R1G6 Caps vs Panthers @ 7:30pm

[Surreylily]

Well that sucked.  I think it was about what we expected going in though, no?  I kind of figured we go down in 4-1 or 4-2.
I was stoked when we went up 2-1 but new it wouldn't last.  Then I was shocked when we actually tied it. I didn't expect to win in OT, but you just never know with OT.  Honestly we didn't really look very good in OT and it was inevitable....I was just hoping for a miracle....hoping for an Ovie sighting, but alas...

Fucking Samsonov....You could see the entire team and stadium deflate when he let in that softy WAY TOO soon after we went up.  You just can't do that and expect to win.  He played better for the most part than I expected in the series overall, but you can't let in a softy per game.


Mostly, the fucking old guys did pull their weight:
Ovi:  1G, 5A
Backy:  2G, 4A
Oshie:  6G, 1A
Kuzy:  2G, 3A
Eller: 1G, 2A
Carlson:  1G, 4A  (and a minus 5)
Mantha:  0G, 4A
I would have liked to see more goals out of Ovi, and certainly Mantha.


We just could not quite compete with FLA.  Missing Tom hurt in many ways, hitting, energy, scoring, PK, PP, and just help drives this team.
Backy is smart and skilled and he provided some points (more than I expected), but there's no hiding he has lost beyond a step in his game.  Oshie; yeah he has some aging health issues, but he fucking plays.  He's not very fast and not as durable as he used to but you can't complain about his compete level or his effectiveness in this series.  Same for Ovi...he doesn't work as hard as Oshie, but also hasn't slowed down all that much.




Blow up the team?  Never happen....well not in the Ovi era.  You can hope for it and want it, but I don't see it happening.  This team committed itself to Ovie and Backie and the club and we are stuck with it.  I can't see them being able to move ANY of the big contract pieces out anyway.  Who would take Backy at $10m?  We have nothing left to give away to sweeten the pot.


I expect there will be few changes in the offseason.  I can wish and dream, but....I think we are stuck with this.  The biggest question is what to do about GT.  Both guys are RFA's and DO YOU want to rely on either as a starter next year?  Sammy does have some great talent, but also brain farts more than any GT I've ever seen.  His rebound control is out of control and he loses his net now and then (way too often)  Vitek is a bit steadier, but he aint great.


Not sure why everyone hates Lavy - other than he's the coach and they always take the heat.  He has a mediocre team whose best parts are aged past their prime.  He has no goal tending to work with whatsoever.  Florida is a far better team at this point.  IF we had Bobrovsky and they Sammy, we would have won the series.  Florida won all the puck battles and all the foot races and the Goal tending matchups.  You can put SOME of that on the coach, but most of that is on the the players.  Like someone else said....Scotty Bowman could not get THIS team to the Cup.
For what it's worth....Everyone hated Trotz after his multiple playoff failures and even up thru about 90% of the season we won the Cup.  Everyone was calling for his head....and then after he's gone....he's all that?


As for McMichael....he is exactly the type of player we didn't need more of in the playoffs...NOT a hitter, NOT a great back checker, NOT a great anything.  Lots of potential, but not enough at this point to make a positive impact.  Hell, I'll take Sheary or Hathy double shifting over McMichael in the playoffs anytime (at this point).  Hopefully that changes (soon) moving forward


Florida outplayed us for most of the series.  They deserved to win it.  We had times when we were the better team, but not enough of them.  We had our chances to steal it (ahem game 4) but we let them slip.


Bummer.  (and the lifelong Cap fan was heard to say.....shortly after losing in the 1st round..."Well, there's always next year" 

I'm gonna have to break this down a bit, methinks....
Sammy..      Played way better than I expected in the playoffs. Agile, obviously talented, sadly has not one functioning brain cell between his ears.  I think he has the mental and emotional capacity of a 5 year old.

We diefinitely missed the Willy.
You're right about Backus.  NOBODY will take him.  our only hope there is for him to retire.  ...   And yet he put up good points post season.  And as you say, our "Old Farts" performed a damn sight better than our young studs.

[Surreylily]

As for the Toilet............His decisions have been    ....   bizzarre sometimes.
Why would you put McMichael in the team and play him that few minutes?          Why would you do that?  Why would you both, CRUSH him and scupper our chances in the playoffs?  Totally ridiculous decision.   This man's choices of who to play and where to play them have been pretty random.   He does NOT have a fucking clue what he is doing.

