GDT R3G3 Lightning @ Capitals 2018-05-15 8:00pm EST NBCSN, CBC, SN, TVAS

[BlackIce]

The issue here is not arithmetic.  Houston, we have a problem, and the problem is whiny, disillusioned fans who insist upon seeing disaster and declaring hopelessness around every corner.


I happen to be a shrug-the-shoulders type about whatever happens in pro sports, because my primary pro sports rooting interest during my life has been the Boston Red Sox rather than the Washington Capitals.  One lesson that franchise taught me is that when you've gone a long time without success, you will continue to do so -- until the day that you don't.  And no one, regardless of their self-proclaimed insight or expertise, really knows when that might occur.  The Sawx are probably THE pre-eminent example of this truth due to the circumstances preceding their 2004 championship.

[DC_1908]

The issue here is not arithmetic.  Houston, we have a problem, and the problem is whiny, disillusioned fans who insist upon seeing disaster and declaring hopelessness around every corner.


I happen to be a shrug-the-shoulders type about whatever happens in pro sports, because my primary pro sports rooting interest during my life has been the Boston Red Sox rather than the Washington Capitals.  One lesson that franchise taught me is that when you've gone a long time without success, you will continue to do so -- until the day that you don't.  And no one, regardless of their self-proclaimed insight or expertise, really knows when that might occur.  The Sawx are probably THE pre-eminent example of this truth due to the circumstances preceding their 2004 championship.

You mean analysis, identifying patterns and trends and being able to predict with high accuracy of what will happen if certain things continue and/or not changed?  Thats not really whinny if you understand basic stats and forecasting.


The delusional fans and the  hero-worshipers to who loosing is ok, if you're just a bit better thats all you need, and "some day" and "next year" is in the hands of fate of fate.


There is NO EXCUSE for their lack of effort last game, and even LESS excuses for those that forgive them because "participation trophies are trendy now, because holding people accountable to success hurts peoples feelings" . . .  this attitude be the fans and ownership is a big factor for The Caps continued falure

[alta]

Ive been looking for info about supplemental action today, nothing so far

In case you all forgot, this was the final preseason game this year, this is obviously the St Louis feed, I can't find the Washington feed, it had a much better picture, which is probably why the NHL didn't use it.



How many times a week has that hit happened in the NHL? How many times was there supplemental action taken? Here is Stralmans hit....





I'm not picking on Tampa here, I'm picking on the NHLs hypocrisy

[DC_1908]

Ive been looking for info about supplemental action today, nothing so far

In case you all forgot, this was the final preseason game this year, this is obviously the St Louis feed, I can't find the Washington feed, it had a much better picture, which is probably why the NHL didn't use it.



How many times a week has that hit happened in the NHL? How many times was there supplemental action taken? Here is Stralmans hit....





I'm not picking on Tampa here, I'm picking on the NHLs hypocrisy

Ya know, this where I say "The New NHL", its a marketing scheme for the effeminate, and "thats just the way it is" is a copout for Betas and the weak to not work and to avoid getting hurt. . . But playoffs or not, someone needed to at minimum punched Strawman in throat for that.  But hey, they targeted the one player that would do that . . .

go get em Eller, go get em Connolly!  They better look out or Bura will come after them!!   

This will be how they turn the series, which will be why there probably will be no suspension

[richkrt99]

Well, that sucked.


I figured I'd come here and see....


"same ole Caps"
"No heart, no desire, no sack"
"I knew they would blow it"


blah, blah, blah....basically the same old "the Sky was Falling" shit all over again.


However, these boards not as negative as I expected.


Caps got outplayed by a good team.  We didn't look as good as we have and Tampa played really well.  Holtby wasn't stellar.  Vasi played well (which was my biggest fear), and the bounces didn't go our way.
Dumb penalties cost us.  few bad bouncs (Orpik clear) cost us dearly.  The penalty calls not horrific, but certainly not quite fair


I really wasn't expecting a sweep.  Tampa is good.  I really didn't think we'd get past Tampa....until after game 2.
Hope Caps rebound strong in Game 4.  I fear this may take 7 games which not sure I can handle the stress, cause in game 7 anything can happen.  My heart can't take it.


Go Caps

[richkrt99]

Ive been looking for info about supplemental action today, nothing so far

In case you all forgot, this was the final preseason game this year, this is obviously the St Louis feed, I can't find the Washington feed, it had a much better picture, which is probably why the NHL didn't use it.



