trendy now, because holding people accountable to success hurts peoples feelings" . . . this attitude be the fans and ownership is a big factor for The Caps continued falure
--- End quote ---
As a career statistician I am not against reasoned analysis. Far from it. But what you do is not reasoned analysis. It is a sort of schizophrenic blame/support game, where, if/when things are not going the way you want, not only is it that the team isn't playing well, it's because the nature of the players that are here, and the management that brought them here, is fundamentally misguided so that there is no chance that the team will ever accomplish anything.
Until all of a sudden the playoff narrative changes. Then your story goes from "there's no way this team will win a game in the second round (presumably, based on your astute analysis)" to "we're doing well because we changed the way we're playing (which, of course, flies in the face of your previous analysis) with a side order of "the Penguins are overrated and didn't respect us" which was and is baloney. We won the Penguins series because, for a change, we took it away from the two time defending champions who were still playing hard to try for the 3peat. They respected/respect us, and you know why? Because the previous two years, when they did win the Cup, we gave them as much difficulty as anyone did. They knew where a significant challenge was coming from.
And then we carry over and win the first two games of this series, all is well and our transmogrification is proceeding apace. Then we lose game 3 and it's back to some of the same angst. This exposes what I think is another flaw in your "analytic reasoning." It focuses on the Caps and the Caps alone. If they are playing according to your standards they'll win. If they don't, they won't. It ignores one thing: The opposition. In any series between roughly even teams, about 50% of the balance of play and changes in momentum are due to what one team does, and the rest is due to what the other team does. It's the nature of even competition. We made statements of sorts in games 1 and 2. Tampa responded in game 3. We'll see what happens from here. Do I know who is going to win this series? Nope, I don't have a clue. So I'll follow the games and see what happens instead of making grandiose proclamations. And you know what? Win or lose this series, and if the Caps win it, win or lose the Cup finals, I'll get up the next day and start watching for and thinking about the inevitable changes to come, because it's going to be another interesting off-season in Caps land.
alta:
--- Quote from: BlackIce on Thursday May 17, 2018, 02:15:40 PM Eastern ---
As a career statistician I am not against reasoned analysis. Far from it. But what you do is not reasoned analysis. It is a sort of schizophrenic blame/support game, where, if/when things are not going the way you want, not only is it that the team isn't playing well, it's because the nature of the players that are here, and the management that brought them here, is fundamentally misguided so that there is no chance that the team will ever accomplish anything.
.........
--- End quote ---
As a career statistician tell us how many times this core squad showed us the brilliance of last years R2G5 directly followed by their performance in G6. Stats are great, they can tell you lots, but there are times stats don't work.
DC_1908:
--- Quote from: BlackIce on Thursday May 17, 2018, 02:15:40 PM Eastern ---
As a career statistician I am not against reasoned analysis. Far from it. But what you do is not reasoned analysis. It is a sort of schizophrenic blame/support game, where, if/when things are not going the way you want, not only is it that the team isn't playing well, it's because the nature of the players that are here, and the management that brought them here, is fundamentally misguided so that there is no chance that the team will ever accomplish anything.
Until all of a sudden the playoff narrative changes. Then your story goes from "there's no way this team will win a game in the second round (presumably, based on your astute analysis)" to "we're doing well because we changed the way we're playing (which, of course, flies in the face of your previous analysis) with a side order of "the Penguins are overrated and didn't respect us" which was and is baloney. We won the Penguins series because, for a change, we took it away from the two time defending champions who were still playing hard to try for the 3peat. They respected/respect us, and you know why? Because the previous two years, when they did win the Cup, we gave them as much difficulty as anyone did. They knew where a significant challenge was coming from.
And then we carry over and win the first two games of this series, all is well and our transmogrification is proceeding apace. Then we lose game 3 and it's back to some of the same angst. This exposes what I think is another flaw in your "analytic reasoning." It focuses on the Caps and the Caps alone. If they are playing according to your standards they'll win. If they don't, they won't. It ignores one thing: The opposition. In any series between roughly even teams, about 50% of the balance of play and changes in momentum are due to what one team does, and the rest is due to what the other team does. It's the nature of even competition. We made statements of sorts in games 1 and 2. Tampa responded in game 3. We'll see what happens from here. Do I know who is going to win this series? Nope, I don't have a clue. So I'll follow the games and see what happens instead of making grandiose proclamations. And you know what? Win or lose this series, and if the Caps win it, win or lose the Cup finals, I'll get up the next day and start watching for and thinking about the inevitable changes to come, because it's going to be another interesting off-season in Caps land.
--- End quote ---
As Data Strategist and Modeler, I know a career statistician would typically know what I am talking about, and not just take things for face value and hope and pray it changes.
To even say I don't take the opposition in account, just shows that you haven't gotten a thing I have said.
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