Oh, and for the record, I was a Trotz fan from early on and still am.  I think he's an outstanding human being.

[waynerivers]

Regarding Oshie, he's fine as a 3rd liner on a real good team.  When he's the guy pulling the cart, you have big problems.  The team, to be precise, is too old, too slow, too small on the blueline and has sub-par goaltending.  Oh, and the coach is a retread who's been passed around like an old dish rag from team to team.  We have to be able to do better.  Keeping the same tired crew also does nothing for Ovie's quest for the goal record despite what some people think.  If that's all they're interested in then what's the point?

If I were running this team the first thing I'd do is unload Carlson.  I don't care how many points he has because he's a defensive liability of huge proportions.  There were two times in the series where he tried to play a puck on the rightwing boards and totally whiffed leading to odd man rushes and Panther goals, one around center and one at the right point.  That aside, he's just awful in our own zone, I mean really bad.  No doubt we could sucker somebody to pick up his contract and probably get a couple good players and/or draft picks in return.

As far as the rest of the defense, I'd keep Orlov and Fehervary.  The other guys would be available in the right deal.  As I said, they need size on defense which is one reason I was surprised they traded Dillon before the season started.  Size and skating ability is even better.

Up front, I'd keep Ovie, Kuz, Wilson, Hathy, Dowd and Sheary.  Oshie probably earned another year based on his playoffs.  Everybody else can go if there are takers.  Mojo won't be here anyway so we basically gave away Sprong for nothing.   I'd give ALL the young guys a real thorough trial next year and see who looks like they can do it over the long haul.  I gravely doubt we'll be in playoff contention so we might as well start to make the changes right away.

As for goaltending, both guys look great at times but are horribly inconsistent and let in weak goals at the worst times.  If I had to take one guy, I think it would be VV.  Sammy lets his head take over too much IMO once he has problems and failure becomes self fulfilling.  That aside, a true #1 goalie is a must if they ever plan on making any noise in the coming years.

[Mickstix]

Carlson earns 8 million bucks a year to make a nice pass to Ovi on the PP. For the life of me I can't figure out why no one else on the team could do the same. In the offseason, setup a cone and put 200 pucks on it every time you're at the arena.. Learn how to put a slapshot in the vicinity of the cage. Done. It's nice to have his offensive #'s but his D is a liability. Wish they'd find the guts to move him, but I seriously doubt they even entertain the idea.


Sounds like Nicky may be contemplating retirement? That'd be a blessing, really. He's also a liability 5v5. Maybe they doctor him up for another season but I don't see 3 more seasons from him. Not as fast as the games gotten.


If they hadn't given up picks + Vrana for Mantha, they'd probably be looking to move him as well. But that'd be a admission of a trade mistake, so I'd look for him to be here as well, next season.


Can't wait to see what they do about goal tending. If they keep the same staff/coaches, I imagine it'll be another waste of player(s) picks and money.

[Beaglefan2]

Backy will not retire and walk away from the money.  Best case, they would put him on LTIR, however while that might give them some salary relief, there is no way Caps ownership will eat that loss, so I think LTIR is unlikely.  Historically, the Caps franchise has always spent to the max salary cap level, but they are very focused on making money - just ask the season ticketholders who see prices increase every year.  So you can bet Backy will be back, unless he truly can't play at all.

[Surreylily]

Regarding Oshie, he's fine as a 3rd liner on a real good team.  When he's the guy pulling the cart, you have big problems.  The team, to be precise, is too old, too slow, too small on the blueline and has sub-par goaltending.  Oh, and the coach is a retread who's been passed around like an old dish rag from team to team.  We have to be able to do better.  Keeping the same tired crew also does nothing for Ovie's quest for the goal record despite what some people think.  If that's all they're interested in then what's the point?

If I were running this team the first thing I'd do is unload Carlson.  I don't care how many points he has because he's a defensive liability of huge proportions.  There were two times in the series where he tried to play a puck on the rightwing boards and totally whiffed leading to odd man rushes and Panther goals, one around center and one at the right point.  That aside, he's just awful in our own zone, I mean really bad.  No doubt we could sucker somebody to pick up his contract and probably get a couple good players and/or draft picks in return.

As far as the rest of the defense, I'd keep Orlov and Fehervary.  The other guys would be available in the right deal.  As I said, they need size on defense which is one reason I was surprised they traded Dillon before the season started.  Size and skating ability is even better.