How many times a week has that hit happened in the NHL? How many times was there supplemental action taken? Here is Stralmans





I'm not picking on Tampa here, I'm picking on the NHLs hypocrisy

I didn't think the hit was that bad...when I first saw it.  Looking at it in slow mo....He did pretty much leave his feet to hit Willy and got the arm up a bit.
I don't believe anything will come of it.
I do believe if it had been the other way around Willy would get a minimum three games suspension.

[KitFistosBrotherInLaw]

Let's go Caps....  Caps??? Hello???

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[Devise]

No.  If we don't win 4 games we lose the series.  Any win counts for 1 in the win column.  It doesn't matter which game number it is. We need 4 wins.  Period.

You don't really understand how momentum works do you?


You only need to score a goal to get back into the game. Right? By your "logic" here it doesn't matter when you score, or how you go about scoring, all that matters is that yous core. Right?


In Game 1, when Tampa scored but it was too many men on the ice, Ovechkin then scored with seconds on the clock off a faceoff on the ensuing PP. The Bolts had no life after that moment. Sure, there was lots of time left. But the momentum was sapped, even the commentators acknowledged it as a "turning point" in the game the moment it happened. How would these analysts know one goal was such a turning point?


Because the players aren't robots. They are human. They have emotions, adrenaline, anger, etc. Why do you think some of the best playoff teams look good at making other teams look unlike themselves? Why do you think us beating Tampa in the first two games was a big deal? We frustrated them, we deprived them of hope. If they push back in this series and take Game 4 on the road not only does it nullify the momentum we built, it gives a team that wasn't confident in itself confidence. Again, all these intangibles are real things that happen in the brain of human people. It's why coaches in this league can be stunned to see players come out and almost lay eggs and then come out and look excellent. Same players, same teams. Mental fortitude and conditioning is often one of the most unheralded and untalked about things from fans, but it's real, it matters, and it effects everything.

[DC_1908]

You don't really understand how momentum works do you?


You only need to score a goal to get back into the game. Right? By your "logic" here it doesn't matter when you score, or how you go about scoring, all that matters is that yous core. Right?


In Game 1, when Tampa scored but it was too many men on the ice, Ovechkin then scored with seconds on the clock off a faceoff on the ensuing PP. The Bolts had no life after that moment. Sure, there was lots of time left. But the momentum was sapped, even the commentators acknowledged it as a "turning point" in the game the moment it happened. How would these analysts know one goal was such a turning point?


Because the players aren't robots. They are human. They have emotions, adrenaline, anger, etc. Why do you think some of the best playoff teams look good at making other teams look unlike themselves? Why do you think us beating Tampa in the first two games was a big deal? We frustrated them, we deprived them of hope. If they push back in this series and take Game 4 on the road not only does it nullify the momentum we built, it gives a team that wasn't confident in itself confidence. Again, all these intangibles are real things that happen in the brain of human people. It's why coaches in this league can be stunned to see players come out and almost lay eggs and then come out and look excellent. Same players, same teams. Mental fortitude and conditioning is often one of the most unheralded and untalked about things from fans, but it's real, it matters, and it effects everything.

Which is a main reason for our playoff “successes” the last 10 years.


A case can be made for this team being to sensitive to momemtum, both positive and negative.  We’ve all seen something as small as one goal up to a whole game derail a whole postseason with this team. 


As the quote goes “All it takes is one bad day”

[KitFisto]

The issue here is not arithmetic.  Houston, we have a problem, and the problem is whiny, disillusioned fans who insist upon seeing disaster and declaring hopelessness around every corner..

Yeah, maybe that's because we've never experienced anything different. Win ONE and that will immediately change forever for me.

[BlackIce]

Yeah, maybe that's because we've never experienced anything different. Win ONE and that will immediately change forever for me.

Then you are weak.


Back to the 2004 Red Sox.  That year they lost the first 3 games of their best of 7 ALCS series to the Yankees, the 3rd game by a score of 19-8.  It was an embarrassment.  One commentator referred to the game as a "steaming pile of baseball."  Fans were on chat boards excoriating the team up and down and declaring the Sawx would never win a championship, they'd never beat the Yankees, the team was a heartless, gutless bunch of losers, etc.


In the midst of this, I made what I thought was one sort of neutral comment.  I said that one interesting thing about being in this position was that it gave the Sox a chance to become the first team in major league baseball history to come back from a 3-0 deficit in a best of 7 playoff series.  I was absolutely RIDICULED for even suggesting such a possibility.


The Sox never lost another game that fall, either in the Yankee series or the World Series.


That fall taught me that one NEVER knows what is going to happen in sports.  NEVER. 

[alta]

The Sox crewed themselves in '04. Before that they could blame The Bambino, now they just suck


maybe hollywood will show up and take over an entire section and screw the fans to film a dumb movie

[KitFisto]

Edited...not worth it.