Up front, I'd keep Ovie, Kuz, Wilson, Hathy, Dowd and Sheary.  Oshie probably earned another year based on his playoffs.  Everybody else can go if there are takers.  Mojo won't be here anyway so we basically gave away Sprong for nothing.   I'd give ALL the young guys a real thorough trial next year and see who looks like they can do it over the long haul.  I gravely doubt we'll be in playoff contention so we might as well start to make the changes right away.

As for goaltending, both guys look great at times but are horribly inconsistent and let in weak goals at the worst times.  If I had to take one guy, I think it would be VV.  Sammy lets his head take over too much IMO once he has problems and failure becomes self fulfilling.  That aside, a true #1 goalie is a must if they ever plan on making any noise in the coming years.

I would be fine keeping Kuzy, Sheary, Eller and Dowd and yes, Orlov and Fever.
The rest.... meh!  I wouldnt bust a gut trying to keep them.  I thought Mojo played pretty well once he settled in.  He's improved since he left, in many ways, especially attitude, but I can't see him here next year.

My "kill" list would be all the coaches, with perhaps the exception of the PK coach.  The Toilet has to go.
As do both our goalies.  Neither is up to the task, especially with our weak D.  Maybe a couple more seasons in Hershey will improve Sammy,  but hes not good enough yet.  Neither is VV.
No matter what, we definitely need to get a decent goalie coach in.

[alta]

on D, TVR, Orlov and Fever are definitely worth keeping. Need to dump mr norris, just to clear some salary. He’s been over paid ever since this contract was signed.

[Mickstix]

I don't dislike Jensen either.. He moves the puck well and can skate. We're not gonna get 6 studs on D, no matter how bad we want it.


Ted says they'll make the necessary adjustments to keep contending.. They'll probably move Eller and think that's the key. lol

[Surreylily]

I think we need a Poll!   
Keepers
Dumpers
On the fence.

[waynerivers]

I don't dislike Jensen either.. He moves the puck well and can skate. We're not gonna get 6 studs on D, no matter how bad we want it.


Ted says they'll make the necessary adjustments to keep contending.. They'll probably move Eller and think that's the key. lol

I don't dislike Jensen but, to me, he and Orlov are sort of the same guy except that Orlov can lay a good open ice hit when he decides to do it.  Having them teamed up is the wrong pairing, IMO.  They need somebody back there like Orpik to make opposing forwards think twice and look over their shoulders any time they go into the corners.  Two guys like that would be even better.  Right now, our defense doesn't scare anyone from a physical standpoint and that is a liability, especially in the playoffs.  Tampa has gotten away without a real physical defense but when you have Hedman, McDonoagh, Sergachev, etc. you can do that.  We don't have that talent level.

[richkrt99]

The thing is...nearly ALL the guys have contracts so they are set with very few guys that need to be signed.  Not to say you can't trade them, but there isn't any wiggle room in contracts without a trade...and it needs to be a big number.


Backy is going to be a on his health so he is untradeable.  Only hope, SAD that it is, is he is actually unable to play and he retires.  There is no incentive for him to do so NOW though.  He will try and rehab or whatever over the summer then we will see come October if there is any hope he can play....all Too late to account for (or spend) to replace in the offseason.


Trade Carlson, spend half his $8m on a GT, and the other half on a solid D.  Orlov and Jensen can pick up the jump-in on "O"...as can Fever.  Let Shulz sign a UFA deal elsewhere or bring him back for LESS than current $4m.  Kempny - GONE, TVR keep at a bargain at <$1m.  Irwin - meh....bargain emergency fill-in at $750k (he is UFA so maybe he signs somewhere anyway)


I know Eller gets much grief on these boards, but he's a serviceable 3C - I keep him for $3.5m.  Mojo and Larsson are the only guys without contracts - I'd keep MOJO if you can get him for a 1 year, $1m price tag or there abouts..  Larrson...meh not impressed or unimpressed with him at 700k.  But if Hags returns, then you don't need him.  Better off leaving that roster spot for a youngin.
Ovi, Kuzy, Wilson, Oshie, Hathy, Sheary, Dowd are keepers in my book.  Oshie is aging, but he brings more than just his points.  He's a risk for injury, but who isn't?
Mantha - I know this won't be popular, but I keep him.  I don't think we got a true evaluation of him this season with the injury.  He has shown some good bright spots; speed, size, shot, BIG body at net, etc.  He was mostly invisible in the playoffs, but don't forget - he has very little NHL playoff game experience.  (Not sure you can count the previous two Covid Cups as real playoffs).  I'm giving him one more year before I try and move him because I think he could be a game changer with aspects the Caps desperately need; BIG, FAST, YOUNG, and some scoring skills.  Need to "coach him up" a little bit.


And for God's sake, get some of the younger guys playing.  Put McMichael at 2C and let him play (If Backy is out of equation).  Bring up a young D to fill in some of the ice time for the absence of Carlson.


Of course, all this Fantasy league BS is nice, but the truth is the Caps will never part with Mr. Johnny Q. Norris Carlson.  Ever.

[capsfanpdx]

The makeup of NHL D-corps is morphing a lot but I also favor having some pairings where the opposing team is wary of entering our zone.  Too often the board battles in our own end were just embarrassing.  Watching or D get pushed around like rag dolls was sad.  Not a lot of hope in our prospect pool and I happen not to be on the 24 wagon. (too small IMHO).  We need a veteran pivot to replace 19 and, preferably, win a faceoff or two.

I echo the call to move on from 74.  As for the netminder, more questions now than at the beginning of the season.  Too many other teams will be looking of the same, maybe Zac will rise to the occasion.

It is a big big ask to get all that done in 1 offseason.......................

[Mickstix]

Oh, I could easily jump on a Jensen upgrade, if we moved Carlson.. lol But, in reality, the only move they make, imo, is letting Schultz walk and replacing him. Unless Nicky retires, I'd also look for our top 6 to remain the same. And we need a goaltender. And we're not exactly a shake it up organization, so.. Im personally not expecting much.

[alta]

If the defense in front of the goalies were better, these two goalies wouldn’t look so suspect. Vanecek and Sammy have shown they have potential. I’d be willing to give them one more year, if, big if, this team improves in D *cough74cough* AND gets a better goalie coach. Coaching doesn’t count towards the salary cap and would probably be be this teams best option.. spend what cap they can on actual defense and not a fourth forward. That $8M a year contract for Carlson was a mistake even without the wuhan flu freezing the salary.

[Surreylily]

If the defense in front of the goalies were better, these two goalies wouldn’t look so suspect. Vanecek and Sammy have shown they have potential. I’d be willing to give them one more year, if, big if, this team improves in D *cough74cough* AND gets a better goalie coach. Coaching doesn’t count towards the salary cap and would probably be be this teams best option.. spend what cap they can on actual defense and not a fourth forward. That $8M a year contract for Carlson was a mistake even without the wuhan flu freezing the salary.

I agree with a lot of this.
However I do not agree that either of our goalies are up to the task.  Potential, for sure.  2, maybe 3 more years in Hershey might do it, but they have such fundemental flaws, I don't think even "The Goalie Whisperer",  (hushed tones),  could fix them.
I don't really have faith in either of our goalies at his point.  I think they are both still too young, mentally.

I think to stay within our salary cap, yep, Dylan has to go, but we will still have to make  a choice between GT or D.  I can't see us being able to afford both upgrades.

 

[richkrt99]

So here's my problem with our "young" goal tenders.  Sammy currently is 26 and Vitek is 27.  They will be 27 and 28 come January & February.  They SHOULD already be well into their NHL prime right now.


The average age of NHL goalies is 27.3.  SO our guys are not YOUNG, they are average age for NHL goalie.  I was a little surprised at this - kind of figured the average would be older.


This highly reliable info from the interwebs:  The results are interesting, and still support the theory that on average goaltending development peaks around 23 and maintains in top form until around 26. From that point on the average NHL netminder is in slow decline and stops being around NHL average at 33-34.

I'd argue this a bit in that IMO most GT are in their prime ages 27 -32 with more experience, but also depends on the individual.  AND many of the really good starters are older than 27.  (However digging into those guys, it appears they have been starters for quite some time already)


Sammy and Vitek are both behind the curve in their development into their "peak"  They SHOULD be better than this by now.  Either that or this is just as good as they are ever going to be- which is not quite good enough to be an full time NHL starter.  I'm sure the two Covid seasons didn't help in their development, and it does take much longer to develop a goalie than other players, but at some point....Step up or step aside.  I don't mean to be critical or harsh, but that's the way it is.  Phoenix Copely is an example; has had some great flashes and good starts, but just not quite NHL starter caliber.
Better goalie coach would help...MAYBE, but get me the best goalie coach on the planet and you won't turn Phoenix into a Vezina winner.  Maybe the same goes for Sammy and Vitek?  I would love for a new coach to come in an turn these guys into NHL super stars, but I don't think that truly a possibility at this point.