[DC_1908]

Then you are weak.


Back to the 2004 Red Sox.  That year they lost the first 3 games of their best of 7 ALCS series to the Yankees, the 3rd game by a score of 19-8.  It was an embarrassment.  One commentator referred to the game as a "steaming pile of baseball."  Fans were on chat boards excoriating the team up and down and declaring the Sawx would never win a championship, they'd never beat the Yankees, the team was a heartless, gutless bunch of losers, etc.


In the midst of this, I made what I thought was one sort of neutral comment.  I said that one interesting thing about being in this position was that it gave the Sox a chance to become the first team in major league baseball history to come back from a 3-0 deficit in a best of 7 playoff series.  I was absolutely RIDICULED for even suggesting such a possibility.


The Sox never lost another game that fall, either in the Yankee series or the World Series.


That fall taught me that one NEVER knows what is going to happen in sports.  NEVER.

Dude I am a LIONS fan. . .


The first team to go 0-16.   The team that hasn't won a playoff game since 1991, let alone been to a NFC championship, or a Super Bowl, with their last champion ship in 1956.

The team who had the most incompetent owner,  hired and kept the most incompetent Pres, VPs and GMS EVER (which is a lot coming from a Caps fan).

The team that drafted three WR in 3 years and where all flops.

The team that refused to, and/or couldn't not support the greatest MLB, RB, and the greatest athlete to play WR so they all walked.


Sox and Cubs fans can kiss my ass compared to The Lions (though Browns fans may have an case).

What I've learned, is you can know with a high probability, whats  gonna happen in sports,through just basic objective observation, forecasting, analysis, combined  knowing the history, trends, and typical results. 

But what has the single lowest success rate, is blind optimism and hoping for dramatic divine intervention, and Hollywood/video game endings. 

While I admit it doesn't have a 0% failure rate, neither does the the lottery or hitting on 18 when the dealer has a 2.

[alta]

yea, see, the kind of luck I have is I'd hold on the 18 as the dealer draws a 10 and 7

[BlackIce]

You don't really understand how momentum works do you?


You only need to score a goal to get back into the game. Right? By your "logic" here it doesn't matter when you score, or how you go about scoring, all that matters is that yous core. Right?


In Game 1, when Tampa scored but it was too many men on the ice, Ovechkin then scored with seconds on the clock off a faceoff on the ensuing PP. The Bolts had no life after that moment. Sure, there was lots of time left. But the momentum was sapped, even the commentators acknowledged it as a "turning point" in the game the moment it happened. How would these analysts know one goal was such a turning point?


Because the players aren't robots. They are human. They have emotions, adrenaline, anger, etc. Why do you think some of the best playoff teams look good at making other teams look unlike themselves? Why do you think us beating Tampa in the first two games was a big deal? We frustrated them, we deprived them of hope. If they push back in this series and take Game 4 on the road not only does it nullify the momentum we built, it gives a team that wasn't confident in itself confidence. Again, all these intangibles are real things that happen in the brain of human people. It's why coaches in this league can be stunned to see players come out and almost lay eggs and then come out and look excellent. Same players, same teams. Mental fortitude and conditioning is often one of the most unheralded and untalked about things from fans, but it's real, it matters, and it effects everything.

Right.  And good teams find a way to reverse the momentum that almost inevitably swings the other way at some point in a series between roughly equal teams.  Otherwise, why are the Caps still playing if they lost the first two at home to Columbus in the first round?  Why are they still playing after taking a 2-0 lead in the 3rd period against the Pens in game 1 and then watching the Pens score 3 goals in 5 minutes to pull the rug from under them?  Those were sobering moments in this playoff season -- and the Caps found a way to turn momentum in their favor.


I have no idea how many times momentum may swing yet again in this series.  It could be a number of times, with up to 4 games still left.  This isn't the 2004 Sawx, where down 3-0, once they turned the momentum they had to keep it.  The chances are that this series is going to be a dogfight to the end.  Tampa is too good a team to expect otherwise, even IF the Caps win tonight.

[KitFisto]

It's a dogfight the Caps can win IF they win tonight. If they lose tonight,  they crumble.

[BlackIce]

You mean analysis, identifying patterns and trends and being able to predict with high accuracy of what will happen if certain things continue and/or not changed?  Thats not really whinny if you understand basic stats and forecasting.


The delusional fans and the  hero-worshipers to who loosing is ok, if you're just a bit better thats all you need, and "some day" and "next year" is in the hands of fate of fate.


There is NO EXCUSE for their lack of effort last game, and even LESS excuses for those that forgive them because "participation trophies are trendy now, because holding people accountable to success hurts peoples feelings" . . .  this attitude be the fans and ownership is a big factor for The Caps continued falure

As a career statistician I am not against reasoned analysis.  Far from it.  But what you do is not reasoned analysis.  It is a sort of schizophrenic blame/support game, where, if/when things are not going the way you want, not only is it that the team isn't playing well, it's because the nature of the players that are here, and the management that brought them here, is fundamentally misguided so that there is no chance that the team will ever accomplish anything.


Until all of a sudden the playoff narrative changes.  Then your story goes from "there's no way this team will win a game in the second round (presumably, based on your astute analysis)" to "we're doing well because we changed the way we're playing (which, of course, flies in the face of your previous analysis) with a side order of "the Penguins are overrated and didn't respect us" which was and is baloney.  We won the Penguins series because, for a change, we took it away from the two time defending champions who were still playing hard to try for the 3peat.  They respected/respect us, and you know why?  Because the previous two years, when they did win the Cup, we gave them as much difficulty as anyone did.  They knew where a significant challenge was coming from.


And then we carry over and win the first two games of this series, all is well and our transmogrification is proceeding apace.  Then we lose game 3 and it's back to some of the same angst.  This exposes what I think is another flaw in your "analytic reasoning."  It focuses on the Caps and the Caps alone.  If they are playing according to your standards they'll win.  If they don't, they won't.  It ignores one thing:  The opposition.  In any series between roughly even teams, about 50% of the balance of play and changes in momentum are due to what one team does, and the rest is due to what the other team does.  It's the nature of even competition.  We made statements of sorts in games 1 and 2.  Tampa responded in game 3.  We'll see what happens from here.  Do I know who is going to win this series?  Nope, I don't have a clue.  So I'll follow the games and see what happens instead of making grandiose proclamations. And you know what?  Win or lose this series, and if the Caps win it, win or lose the Cup finals, I'll get up the next day and start watching for and thinking about the inevitable changes to come, because it's going to be another interesting off-season in Caps land.

[alta]

As a career statistician I am not against reasoned analysis.  Far from it.  But what you do is not reasoned analysis.  It is a sort of schizophrenic blame/support game, where, if/when things are not going the way you want, not only is it that the team isn't playing well, it's because the nature of the players that are here, and the management that brought them here, is fundamentally misguided so that there is no chance that the team will ever accomplish anything.
.........

As a career statistician tell us how many times this core squad showed us the brilliance of last years R2G5 directly followed by their performance in G6. Stats are great, they can tell you lots, but there are times stats don't work.

[DC_1908]

As a career statistician I am not against reasoned analysis.  Far from it.  But what you do is not reasoned analysis.  It is a sort of schizophrenic blame/support game, where, if/when things are not going the way you want, not only is it that the team isn't playing well, it's because the nature of the players that are here, and the management that brought them here, is fundamentally misguided so that there is no chance that the team will ever accomplish anything.


Until all of a sudden the playoff narrative changes.  Then your story goes from "there's no way this team will win a game in the second round (presumably, based on your astute analysis)" to "we're doing well because we changed the way we're playing (which, of course, flies in the face of your previous analysis) with a side order of "the Penguins are overrated and didn't respect us" which was and is baloney.  We won the Penguins series because, for a change, we took it away from the two time defending champions who were still playing hard to try for the 3peat.  They respected/respect us, and you know why?  Because the previous two years, when they did win the Cup, we gave them as much difficulty as anyone did.  They knew where a significant challenge was coming from.


And then we carry over and win the first two games of this series, all is well and our transmogrification is proceeding apace.  Then we lose game 3 and it's back to some of the same angst.  This exposes what I think is another flaw in your "analytic reasoning."  It focuses on the Caps and the Caps alone.  If they are playing according to your standards they'll win.  If they don't, they won't.  It ignores one thing:  The opposition.  In any series between roughly even teams, about 50% of the balance of play and changes in momentum are due to what one team does, and the rest is due to what the other team does.  It's the nature of even competition.  We made statements of sorts in games 1 and 2.  Tampa responded in game 3.  We'll see what happens from here.  Do I know who is going to win this series?  Nope, I don't have a clue.  So I'll follow the games and see what happens instead of making grandiose proclamations. And you know what?  Win or lose this series, and if the Caps win it, win or lose the Cup finals, I'll get up the next day and start watching for and thinking about the inevitable changes to come, because it's going to be another interesting off-season in Caps land.

As Data Strategist and Modeler, I know a career statistician would typically know what I am talking about, and not just take things for face value and hope and pray it changes.


To even say I don't take the opposition in account, just shows that you haven't gotten a thing I have said.