I am not so concerned about their specific age, but it seems to me they both had MORE than enough opportunity to develop and take the reigns and be our starter over the last couple seasons and neither is up to that task for whatever reason.


I looked at the ages of some of the better goalies this season (based on 2021-22 Stats:  GAA, save %, wins, etc)  I was a bit surprised at the youth of the leaders...


Shesterkin - 26 - NYR  (lead starter since age 25)
Andersen - 32 - CAR  (lead starter since age 24)
Markstrom - 32 - CGY  (lead starter since age 27)
Sorokin - 26 - NYI  (lead starter since last year which was his 1st NHL season moving over from KHL)
Swayman - 23 - BOS 
Kuemper - 32 - COL  (starter since age 28)
Bobrovsky - 32 - FLA (lead starter since age 22)
Vasilevskiy - 27 - TB  (lead starter since age 22)
Saros - 27 - NSH  (lead starter since age 22)


The average age of these top 9 goalies is 28.55.  Most of these guys led in two of the three top categories.  Five of the nine are roughly the same age or younger than our guys.  However, nearly all of them were established NHL starters before age 27)
It's no coincidence these guys all play for good teams, but that's a two way street.....better goalies lead to better teams just as better teams goalies have better stats.


It's not fair to compare our guys to just the top 9 goalies as far as performance and stats go, but my point was the relative development age of these guys.  Also - all the old guys on this list have been THE starter on their team for several years; Anderson, Bobrovsky, Kuemper


The one freak of nature is Mike Smith - 40 years old and starter for EDM.  However he only started 29 games this year - I am assuming the original starter (Mikko Koskinen) went down with injury?  I could not find any info on him, but he played in late April..


Flip a coin, pick one as a good backup, sell Carlson, buy an NHL goalie.  I don't see us finding a great one for the funds we will have, but then I don't see us moving Carlson either.  Really curious what might have been if the King had actually played for us for a year and helped develop these guys....and been a reliable step in for a playoff series.  Life of a Cap fan....what if, what if, what it.....

[Mickstix]

They MUST find a new goalie coach, regardless who they have between the pipes. Every goalie we've had, since Korn left, has broken.

[Beaglefan2]

On Carlson, not that Ted would allow him to be traded, but if he did, I believe Dylan has a no-trade clause or a limited trade clause.


I actually think the foursome of Orlov, Fever, TVR and Jensen is a really good start.  If we just had two solid physical guys to go with them. I would really love it if Fever and TVR put on about 10 pounds of muscle.

[waynerivers]

On a side note, FLA was the first team in 20 years to win a series without scoring a PP goal.  That's pretty sad company for the Caps to be in.


Speaking of our vaunted defense, most of them had a rotten series:


TVR  +3
Schultz +2
Orlov -4
Jensen -5
Carlson -5
Fehervary -7

[richkrt99]

On Carlson, not that Ted would allow him to be traded, but if he did, I believe Dylan has a no-trade clause or a limited trade clause.


I actually think the foursome of Orlov, Fever, TVR and Jensen is a really good start.  If we just had two solid physical guys to go with them. I would really love it if Fever and TVR put on about 10 pounds of muscle.

I'm good with that as a start.  I hated when we traded Ziggy to Philthy.  I thought he showed promise and he was big and physical.  Then they sent Dillon packing and left us with no physical D.


I think Fever could be really good and I could see him being more physical (and possibly adding that 10lbs) but the trend in the NHL is faster and lighter not beefier.  TVR - not sure why he hasn't put on weight in his career - think he could use it; 6'-3", 190lbs. Also perplexed about him because he couldn't crack the lineup last year and this year he's been really solid.  Not like he's a youngin - he's 30.


Dylan does indeed have a M-NTC.  year 2022 he submits a 10 team No trade list....so basically can't be treaded to those 10 teams.
(It's a 15-team list from 2018-2022 and 10-team list 2022-2026)


NOT THAT the CAPS will EVER trade him.


I think it's gonna be letting Shultz walk (assuming he gets a better deal somewhere) then moving some other minor pieces to try and squeeze room for a mediocre bargain GT and a D to replace Sgt Shultz.
Caps will sign Sammy, and let Vitek go.


Then we will have the same squad as last year with a few minor changes and the same end result.  The biggest factor is the question with Backy, but I do not believe that will be answered in time to do any good for next season.  We shall see.